snow_wizard Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Phil said: Should probably take a nap for the next 2-3 weeks. You’ll need the energy later. You could very well be right. On the other hand I'm not sold on anything beyond day 7 or so yet. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsktkr Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: You could very well be right. On the other hand I'm not sold on anything beyond day 7 or so yet. That's exactly how I feel. I doubt everything, good and bad, that shows up on models beyond 6.5 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 20 minutes ago, puyallupjon said: D**n. It's pretty normal for people on the hill to get a wet snow accumulation and us folks in the swamp see rain. In-laws on 176th near Thun Field will have snow and all we get is cold rain. Big tease. I live by Rogers. I always feel that the farther you go down Meridian towards Graham, the more snow you get Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 00z GFS Day 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 Latest SST Values 18z NOV 22 Niño 3.4: -1.198 Niño 3: -1.184 Niño 4: -0.742 Niño 1+2: -1.321 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 Day 2 Trough digging a tad better? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 Day 2.5 (Past 8 runs) Definite trend to dig the trough a bit more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 Day 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Latest SST Values 18z NOV 22 Niño 3.4: -1.198 Niño 3: -1.184 Niño 4: -0.742 Niño 1+2: -1.321 What does this mean? Is this the water temp difference at the equator or? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said: What does this mean? Is this the water temp difference at the equator or? Yeah, the Sea Surface Temperatures Anomaly along the equatorial Pacific. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: What does this mean? Is this the water temp difference at the equator or? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 Day 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Thanks. I was thinking so! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 Hmmm, the Pivotal GFS hi-res QPF/10:1 snowfall maps aren't working. The lower res maps are though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 8 hours ago, Phil said: First half is a lost cause. Second half gets interesting. Also, if GWO/MJO periodicity is retained, that puts mid/late January on the table. What factors give you hope for the second half of December? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 Day 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 Day 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 Day 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 So far the only 'action' is with that initial trough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 Day 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 That is a monster Aleutian trough with a mega jet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 Day 9'er That trough is off the freaking charts 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 It appears things are trending toward being more blocky early in week two again. Much better IMO. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 I find it interesting how diffuse the low pressure over the NC Pacific is as we get into week two. Really no organized low pressure systems anywhere out there. Might be a shutdown in the works. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals (Low res maps) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 Day 10.5 Just your run of the mill 936mb low 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 10.5 Just your run of the mill 936mb low I should take my 18’ 1986 Bayliner up there and check it out! 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 10.5 Just your run of the mill 936mb low Yea......That's a no from me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 1 minute ago, MossMan said: I should take my 18’ 1986 Bayliner up there and check it out! I would. I mean the question is, why wouldn't you? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 Lol there are +60°F anomalies in W-Canada this run. Imagine if those were -60°F anomalies. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 Yukon actually gets warmer than Florida for a time. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 Noreaster weather Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 Not a terrible GFS run at all. 850s drop to -5 later in the week and then we get into some very decent inversions. Even today was interesting in it's own right. We started off with a strong inversion and then kept the inversion in place with rainfall and the 850s have plunged from around +10 to -2 with basically no wind and no sign whatsoever at the surface we had such a sharp air mass change. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 59 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals (Low res maps) Dry. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 46 minutes ago, Phil said: Yukon actually gets warmer than Florida for a time. No doubt some strange stuff happens on this run. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 Nice and splitty looking! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 7 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Nice and splitty looking! Yay! Should only last 4-8 weeks as usual. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 00z ECMWF Day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 00z GEM ends up like the past 94 runs. At Day 8-10 a massive northern tier-Canadian block develops. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 1 hour ago, snow_wizard said: I find it interesting how diffuse the low pressure over the NC Pacific is as we get into week two. Really no organized low pressure systems anywhere out there. Might be a shutdown in the works. 1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 10.5 Just your run of the mill 936mb low Conflicting reports. 1 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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