March 2024 Weather in the PNW

[Rubus Leucodermis]

9 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

The Alaska town I'd like to visit sometime is Whittier. Access is via a shared road/rail tunnel. Most of the town lives in a single multistory building.

Hyder would also be fun. Access via Canada. No road access to the rest of Alaska. Phones in town have Canadian numbers because all utilities come via Canada as well.

No customs check to enter Hyder because what can you do but return the way you came. But there is a Canadian customs station going the other way because residents of nearby Stewart BC were using Hyder PO boxes to dodge import duties.

[ShawniganLake]

28 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Lmao. If we are taking this incredible terrain bleed at face value I am in the DARK maroon. 

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

 

By the way, how much snow did @AlTahoe end up getting?

[ShawniganLake]

16 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I think it would really give ShawniganPr*ck and Co some good material if we actually were. Pull your weight!

Classy as ever.  Not sure if you’ve managed to wrap your giant head around the fact that enjoying some nice weather doesn’t actually make the nice weather happen. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z GEFS looks pretty manageable with the ridge. I do notice there are still a handful of members that want to break it down very quickly.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z GEFS looks pretty manageable with the ridge. I do notice there are still a handful of members that want to break it down very quickly.

Very good model consensus for a good torch at the onset, though. Quite the strong signal this far out. Of course the signal gets fuzzy eventually. Almost always does.

And don't worry, based on climo there is sure to be another cold trough lurking just around the corner. What we are seeing is merely the opening act of the traditional spring tease.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

37 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS goes back to troughing after 300 hours.    

Our new overlord EuroAI disagrees. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Quite a nice sunrise earlier. Position of the sun is definitely shifting. Just a month or so ago it was rising behind Mt Hood.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Our new overlord EuroAI disagrees. 

12Z ECMWF is solid with the ridge at 240 hours.     Chasing individual GEFS members is probably meaningless. 

 

[TT-SEA]

Up to 50 in North Bend with some filtered sun now.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is solid with the ridge at 240 hours.     Chasing individual GEFS members is probably meaningless. 

 

 My garden, flowers, and orchard are drooling...

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

The new EuroAI is awesome. 360 hrs, 4 times a day and free on Pivotal. Next winter model riding is going to be AWESOME.

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

 My garden, flowers, and orchard are drooling...

What disgusting imagery.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

What disgusting imagery.

lol, you are insufferable. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

lol, you are insufferable. 

This place certainly is today. Oh well, the worm will turn. 

[Phil]

Summer already lasts way too long. Why rush it?

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Phil said:

Summer already lasts way too long. Why rush it?

Prepare yourself for a preferential beat down.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

This place certainly is today. Oh well, the worm will turn. 

But no one does what you do even when the weather tables are turned.   

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Prepare yourself for a preferential beat down.

Phil lives in a summer hellish climate... his perspective makes sense to me. 

And no one is saying people's preferences are wrong except for you.    You can want 50-degree rain all summer... whatever.  No one should care.

[iFred]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I think it would really give ShawniganPr*ck and Co some good material if we actually were. Pull your weight!

It's ok bud, he isn't allowed into the United States, so he can't hurt you.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

16 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

What disgusting imagery.

Spring is coming and it's going to get warmer.

Then comes summer and it will be warmer yet.

Sucks to be you.

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, iFred said:

It's ok bud, he isn't allowed into the United States, so he can't hurt you.

I still watch my back for 7ft tall angry Dutch guys carrying a sun lamp. Luckily it’s pretty easy to hear their wooden shoes coming.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

16 minutes ago, Phil said:

Summer already lasts way too long. Why rush it?

Its going to be mid 60s and sunny for the first time in 6 months. Perfection. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

23 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

This place certainly is today. Oh well, the worm will turn. 

In November. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS is more solid with the ridge at 240 hours compared to its 00Z run.   

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

11 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Spring is coming and it's going to get warmer.

Then comes summer and it will be warmer yet.

Sucks to be you.

My pool is always open if yall need to cool down. 

[ShawniganLake]

13 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I still watch my back for 7ft tall angry Dutch guys carrying a sun lamp. Luckily it’s pretty easy to hear their wooden shoes coming.

I’m only 2 meters tall not 7 ft.  But you might have me confused with someone else.  Definitely not an angry person.  
 

You sure you aren’t freaking out about the seasons turning.  You seem a little on edge today.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

6 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

In November. 

If we have to wait than long until the next rain or troughing, I think the gardens of Xanadu will be too dehydrated to spare any drool.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

If we have to wait than long until the next rain or troughing, I think the gardens of Xanadu will be too dehydrated to spare any drool.

No one here is against some rain, but we just went through 5 months of rain. We can handle a week or two of sun. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I’m only 2 meters tall not 7 ft.  But you might have me confused with someone else.  Definitely not an angry person.  
 

You sure you aren’t freaking out about the seasons turning.  You seem a little on edge today.  

This is how I picture @Cascadia_Wx today. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

I’m only 2 meters tall not 7 ft.  But you might have me confused with someone else.  Definitely not an angry person.  
 

You sure you aren’t freaking out about the seasons turning.  You seem a little on edge today.  

I really don’t want to write a manifesto on my preferences every other day, but I love spring and summer. It would just be nice not to sit under a stagnant ridge all warm season and choke on smoke and drought. I’m sure you already know I feel this way. It’s not an unreasonable desire. The 50s and rain all summer thing is just strawman crap  

The upcoming ridge will be fine I’m sure, and despite all the mischaracterizations I will be out enjoying the weather just as much as anyone. It would be nice if it wasn’t a harbinger of our warm season pattern, though. Although judging by how things have gone in recent years, it may be.

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

No one here is against some rain, but we just went through 5 months of rain. We can handle a week or two of sun. 

A week or two of sun in March would be pretty exceptional. I have to remind myself that you haven’t lived here long.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I really don’t want to write a manifesto on my preferences every other day, but I love spring and summer. It would just be nice not to sit under a stagnant ridge all warm season and choke on smoke and drought. I’m sure you already know I feel this way. It’s not an unreasonable desire. The 50s and rain all summer thing is just strawman crap  

The upcoming ridge will be fine I’m sure, and despite all the mischaracterizations I will be out enjoying the weather just as much as anyone. It would be nice if it wasn’t a harbinger of our warm season pattern, though. Although judging by how things have gone in recent years, it may be.

While this is possible, it isn't likely. April-June are great rain producing months. With the Nino collapse I'm sure we will do okay. Smoke forecast is way too variable to predict.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS... ridge stays in place through the end of the run better than the 00Z run.  

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

A week or two of sun in March would be pretty exceptional. I have to remind myself that you haven’t lived here long.

It is true, I am not a native. As a southerner I love the sun. I am also in a location that doesn't "bake" like most of you due to moderation from the strait. So when a ridge comes I am always 10-15 degrees less than the urban areas or the southern Oregon area. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

6 hours ago, Phil said:

WxBell has added the ECMWF AIFS. Runs 4X/day and goes out to 360hrs. Interested to see how it performs compared to the operational ECMWF HRES and EPS.

 

5 hours ago, Phil said:

 

The AIFS is already out on tropicaltidbits and pivotal too. It looks like the upgraded EURO AI version is already better than the IFS and GraphCast. It has the highest 500 hPa anomaly correlation scores and the lowest root-mean-square error for 2 m temperatures.

 

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/aifs-blog/2024/first-update-aifs

 

[Phishy Wx]

4 hours ago, Phil said:

 

 

 

GFS is still a turd.  Americans are clueless apparently

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS... ridge stays in place through the end of the run better than the 00Z run.  

Some hints of it sliding West at the end of the run. By that time we will be ready for the rain. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

It is true, I am not a native. As a southerner I love the sun. I am also in a location that doesn't "bake" like most of you due to moderation from the strait. So when a ridge comes I am always 10-15 degrees less than the urban areas or the southern Oregon area. 

So you moved to the foothills of one of the rainiest mountain ranges in the lower 48, at close to 49 degrees latitude?

[MossMan]

Sprinkles happening! First non frozen precip since last weekend.