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October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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Really liking the long range GFS. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Here's the snow thus far

By far the most impressive October storm I've witnessed here since 2012 when I bought property. Ended up with 9 inches of powder and is currently 22 degrees down from 24 at 9am. 

Just catching up to everything this morning. I think given that the user base of the forum has been somewhat of a close knit community for 15+ years, there is a bit of leeway given when it comes to be

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21 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Really liking the long range GFS. 

It would be a nice change of pace to get some storms going again after another pretty dry period (in Oregon). 

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Good morning

6z GFS Gorge/Cascades east was considerably colder than 00z. Nice to see.

 

Day 5.5

gfs_T850_nwus_23.png

00z GFS

gfs_T850_nwus_24.png

00z EPS was also a bit colder than previous runs, especially Gorge/Cascades east.

Day 5 - 850mb temp anomaly past 4 runs

10-20-20 00z EPS Day 5 850s Temp Anomaly past 4 runs.gif

12z NAM running now....

12z GFS in 1 hour 36 minutes

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7 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

And Sunday has a chance for SEA to see their earliest 30 degree low since 1949.  Pretty intriguing.

To add to the intrigue... Billings October record snowfall is from 1949 with 23.1". They are already at 11.9" and will likely shatter the record by this weekend.

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Cold Season 2020/21:

Total snowfall: 22.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 12.0"

Highest snow depth: 14.0"

Coldest high: 9.0º

Coldest low: -5.1º

Number of subzero days: 2

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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2 minutes ago, Kayla said:

To add to the intrigue... Billings October record snowfall is from 1949 with 23.1" They are already at 11.9" and will likely shatter the record by this weekend.

Thanks for this post. I saw how much they got the other day and then what is to come this week and thought, "that cannot be normal."

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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12z NAM - Already at Day 1 I can see the block and more notably the base of the block is a notch or two west, the contours in AB/BC to just off the BC coast is a few notches further west, and the block is a bit stronger as well. That may not look like much, but if these notches and small incremental changes are evident for several runs it can end up making a significant difference as I have documented many times in the past.

Past 3 runs (Improvements noted since 00z NAM run)

10-20-20 12z NAM 500mb HA Day 1 past 3 runs.gif

 

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7 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Not what it shows... and the ECMWF is pretty good at inversions.     500mb pattern will probably change of course.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-4016000.png

Might need to unwinterize the boat! 

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We had 0.12" yesterday. Up to 4.5" on the month. Seems unlikely we hit our average of 6.29", but certainly not a top 10 dry October here. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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A seasonably mild low of 47 this Tuesday morning. Around Portland we get another dry calm day with a mix of clouds and sun with highs right around average in the upper 50s/ low 60s. At the coast there's a marine layer this morning but will see that burn off with increasing sunshine and highs right around the upper 50s. In the cascades it's a mild morning with a freezing level clear above timberline, 38 there currently. Dry over the passes as well with highs around the upper 40s in Government Camp.

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8 minutes ago, El_Nina said:

A seasonably mild low of 47 this Tuesday morning. Around Portland we get another dry calm day with a mix of clouds and sun with highs right around average in the upper 50s/ low 60s. At the coast there's a marine layer this morning but will see that burn off with increasing sunshine and highs right around the upper 50s. In the cascades it's a mild morning with a freezing level clear above timberline, 38 there currently. Dry over the passes as well with highs around the upper 40s in Government Camp.

Is this a tryout for the local news stations?

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24 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Are those all your pups? 

Yep the one on the deck and the one closest to the deck are about 13 years old now, the one furthest away is my young one at 5 years old. Time flies. 😫

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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yep the one on the deck and the one closest to the deck are about 13 years old now, the one furthest away is my young one at 5 years old. Time flies. 😫

I know. I can't believe the setter in my profile pic is 9 now. She still acts like a pup at least. Our Pyrenees is 7. My wife is lobbying hard for a new Pyrenees pup. 

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yep the one on the deck and the one closest to the deck are about 13 years old now, the one furthest away is my young one at 5 years old. Time flies. 😫

They look good for 13! 

My brother in laws Lab just had her first birthday in August, and he brought her home just over a year ago now. 

Here she (left) is with her brother just the other night.

IMG_2322.JPEG

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I think a pretty good bet there will be widespread frost Sunday/Monday morning. Probably not a freeze for PDX and SEA though. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

8 AM Sunday - Past 3 runs. Surface temps. Nothing bitter, but trending colder.

trend-gfs_flx-2020102012-f123.sfct.us_nw.gif

If that were to verify I think people should be happy with that. I suspect Monday will be the coldest morning, even though the airmass overhead warms a bit by then. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If that were to verify I think people should be happy with that. I suspect Monday will be the coldest morning, even though the airmass overhead warms a bit by then. 

Especially up my way. I’m expecting outflow winds. May not drop below freezing at the surface here until they die down and an inversion layer can form.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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3 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

Well if the GFS surface map has us at 33 that puts us in reality at...what, like 44?

Right? It simply assumes the Cascades aren't there.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 23 (Most recent: Dec 5, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Good trend for you guys down south but these backdoor events are definitely sub-optimum for us north sounders.  It seems like most of our continental cold air events the past couple years have been of the backdoor variety.  Don't get me wrong, they are still welcomed but our top tier events always arrive from the north.

note:  We did have a north to south event last January but it petered out north of Everett so missed most Puget Sounders

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6 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

Well if the GFS surface map has us at 33 that puts us in reality at...what, like 44?

With what the models are showing right now, they would probably get pretty close to freezing. Still a ways to go though.

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26 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Right? It simply assumes the Cascades aren't there.

No it doesn’t. Note how much colder the surface temps look East of the Cascades.

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6 minutes ago, Acer said:

Good trend for you guys down south but these backdoor events are definitely sub-optimum for us north sounders.  It seems like most of our continental cold air events the past couple years have been of the backdoor variety.  Don't get me wrong, they are still welcomed but our top tier events always arrive from the north.

note:  We did have a north to south event last January but it petered out north of Everett so missed most Puget Sounders

It's October 20th.

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12 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

They look good for 13! 

My brother in laws Lab just had her first birthday in August, and he brought her home just over a year ago now. 

Here she (left) is with her brother just the other night.

IMG_2322.JPEG

Happy faces! Love it!! Yeah my 13yr old Border Collie on the deck has only slightly slowed down, she will probably go at full speed until the day she passes. My other 13yr old has really slowed down and is starting to have a hard time with stairs, etc. but all in all their health has been fantastic (knock on wood) 

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Just now, Jesse said:

Probably just about the earliest I’ve seen this place become so thoroughly weeniefied. Has to be a good sign!! ❄️ 

Haha, you must have sandpaper sheets on your bed.  Take it easy bro.

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14 minutes ago, Acer said:

Good trend for you guys down south but these backdoor events are definitely sub-optimum for us north sounders.  It seems like most of our continental cold air events the past couple years have been of the backdoor variety.  Don't get me wrong, they are still welcomed but our top tier events always arrive from the north.

note:  We did have a north to south event last January but it petered out north of Everett so missed most Puget Sounders

Yeah we lucked out! 

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