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Uh huh. 28.2°F.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 7.5"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Taken at 12:30PM, on the south side of Ankeny Iowa.  At least 6" on the ground.

First flakes of the season here in St. Paul today. It came down pretty heavy for 5-10 minutes this morning. .2” officially at the airport. 

Fall in the northwoods!

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It got to 27.9°F on my balcony before WAA kicked in in the form of a South wind. Apparently the airport got to 26.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 7.5"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Made it down to 40.1F according to a local reporting station...coolest morning of the season...I'm about to go outside and go for a walk and soak in that chilly air!  

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@Tom

I see the Frost Advisory is only for N Cook. That's your area too right?

Meanwhile, I've lost track of what number this is for mby, 3rd or 4th? Talk about flipped script from recent early autumn regimes. Wrt the "clipper" it looks like we were both right, it's actually a 2-SLP system.

 

20201004 11am Surf.PNG

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I mentioned how the very cold mornings have caused trees even here in town to burst into color. This one is right behind me at the school yard. Saturday morning's brief sun had it glowing so I took a pic while walking the pup. After the overnight wetness dried up and just before the evening rain I snuck in a much needed lawn mowing. Was glad I could.

20201003_112319.jpg

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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26 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

@Tom

I see the Frost Advisory is only for N Cook. That's your area too right?

Meanwhile, I've lost track of what number this is for mby, 3rd or 4th? Talk about flipped script from recent early autumn regimes. Wrt the "clipper" it looks like we were both right, it's actually a 2-SLP system.

 

20201004 11am Surf.PNG

That’s too funny, I was going to post this same map from wunderground from earlier this morning when it looked a little different.  Ya, no doubt, this Autumn has certainly got that real autumnal feel to it.  Looking forward to the warmth that’s coming.  I still have some cucumbers and green tomatoes I want to harvest!

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25 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I mentioned how the very cold mornings have caused trees even here in town to burst into color. This one is right behind me at the school yard. Saturday morning's brief sun had it glowing so I took a pic while walking the pup. After the overnight wetness dried up and just before the evening rain I snuck in a much needed lawn mowing. Was glad I could.

20201003_112319.jpg

Looks like a sugar maple. I love those trees except for their slow growth. Their fall colors vary from bright yellow to shades of brilliant orange red. 

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This is off topic. I’ve been hibernating at home for the last two weeks. I’m thinking I likely have COVID-19 this time. I haven’t tested but I had about all the symptoms, and still can’t smell anything! The worst was the bad headache I had one night which cleared up once I took a nasal decongestant. Also had a low grade fever which made me achy all over.  I’m almost back to normal now, except for a lot of coughing. I thought I had this virus last spring, but I guess it was just a sore throat (no sore throat this time) and cold that time. Seems to be another virus outbreak around here kinda like last spring. Some more local people have tested positive including my uncle and his wife who are in their mid 80s. My mom who is the same age also seems to have it, but she wasn’t as sick as I was, thankfully. My brother who sometimes has asthma problems had it less severe as well. So far, only one person I know was hospitalized. For me this wasn’t worse than other sicknesses I’ve had over the year’s and I’m hoping it’s over and done with. Symptoms started a few days after I was in CR.  so maybe I picked it up from there? The local paper stated that my county and another one in central Iowa had the highest per capita infection rate in the world at one point in September. Not sure if I believe that though.

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53 minutes ago, Sparky said:

This is off topic. I’ve been hibernating at home for the last two weeks. I’m thinking I likely have COVID-19 this time. I haven’t tested but I had about all the symptoms, and still can’t smell anything! The worst was the bad headache I had one night which cleared up once I took a nasal decongestant. Also had a low grade fever which made me achy all over.  I’m almost back to normal now, except for a lot of coughing. I thought I had this virus last spring, but I guess it was just a sore throat (no sore throat this time) and cold that time. Seems to be another virus outbreak around here kinda like last spring. Some more local people have tested positive including my uncle and his wife who are in their mid 80s. My mom who is the same age also seems to have it, but she wasn’t as sick as I was, thankfully. My brother who sometimes has asthma problems had it less severe as well. So far, only one person I know was hospitalized. For me this wasn’t worse than other sicknesses I’ve had over the year’s and I’m hoping it’s over and done with. Symptoms started a few days after I was in CR.  so maybe I picked it up from there? The local paper stated that my county and another one in central Iowa had the highest per capita infection rate in the world at one point in September. Not sure if I believe that though.

Glad to hear you're doing well!

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 7.5"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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1 hour ago, Sparky said:

This is off topic. I’ve been hibernating at home for the last two weeks. I’m thinking I likely have COVID-19 this time. I haven’t tested but I had about all the symptoms, and still can’t smell anything! The worst was the bad headache I had one night which cleared up once I took a nasal decongestant. Also had a low grade fever which made me achy all over.  I’m almost back to normal now, except for a lot of coughing. I thought I had this virus last spring, but I guess it was just a sore throat (no sore throat this time) and cold that time. Seems to be another virus outbreak around here kinda like last spring. Some more local people have tested positive including my uncle and his wife who are in their mid 80s. My mom who is the same age also seems to have it, but she wasn’t as sick as I was, thankfully. My brother who sometimes has asthma problems had it less severe as well. So far, only one person I know was hospitalized. For me this wasn’t worse than other sicknesses I’ve had over the year’s and I’m hoping it’s over and done with. Symptoms started a few days after I was in CR.  so maybe I picked it up from there? The local paper stated that my county and another one in central Iowa had the highest per capita infection rate in the world at one point in September. Not sure if I believe that though.

Glad to hear your doing better...eat that organic food from your garden and you’ll be just fine!  I’ll be honest, I thought I was getting a sore throat yesterday after I went for a long walk.  The colder house also made it feel sorta chilly but then I felt better after I drank some herbal tea and flipped on the furnace.  I took 3 drops of Oil of Oregano this morning and feel great!  Nature cures!

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7 hours ago, Tom said:

Glad to hear your doing better...eat that organic food from your garden and you’ll be just fine!  I’ll be honest, I thought I was getting a sore throat yesterday after I went for a long walk.  The colder house also made it feel sorta chilly but then I felt better after I drank some herbal tea and flipped on the furnace.  I took 3 drops of Oil of Oregano this morning and feel great!  Nature cures!

My allergies have definitely been acting up recently.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 7.5"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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It's the coldest morning of the season with a local wx station reporting 33.3F.  Brrrr!  When I was making my coffee a bit ago, I opened up my backyard door and stepped outside on my deck and took in a deep breath to soak in that chilly air!  I don't know about you guys, but sometimes I just have to "feel" that cold air from nature. 

 

 

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The official low at Grand Rapids looks to have been 32. Here at my house the low was 34. And there was some fog. I am not a big fan of naming winter storms, unless the storm is really extreme. I am not sure what my criteria would be for a named winter storms but some examples would the the storms of 1967, 1978 the so called Groundhog storm of 2011. There would be others but you get the idea.

Well here are the Weather Chanel names for this winters storms.

https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2020-09-30-winter-storm-names-2020-2021

 

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GEFS shows a cooldown as early as day 10. EPS is back to miserable boringness.

There's really nothing better to do right now than live and die by every run of every model.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 7.5"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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34 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

GEFS shows a cooldown as early as day 10. EPS is back to miserable boringness.

There's really nothing better to do right now than live and die by every run of every model.

Ya, was surprised this morning to see the 00z EPS back off and then the GEFS trend colder and with more blocking.  I'd pay attn to the GEFS trends so far as it would fit the idea of where the blocking is growing stronger as we get closer in time.


Check this out...the placement where the warming at 10mb is blossoming right about the Sept 24th-25th...correlates quite well where the GEFS are trending stronger with regards to HP placement across NW NAMER...

 

Northern Hemisphere 10 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

 

06z GEFS SLP trends....

 

gfs-ens_mslptrend_namer_21.png

 

 

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Earlier this morning I went for a walk around 7:00am and I will confirm we had our 1st Frost of the year!  It was wonderful to see the frosty landscape and rooftops along with steam coming out of the chimney's of houses.  The wind was so calm and the skies were amazing blue.  #AutumnIsHere

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On 10/3/2020 at 7:13 PM, jaster220 said:

@Niko

Nice pics bud. I didn't realize it's so arid on those islands. Almost no trees and even very little vegetation. Polar opposite of Michigan. Food sure looks tasty tho. I really like the old world architecture as well. Does one need to know how to speak Greek, or is English commonly used there?

Its extremely dry there in the Summertime. All ya see is dry heat, sun and deep blue skies w temps in the 80s and 90s on the islands and 90s and 100s in Athens, sometimes on a rare occasion, Athens hits the 110s.

Almost everyone there now knows how to speak the English language. If you ever decide to visit there, you should have no problem communicating.

 

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On 10/4/2020 at 5:34 AM, Tom said:

One of the places I have on my bucket list to visit.  Love Greek food and great pics!

Good choice. Just be aware that you will gain a few extra pounds when you visit there. You simply cannot avoid Greek food.

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Currently at 48F under deep blue skies. Dipped into the 30s once again. I have been noticing this year that nighttime lows are a lot colder than last year. 🤔 Great stretch of dry weather this week w temps starting BN and going towards AN. Possible 70s returning not outta the question.

 

Btw: the tropics are getting juiced up again. We are dealing w Gamma now and on its heals, Delta could be posing a major threat to the US this time. Have to keep an eye on that.

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22 hours ago, jaster220 said:

I mentioned how the very cold mornings have caused trees even here in town to burst into color. This one is right behind me at the school yard. Saturday morning's brief sun had it glowing so I took a pic while walking the pup. After the overnight wetness dried up and just before the evening rain I snuck in a much needed lawn mowing. Was glad I could.

20201003_112319.jpg

Excellent pic! "Tis the season." 😄

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1 hour ago, FAR_Weather said:

GEFS shows a cooldown as early as day 10. EPS is back to miserable boringness.

There's really nothing better to do right now than live and die by every run of every model.

Yep, my forecast is showing nothing, but deep blue skies throughout the extended 10 day outlook. Temps vary throughout. I'd say, lets enjoy this, b4 Winter arrives. Tbh, yesterday, that weak rainstorm felt good. It was so Autumn-like. Temps remained in the low 50s w wet conditions most of the day.

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Some of the models seem to be latching on to a much colder looking weekend around these parts.  Greenland block doing some of its dirty work???  I first noticed the ICON jump on it, then last nights 00z UKIE showed it and now the GFS is sorta trending towards it.  The 00z Euro did as well last night but not as much as the ICON is atm.  This is a good test to see how the models begin handling the blocking as the cold season moves on.

 

 

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What's rain?

Today
Sunny, with a high near 80. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 18 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph.
Tonight
Clear, with a low around 49. South southwest wind 6 to 10 mph becoming northwest after midnight.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 80. West southwest wind 5 to 13 mph.
Tuesday Night
Clear, with a low around 55. Southwest wind 5 to 8 mph.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 80. Light and variable wind becoming northeast around 6 mph in the morning.
Wednesday Night
Clear, with a low around 52.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 78.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 61.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 85.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 59.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 81.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 58.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 80.
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Just now, OmahaSnowFan said:

What's rain?

Today
Sunny, with a high near 80. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 18 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph.
Tonight
Clear, with a low around 49. South southwest wind 6 to 10 mph becoming northwest after midnight.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 80. West southwest wind 5 to 13 mph.
Tuesday Night
Clear, with a low around 55. Southwest wind 5 to 8 mph.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 80. Light and variable wind becoming northeast around 6 mph in the morning.
Wednesday Night
Clear, with a low around 52.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 78.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 61.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 85.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 59.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 81.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 58.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 80.

Looks like a forecast you see out in AZ in mid/late October!

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GFS has looks to have a system around D7. By that time, it'll be around a month since the Sept system. Lincoln has recieved 0.15" since then. It's the GooFy-S, but it's something to watch at least. 

 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2016-17: 7.5"

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.6"  

 

Average: 25.9"

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Euro completely misses Eastern NE with rain on the D7 system, I get absolutely drenched. Cooldown for the entire plains portion of the sub after that.

One thing that's weird to see is the warmth of the system. It's rare to see lows pass to the North of here, but that's what one of the lows does before it phases in MN/MB on Monday. As a result, it looks like I'll be in the upper 60s/lower 70s during the entire event. 

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 7.5"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Looks like the warmer air this upcoming weekend wont be as mild as once predicted. It is looking cooler, although, Sat could be the only day in the low 70s, b4 dropping into the 60s for highs on Sunday and into Columbus Day.

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58 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Is the day 7 storm the beginning of the new LRC? That seems to be a bit later than usual.

You don't need a storm system to dictate the actual date of the 1st day of the new LRC.  It just so happens that this year our first storm to "track" in the new LRC is a bit farther out.  Instead, we are dealing with a ridge to open up the "new" pattern, however, I kinda feel like the system that tracked through this past weekend was a blend of the two patterns.

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Euro weeklies have turned into a joke, holy hell.

Not to spoil it for anyone, but it shows warmth across the entire CONUS at D46. Much like the past 251870 runs.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 7.5"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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14 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

GEFS shows a cooldown as early as day 10. EPS is back to miserable boringness.

There's really nothing better to do right now than live and die by every run of every model.

The weather is so boring I’m not even paying much attention to the models. I rarely read AFDs since the last wet spell a month ago.

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I’m liking the temps for this week much better. Nice weather like this should produce nicer fall colors. Clouds or freezing temperatures cause the opposite to occur. 

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It is gorgeous right now outside. Temp at 44F under crystal clear skies. Just finished a bonfire. Definitely had a light jacket on, listened to some soft music, had a little wine to go w it, and a couple of side snacks. I just luv that bonfire smell.

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It appears many locals not only had their 1st Frosts but also their 1st Freeze of the season yesterday morning. Some neighborhoods very close to mine dipped to around 30F.  I'm looking forward to Indian Summer weather this entire week!

 

FEATURE10062020.jpg

 

 

 

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This post may be a bit long as there is a LOT going on in this changing weather pattern and it's looking quite exciting, especially when you consider what potential  this all means as we head deeper into the cold season.  Today, is on average the 1st day of the new LRC in the mid latitudes (where we live) as the sun has set up north near the North Pole where the new LRC pattern is already in progress....it sure is looking fascinating!

 

So, here we are on Oct 6th and taking a look at the 500mb vorticity map below some interesting features I see that bode well for our folks out west.  Take a look at that little feature off the west coast of Cali (albeit it weak). I've been following this energy over the past week and it holds a big clue to what this will mean down the road in the colder months as the jet strengthens.  What does this mean for us??  IMO, this is a clue to me that in December the jet stream will be targeting Cali as LRC cycle #2 cycles through.  Some of the climate models have S Cali bone dry this winter but this may not be the case as we will probably have systems target this region throughout the winter months.

The second feature I'd like to point out is in the Caribbean where we may have a major Hurricane strike the GOM coastline by this weekend.  I originally thought the Cali wave would develop out in the Plains later this week but the ridge is to strong.  Could this behave differently next cycle??  Yes, it very well could.  The next major hurricane to develop in the GOM later this week will be an interesting GOM connection in the winter months.

Thirdly, the good Ol' North American Vortex is back and it means business this season.  It will not only lock in the cold for our continent this cold season but I'm seeing some peculiar signals that it will also "pump" the Greenland/N Atlantic Ridge this season.

gfs_z500_vort_namer_2.png

 

 

As we move forward a few days, the 1st significant storm system of the new LRC is coming into the picture late this weekend and more so early next week.  The models had ZERO clue on the Blocking pattern that is now showing impressive signals which will likely be signature features, or rather, long term-long wave patterns.  Have you noticed how much farther south this energy tracks through the Rockies this weekend into early next week???  Blocking is looking prevalent and this is the perfect slot whereby you want storms to track during the heart of Winter.   Knowing seasonal variances in the jet stream will likely shift south, I'm intrigued by this storm for many reasons but lets see it develop first.

 

1.gif

 

 

I'll finish the post with this comment because I feel it is important for the long haul.  Did the models just drink the "cool aid"???  Boy, was this a BIG miss by both the American and Euro in the longer range as they had no idea of the magnitude of blocking that looks to be on the agenda.  Hello Greenland Block and SW Ridge (creates a unique "Slider" storm track) just off the Cali coast.  The result from this major flip in the models overnight is a MUCH colder and stormier pattern across our Sub.  Remember those Bearing Sea storms during the end of Sept???  They are poised to cycle through and this will be our 1st one early next week.

2.gif

 

00z EPS Day 10 500mb pattern...had zero clue of the W NAMER ridge last week as it was portraying a +EPO which has now turned negative.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png

1.png

 

If the models are this bad handling the blocking patterns, how could we trust the LR climate models that pretty much show barely any high lat blocking???  Needless to say, it's going to be a fun season from what I'm seeing very early on.  Get ready to see some flakes fly for some of you farther west and north.

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On 10/4/2020 at 11:58 AM, Sparky said:

This is off topic. I’ve been hibernating at home for the last two weeks. I’m thinking I likely have COVID-19 this time. I haven’t tested but I had about all the symptoms, and still can’t smell anything! The worst was the bad headache I had one night which cleared up once I took a nasal decongestant. Also had a low grade fever which made me achy all over.  I’m almost back to normal now, except for a lot of coughing. I thought I had this virus last spring, but I guess it was just a sore throat (no sore throat this time) and cold that time. Seems to be another virus outbreak around here kinda like last spring. Some more local people have tested positive including my uncle and his wife who are in their mid 80s. My mom who is the same age also seems to have it, but she wasn’t as sick as I was, thankfully. My brother who sometimes has asthma problems had it less severe as well. So far, only one person I know was hospitalized. For me this wasn’t worse than other sicknesses I’ve had over the year’s and I’m hoping it’s over and done with. Symptoms started a few days after I was in CR.  so maybe I picked it up from there? The local paper stated that my county and another one in central Iowa had the highest per capita infection rate in the world at one point in September. Not sure if I believe that though.

I have been in the same boat Sparky, my wife tested positive for COVID-19 a couple weeks ago but she since has made a full recovery and recently tested negative for the virus. 

Over the weekend I developed symptoms myself, including losing all sense of taste and smell, headache, and sore throat from time to time. Other than that I have felt fine, no fever. I took a test on Friday through Test Nebraska, however as of this morning I am still waiting on those results. The worst part so far is that I started a new job last week, however I have been able to do training and the first couple of weeks worth of work virtually. 

Fingers crossed that we both make a full recovery from the virus. 

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The recent rain has really made the grass grow. So yesterday I cut the grass and while doing so when I went to move one of the solar lights I have in the yard I disturbed a bee and thus I got stung. I know that is not a big deal but that is the first time I have been stung by a bee in many years. And yes it did sting. I have also noticed that the rain has slowed down the color change so now there is some trees with near full color. Some trees that are almost bare and some trees with full green leaves. At this time it is clear and 52 here.

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Currently at 55F under mostly cloudy skies. Colors are showing nicely here, but not near peak just yet. Looking forward to a nice little warm-up coming blended in w cool to chilly evenings. There is a very slight chance for my area to receive some shower activity from a CF tomorrow, but I would not hold my breathe on it. Most of the wet weather will be confined to my north. Beautiful weather is in stored for many. Lets all enjoy it now while we can. Ol' Man Winter will be here b4 ya know it.

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17 hours ago, Tom said:

You don't need a storm system to dictate the actual date of the 1st day of the new LRC.  It just so happens that this year our first storm to "track" in the new LRC is a bit farther out.  Instead, we are dealing with a ridge to open up the "new" pattern, however, I kinda feel like the system that tracked through this past weekend was a blend of the two patterns.

Yeah that makes sense. Seems like in years past it was always a storm that kicked off the new LRC so I was naturally just looking for that haha. 

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Delta expected to become a CAT4 at some point in the GOM. Has eyes on LA for landfall. Lets see how this all plays out.

 

FYI: Hawkeye mentioned previously that Zeta is the most named storms that the tropics have ever reached, so lets see if we break that record this year. I have a good feeling that we might.

 

 

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1 hour ago, westMJim said:

The recent rain has really made the grass grow. So yesterday I cut the grass and while doing so when I went to move one of the solar lights I have in the yard I disturbed a bee and thus I got stung. I know that is not a big deal but that is the first time I have been stung by a bee in many years. And yes it did sting. I have also noticed that the rain has slowed down the color change so now there is some trees with near full color. Some trees that are almost bare and some trees with full green leaves. At this time it is clear and 52 here.

Ouch! Do you know if it was a honey bee 🐝 or a bumblebee? I’m told honey bees die if they sting and they leave their stinger where they stung. I’ve been stung by both types of bees, but not in years. 

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2 hours ago, Bryan1117 said:

I have been in the same boat Sparky, my wife tested positive for COVID-19 a couple weeks ago but she since has made a full recovery and recently tested negative for the virus. 

Over the weekend I developed symptoms myself, including losing all sense of taste and smell, headache, and sore throat from time to time. Other than that I have felt fine, no fever. I took a test on Friday through Test Nebraska, however as of this morning I am still waiting on those results. The worst part so far is that I started a new job last week, however I have been able to do training and the first couple of weeks worth of work virtually. 

Fingers crossed that we both make a full recovery from the virus. 

Get well my friend!

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5 minutes ago, Sparky said:

Ouch! Do you know if it was a honey bee 🐝 or a bumblebee? I’m told honey bees die if they sting and they leave their stinger where they stung. I’ve been stung by both types of bees, but not in years. 

I did not see or do I feel a stinger so it not have been a honey bee. I put ice on it and the swelling has gone down.

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

This post may be a bit long as there is a LOT going on in this changing weather pattern and it's looking quite exciting, especially when you consider what potential  this all means as we head deeper into the cold season.  Today, is on average the 1st day of the new LRC in the mid latitudes (where we live) as the sun has set up north near the North Pole where the new LRC pattern is already in progress....it sure is looking fascinating!

 

So, here we are on Oct 6th and taking a look at the 500mb vorticity map below some interesting features I see that bode well for our folks out west.  Take a look at that little feature off the west coast of Cali (albeit it weak). I've been following this energy over the past week and it holds a big clue to what this will mean down the road in the colder months as the jet strengthens.  What does this mean for us??  IMO, this is a clue to me that in December the jet stream will be targeting Cali as LRC cycle #2 cycles through.  Some of the climate models have S Cali bone dry this winter but this may not be the case as we will probably have systems target this region throughout the winter months.

The second feature I'd like to point out is in the Caribbean where we may have a major Hurricane strike the GOM coastline by this weekend.  I originally thought the Cali wave would develop out in the Plains later this week but the ridge is to strong.  Could this behave differently next cycle??  Yes, it very well could.  The next major hurricane to develop in the GOM later this week will be an interesting GOM connection in the winter months.

Thirdly, the good Ol' North American Vortex is back and it means business this season.  It will not only lock in the cold for our continent this cold season but I'm seeing some peculiar signals that it will also "pump" the Greenland/N Atlantic Ridge this season.

gfs_z500_vort_namer_2.png

 

 

As we move forward a few days, the 1st significant storm system of the new LRC is coming into the picture late this weekend and more so early next week.  The models had ZERO clue on the Blocking pattern that is now showing impressive signals which will likely be signature features, or rather, long term-long wave patterns.  Have you noticed how much farther south this energy tracks through the Rockies this weekend into early next week???  Blocking is looking prevalent and this is the perfect slot whereby you want storms to track during the heart of Winter.   Knowing seasonal variances in the jet stream will likely shift south, I'm intrigued by this storm for many reasons but lets see it develop first.

 

1.gif

 

 

I'll finish the post with this comment because I feel it is important for the long haul.  Did the models just drink the "cool aid"???  Boy, was this a BIG miss by both the American and Euro in the longer range as they had no idea of the magnitude of blocking that looks to be on the agenda.  Hello Greenland Block and SW Ridge (creates a unique "Slider" storm track) just off the Cali coast.  The result from this major flip in the models overnight is a MUCH colder and stormier pattern across our Sub.  Remember those Bearing Sea storms during the end of Sept???  They are poised to cycle through and this will be our 1st one early next week.

2.gif

 

00z EPS Day 10 500mb pattern...had zero clue of the W NAMER ridge last week as it was portraying a +EPO which has now turned negative.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png

1.png

 

If the models are this bad handling the blocking patterns, how could we trust the LR climate models that pretty much show barely any high lat blocking???  Needless to say, it's going to be a fun season from what I'm seeing very early on.  Get ready to see some flakes fly for some of you farther west and north.

Good to see the 12z runs are digging that storm further south and bringing some much needed rain to Neb and Iowa.  The Dec version could be a real good snow producer for many on here.

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I just got word one of my close friends landed into CUN and he asking me..."Is there a Hurricane coming?"  Ummm, yaaa buddy!  I told him to take videos and pictures of this monster that's heading his way.  #StormChaserVito

 

 

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Today's 12z runs are getting rather interesting for a couple of reasons:

 

1) Remnants of Hurricane Delta may track farther west than previous runs towards the OHV and/or parts of the eastern MW/GL's region

2) That storm early next week is digging farther south into Rockies and eventually the central Plains

12z Ukie...

 

500hv.conus.png

 

 

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I hope SEMI gets at least some moisture from Delta. Rainfall here could be used.

Key Note: Delta’s rapid intensification from 40 mph winds to 110 mph in just 24 hours is the most an October Atlantic named storm has ever intensified, since Hurricane Wilma back in 2005. Wow!

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