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December 11-13th MW/GL Snowstorm


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Unfortunately we’ve had 3 fatalities in front of my house🤣🤣

Solid 1" here with a fairly heavy, wet snow falling at 30 degrees and enough of a north wind to blow it around a little.  Streets are awfully slick.  My grids say 1-3" today and 1" tonight with no WWA

Awesomeness!!!

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DVN says it's just too warm for snow.

 

1.Probabilities of a storm system impacting our entire area have
increased for Friday through Saturday night.

2. There is not expected to be cold air in place sufficient for this
potential system to be all snow, and forecasting any amounts will be
very challenging with this system.


Quiet weather Wednesday night and Thursday will begin with quiet
weather as zonal flow temporarily is found over the Midwest. That
flow will bring a second day of lower to mid 50 degree temperatures,
before a cold front arrives Thursday night.

That front will stall to our southeast Friday, and all guidance
brings a significant upper trof out of the four corners area, to the
northeast into the Midwest. This is a rather high probability for us
to see impacts from the storm which would be triggered by this upper
wave`s ejection into the Midwest. An moisture rich warm sector is
forecast ahead of that wave, the upcoming storm should have ample
moisture to produce rain and snow.   While there are models showing
a significant snow event with that storm in our area, there are some
things that bring doubt to that scenario. First and foremost, there
does not appear to be very cold or Arctic air in place ahead of the
system, arriving with the cold front Thursday night.  That air is
quite marginal, and therefore, the warm moist advection Friday
afternoon will likely fall as rain over the area, before dynamic
cooling potentially changes things over Friday night into Saturday.
Even on Saturday, it appears significant cold air will not be
wrapping into the low circulation until Saturday evening, at which
time, the main moisture plume is forecast to be shifting east of the
area. Some light snow may linger through Saturday night into Sunday
as the main upper trof sweeps overhead, but that would be of low
travel impact.
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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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Not sure I'm really buying DVNs explanation on temps.  Temps are plenty cold enough for snow at the 850 and 925mb level.  They hover around freezing at the surface, but if snowfall rates are high enough, it won't be a problem to accumulate.  

Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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DMX siding with the Euro:

Still a lot of uncertainty moving forward with regard to the weekend
system.  Though precipitation types look fair straightforward, the
trend in the deterministic and to a lesser extend, ensemble guidance
is taking the track of the storm farther south as the southern
stream and northern stream are now trending toward less phasing near
our area.  Of the two deterministic models today, the GFS is more
progressive and less amplified while the 12z Euro does deepen and
slow down the southern stream wave long enough to develop a
deformation zone back into eastern/southeast Iowa Saturday afternoon
and evening. Given the time frame is still between 90 and 114 hours
for the main system, there is likely to be some modification yet to
the forecast due to the lack of agreement. The preferred solution is
the Euro with it`s slightly slower progression but much depends on
the amount of cold air advection expected to drop into the system
later on Friday. This will continue to lessen confidence until some
of those details are ironed out.  For now, our messaging will shift
the threat of heavier precipitation and potential snowfall into our
east/southeast and continue to revisit new data/model runs with time
for a more detailed forecast regarding snowfall amounts and timing.
Warm air advection and moisture return is expected late Thursday
night into Friday morning when the first batch of rain/snow moves
into the south/southeast. After highs in the 40s/50s Thursday,
cooler afternoon readings return Friday in the lower 30s northwest
to the mid 40s southeast. Rain/rain snow is expected during Friday.
As the main system tracks north northeast Saturday into Saturday
evening across Central Missouri into Central Illinois, colder air
should continue mainly snow in the region through the end of the
event.  Winds increasing on the back side of the storm may cause
some limited blowing snow, though afternoon highs near the freezing
mark will mitigate much impact. The remainder of the forecast from
Sunday through Tuesday will be generally dry with only a weak system
tracking just south of the state.
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18z ICON nudged north with a bit more of an actual system, but I wouldn't bet 2 cents on that model. NAM is so far south at the end of the run that Clinton is even riding the northern edge. EPS is the main thing giving me hope, it would be a pretty embarassing flop for a 6-7" day 4 mean to not even be close. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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8 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

18z ICON nudged north with a bit more of an actual system, but I wouldn't bet 2 cents on that model. NAM is so far south at the end of the run that Clinton is even riding the northern edge. EPS is the main thing giving me hope, it would be a pretty embarassing flop for a 6-7" day 4 mean to not even be close. 

Yeah, the EPS mean is also what I'm hoping turns out to be more correct.  The UKIE is also great for your area. 

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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3 hours ago, Stacsh said:

GRR downplaying any impacts from this storm for the time being from their AFD.   WayYYYY too much spread from the models.  

Not surprising really. When was the last time a storm 4 or 5 days out was a slam dunk? As usual, the key players are still over the PAC ocean. Not to mention it's technically Met winter, but we will be going into this from yet another warm spell. Whatever happened to getting a cold spell, followed by a storm? Like that doesn't happen anymore. Still, it's early enough to not throw the towel, certainly up there if not down here. Their write-up was actually decent I thought, but there's always ENS members N or S of the mean at this range - duh. Going to be a long week watching this bounce around 5 different ways from Sunday

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

12z JMA...looks juiced and a southerly track...

jma_T850_us_5.png

 

 

jma_T850_us_6.png

jma_apcpn_us_6.png

 I like it's robust look, just not tracking on top my head again.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Good lord. Starts snowing at Hr 66 in Lincoln and still snowing at the end of the run with 8.9". 18z NAM literally had literally nothing within a 200 mile radius. NAM is infamous for outrageous totals, but nice to see the change. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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10 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

NAM

 

ref1km_ptype.us_mw.png

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

My area does well. Interesting. NWS Disco hinting at some potential, but much uncertainty. 

NWS Hastings:
Think the brunt of impacts would come Fri eve into Sat AM, IF the EC verifies, in which at least lgt accums would be possible, along with moderate N/NE wind gusts 25-30mph. Think the raw snow output from EC is overdone given long duration of mainly lgt to mod rates, though there`s certainly some hint of banding potential. Appears that areas along and esp S of I-80 have greatest accum potential attm. Think the best course of action for messaging is to maintain wording in HWO from last night`s shift and begin to increase awareness in upcoming social media posts, but mention the high uncertainty.

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39 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

NAM

 

ref1km_ptype.us_mw.png

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

Nothing like riding the 1" or 2" line on the southern edge of a snow swath for what seems like forever (actually, I just checked and the last time it wasn't like this was Feb of 2018, so yeah almost 3 freaking yrs aside from last November's oddity on Vet's Day)

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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NAM's also picking up on the urban heat island known as Chicagoland. Not a good look for Tom's place. Unfortunately, with lake temps still quite warm and the air mass only marginal it may be an accurate portrayal.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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The Kuchera output for the Canadian ~20% lower than 10:1, which makes sense given the marginal temps.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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It was guaranteed that the UK would be weaker than its 12z run.  The new run is much closer to other models.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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other than totals which obviously will be off - UKIE and CMC are quite similar in placement of snows...

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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00z Euro still showing promise for a good chance of seeing a plowable snowfall here.  I'm just worried thermals will be an issue the closer you are to the lake.  Not a lot of cold air around with this set up.  Crazy moisture being spit out this run...can you imagine if we had temps in the upper 20's???  Can't ask for a better set up if ONLY temps were colder.  You take what you can get as this thing is not set in stone.

 

1.png

2.png

 

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