December 2020 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

The S trends in the GEFS animation below...stronger Hudson Bay block...

[Clinton]

4 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Euro is very similar to the UK, but stronger.

Man I am glad to see that, now lets see if it juices up a little bit more!

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

Both the GEFS/EPS are showing stronger blocking "over the top" of the developing/strengthening SLP that will track from the TX Panhandle and hook up towards the Lower Lakes region.  They BIG signal is the strengthening Hudson Bay block, seeding cold air into the pattern which is becoming clearer as we get closer.  With that being said, the 00z EPS has grown the snow shield in expansive fashion covering a lot of real estate.

But first, last nights 00z Euro flashed another "weenie run"...

 

00z EPS...snow mean looking pretty good at this stage...if trends persist, it may be our next storm thread....

 

Lets keep that south trend going!

[dubuque473]

[Clinton]

16 minutes ago, Tom said:

The S trends in the GEFS animation below...stronger Hudson Bay block...

I feel like there is another part of this system the models aren't handling well, maybe a trailing piece of energy in the Sunday-Monday time frame.  Any opinions on this?

[james1976]

6z GFS doesn't get going until lower Michigan. Trend or throw it out like Clinton said?

[Clinton]

38 minutes ago, james1976 said:

6z GFS doesn't get going until lower Michigan. Trend or throw it out like Clinton said?

Trash!

[St Paul Storm]

1 hour ago, james1976 said:

6z GFS doesn't get going until lower Michigan. Trend or throw it out like Clinton said?

With no inter-model or intra-model consistency yet, it’s tough to say if the 06z run is a trend setter or pure garbage. Right now it looks like the southern jet is definitely the major driver of this storm, so I wouldn’t count out lower MI at all IMO.  At the same time, these phasers are always handled so poorly by the models. I wouldn’t bet on anything until the energy moves to the shore and is sampled completely.  
 

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

I feel like there is another part of this system the models aren't handling well, maybe a trailing piece of energy in the Sunday-Monday time frame.  Any opinions on this?

Tough to say, it doesn't appear to be this go-around...mostly all the EPS members just have an elongated wave initially with a strengthening SLP tracking along it riding up into Lower Lakes.

[CentralNebWeather]

Local ABC Meteorologist with his first thoughts of this storm.  We'll see.  Moisture of any form is desperately needed.  

 

[Clinton]

6z Euro and EC is now showing a solution with 2 pieces of energy and has the 2nd piece being stronger.  This is the type of solution I favor based on the LRC and how things went in late Oct.  I'm sure more changes are ahead.

First wave

2nd wave

still snow at 144

[Stacsh]

Trending better for W. Michigan, although being 4-5 days out still things to be ironed out.  GRR thinking mostly rain and some wet snow mixing in late for Grand Rapids.   We shall see.  The models are sucking me in when I said I wouldn't until 48 hours!!

[Madtown]

No phasing so everything stays south of me...seems like I have a little hope for a forecast change with a bit more interaction. Glad its only Tues am

[bud2380]

NAM coming into view.  Looks similar to the Euro at 84 hours when it ends.  

 

[Clinton]

5 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

NAM coming into view.  Looks similar to the Euro at 84 hours when it ends.  

 

I really like how thing are trending today.  12z Euro and ICON will be interesting.

[bud2380]

The ICON isn't pretty.  Pretty weak sauce.  But, it's the ICON so take it for what it's worth. 

[bud2380]

ICON

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

ICON

Looks like we need to look at these as 2 seperate storms.  Getting to be a lot of distance between the two.

[Clinton]

ICON way south on Sunday-Monday storm

[bud2380]

With all due respect to the ICON, I trust it about as much as I trust the old DGEX model.  I've seen it be so wildly wrong so many times that I just can't put much faith in it.  

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

With all due respect to the ICON, I trust it about as much as I trust the old DGEX model.  I've seen it be so wildly wrong so many times that I just can't put much faith in it.  

I hope it to far south this time.

[jaster220]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

The S trends in the GEFS animation below...stronger Hudson Bay block...

Classic High over Low gonna get the job done. Just a matter of for who exactly. Hoping we score this one ofc. The 0z Euro weenie run reminds me of 11-26-18 bliz up to Chicago, and a lesser storm here for the Mitt. Come on bud, reel this guy in, it's a keeper

[jaster220]

42 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I really like how thing are trending today.  12z Euro and ICON will be interesting.

06z definitely the south bump here in the Mitt I was hoping for. Just need to keep it from over-shooting the landing, lol.

 

[bud2380]

The GFS continues to differ significantly from the Euro on the finer details.  The general idea is similar, but it is slower to strengthen and a little further south and flatter.  Keeps any appreciable snow east of Iowa. 

 

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Stacsh said:

Trending better for W. Michigan, although being 4-5 days out still things to be ironed out.  GRR thinking mostly rain and some wet snow mixing in late for Grand Rapids.   We shall see.  The models are sucking me in when I said I wouldn't until 48 hours!!

I don't think a single piece of guidance in last night's 0z suite trended more rain/less snow, yet that person doing their AFD wrote that?? Not familiar with the name, but the models certainly did not trend that way. Trend was south and colder. Sometimes it's almost like they are 1 suite behind or something. Idk

[Niko]

Temps slowly rising. Currently at 32F under mostly cloudy skies.

[Clinton]

8 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

06z definitely the south bump here in the Mitt I was hoping for. Just need to keep it from over-shooting the landing, lol.

 

That Sunday-Tuesday system related to late Oct might get far enough north to give you some bonus snow.  Just don't know yet how that will go.  ICON took it way south.

[Niko]

A lot of pieces need to get solved w the weekend storm. Looks interesting, I'll tell ya that.

[Niko]

So much for the warmth that was expected. Now my temps for the weekend (especially Sat) is a lot colder than what it was showing yesterday.

 

[james1976]

Canadian is still more north but trending toward GFS/Euro

[bud2380]

Canadian still looks like a pretty solid hit of snow for Iowa.  

[Stacsh]

4 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Canadian is still more north but trending toward GFS/Euro

went about 100 miles south from last run. very much align now with the GFS/Euro.  Looking good for my area.  

[whatitdo]

28 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I don't think a single piece of guidance in last night's 0z suite trended more rain/less snow, yet that person doing their AFD wrote that?? Not familiar with the name, but the models certainly did not trend that way. Trend was south and colder. Sometimes it's almost like they are 1 suite behind or something. Idk

2 hours ago, Stacsh said:

Trending better for W. Michigan, although being 4-5 days out still things to be ironed out.  GRR thinking mostly rain and some wet snow mixing in late for Grand Rapids.   We shall see.  The models are sucking me in when I said I wouldn't until 48 hours!!

- Potential Storm over this weekend with rain/snow mix

The warmer temperatures through the latter half of the week will
give way to a system that the latest model runs continually to
trend cooler. Latest EC/GEFS continues to trend each successive
run colder. However the main precipitation type for Saturday into
Sunday remains rain but wet snow is possible at times. There are
still some confidence issues with timing but currently it should
be moving through midday Saturday through daytime Sunday. Looking
at the anomalies, the best moisture will be over the region 18Z
Saturday to 00Z Sunday, though there is some variance. So will
have to keep an eye for adjustments as this system gets closer.

Seems pretty reasonable especially this far out tbh

[bud2380]

[bud2380]

Closer view of the Canadian.  Man I hope this is right.  It would be a best case scenario for my backyard.

 

[GDR]

I’d rather be in the kings corner right now

[bud2380]

UKIE map at hour 96.  Precip maps will load a little later. 

 

[bud2380]

Canadian with another storm mid next week.

 

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Canadian with another storm mid next week.

 

That's the 00z run...but it does fit the pattern of another storm system a few days later...should be busy around these parts.

[bud2380]

1 minute ago, Tom said:

That's the 00z run...but it does fit the pattern of another storm system a few days later...should be busy around these parts.

Whoops, grabbed the wrong one.  THe storm is still there on 12z, but not as strong.