Tom Posted October 31, 2014 Author Report Share Posted October 31, 2014 Am I missing something here? I see the 540 line is still north of the Canadian border on these maps. How cold is the airmass then?Remember, these are ensembles...I wouldn't pay attention to the 540 line right now. Just look at the troughs position and the ridge's where they are present...cold signals. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 31, 2014 Report Share Posted October 31, 2014 12z GFS with big cold shot next weekend. Getting colder and colder! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted October 31, 2014 Report Share Posted October 31, 2014 Latest gfs is pretty boring. Brief shot of cooler air late next week then temps rebound. Not much precip beyond Monday/Tuesday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 31, 2014 Report Share Posted October 31, 2014 Am I missing something here? I see the 540 line is still north of the Canadian border on these maps. How cold is the airmass then? Remember, these are ensembles...I wouldn't pay attention to the 540 line right now. Just look at the troughs position and the ridge's where they are present...cold signals. That's 540mb at 500hPa though. Totally different than the freezing line correlated with 850 mb/5000ft. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted October 31, 2014 Report Share Posted October 31, 2014 That's 540mb at 500hPa though. Totally different than the freezing line correlated with 850 mb/5000ft. Right, the 540 line is always correlated with 500hPa, and is usually a good marker of the surface freezing line. I know it isn't exact, but my concern was the fact that it showed the line way up in Canada. It would be hard to say there's is going to be extreme cold even by November standards if the 540 line is still north of the international border. But according to Tom, there shouldn't be any concern with the temps on these maps Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted November 1, 2014 Report Share Posted November 1, 2014 May not be the popular opinion here, but I'll go for a warm mid-November. Just take a glance at the same aforementioned ensembles over East Asia in coming days/weeks, as well as what the Bering Sea's been doing in the last few days. Warm signals, it appears. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 1, 2014 Right, the 540 line is always correlated with 500hPa, and is usually a good marker of the surface freezing line. I know it isn't exact, but my concern was the fact that it showed the line way up in Canada. It would be hard to say there's is going to be extreme cold even by November standards if the 540 line is still north of the international border. But according to Tom, there shouldn't be any concern with the temps on these mapsDon't pay attention to the temps on these ensemble maps I post from the GFS. However, when you see the Euro ensemble maps you can see the 850's getting colder and deeper, meaning, there is more consistency amongst the 52 members. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 1, 2014 00z Euro bringing a weak Clipper system through N MN/N WI and laying down some light snow next Wednesday. Trending colder for the Lakes late next week. Cold keeps pushing, not surprising given the magnitude of arctic air building in Canada next week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 1, 2014 Many early season snow records are begin broken in the southern states today. This early season arctic attack is doing wonders in South Carolina/West Virginia/TN. More than likely a sign of things to come down there and overall for this winter season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 1, 2014 12z GFS showing high temps in the lakes sub freezing next Sunday...someone in the Plains/Midwest/Lakes is going to get their first sticking snows of the season in the next 1-2 weeks. Some real arctic chill is in the works. GFS also showing more blocking that'll get things going early this season. Teleconnections support this idea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 1, 2014 Report Share Posted November 1, 2014 12z GFS looking cold and active. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 1, 2014 Report Share Posted November 1, 2014 Some fun stuff going on in the Smokies. Winter Storm WarningsACCUMULATIONS...ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHESARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT UP TO 4 INCHES MORE AT THE HIGHERELEVATIONS RIGHT ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER. THIS WILL BRINGSTORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS TO 6 TO 12 INCHES IN MANY AREAS...WITH12 TO 16 INCH TOTALS AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SMOKIES. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 1, 2014 12z GGEM unloading the early season arctic express next Sun-Tues and some Clipper snows in the Plains/Midwest...winter is around the corner. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 1, 2014 Report Share Posted November 1, 2014 Waterloo airport had 15 for a low this morning. I'll try to find out what the record was.From local met: Waterloo record for Nov 1 is 13 degree in 2006. The official morning low Sat was 15. Close but no record. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 1, 2014 Report Share Posted November 1, 2014 Saw my first flakes yesterday on Halloween evening. What a beautiful scene. It did not stick on the ground, but it was fun watching it fall from the sky for the first time this season. Could this be a sign of a harsh winter on the way???!!!!! 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 1, 2014 12z Euro ensembles continue to show a wild November through mid month and beyond. The model run after run develops the infamous NW NAMER ridge we saw all to often last year. This should unload the coldest air of the season and certainly looks like it could produce record cold and possibly some decent snows anywhere in the Plains/Midwest/Lakes. I think this pattern locks and loads Week 2 from all indications. I'd love to see a snow cover by Thanksgiving, wouldn't you??? Edit: 12z Euro and GFS creeping that snow cover farther south as we head into Week #2. This is an amazing pattern that is project to set up within the next 7 days or so. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 1, 2014 Saw my first flakes yesterday on Halloween evening. What a beautiful scene. It did not stick on the ground, but it was fun watching it fall from the sky for the first time this season. Could this be a sign of a harsh winter on the way???!!!!!From what I'm seeing, it certainly does and I wouldn't be surprised if there is a decent snow cover in our region be end of November. That's if we don't see a storm that swings west of the Lakes and pumps the ridge out ahead of it. However, the CFSv2 is showing a persistent -AO/-NAO throughout the entire month so it should help us from that happening. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted November 1, 2014 Report Share Posted November 1, 2014 with a nice bullseye of less than .25" of precip the next 16 days right over Nebraska. Let it begin.... 12z GFS looking cold and active. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 1, 2014 Report Share Posted November 1, 2014 Some fun stuff going on in the Smokies. Winter Storm WarningsACCUMULATIONS...ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHESARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT UP TO 4 INCHES MORE AT THE HIGHERELEVATIONS RIGHT ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER. THIS WILL BRINGSTORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS TO 6 TO 12 INCHES IN MANY AREAS...WITH12 TO 16 INCH TOTALS AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SMOKIES. That's really impressive for the Smokies in the winter, let alone now!Winter of 2009-2010 was rough there. I hiked in snow over a foot deep above 3500 feet. Edit" Impressive totals! WOW Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 1, 2014 Report Share Posted November 1, 2014 I call it the Nebraska Dome. Seems like more than ever before cold and snow is shunted northeast, southeast, etc. The pattern looks horrible for us again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 1, 2014 Report Share Posted November 1, 2014 From what I'm seeing, it certainly does and I wouldn't be surprised if there is a decent snow cover in our region be end of November. That's if we don't see a storm that swings west of the Lakes and pumps the ridge out ahead of it. However, the CFSv2 is showing a persistent -AO/-NAO throughout the entire month so it should help us from that happening. I see the snow cover continuing above normal as well. Asian snow cover as of today. Just watched the Saturday summary from Joe Bastardi and he definitely pointed out how bad the models have been in trying to predict temperature patterns. Especially in the eastern half of the continent. Blow torch across the entire country for this month, lol - I don't think so! I think the writing is already on the wall about where we're heading for this winter!...I have to get my subscription back! haha --- High today of only 41°. Looks to be heading for the 20s tonight. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 2, 2014 Report Share Posted November 2, 2014 First hard freeze achieved. Down to 27° and over half the night still to go. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted November 2, 2014 Report Share Posted November 2, 2014 don't foreget to set clocks back an hour tonight because daylight savings time ends. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 2, 2014 Report Share Posted November 2, 2014 don't foreget to set clocks back an hour tonight because daylight savings time ends.Thanks tim...almost forgot. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted November 2, 2014 Report Share Posted November 2, 2014 Thanks tim...almost forgot.you're welcome nikos Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 2, 2014 Report Share Posted November 2, 2014 Models will come out an hour earlier. I like that. Especially the 00z runs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 2, 2014 Report Share Posted November 2, 2014 That is an actice 00z GFS run. Clipper train! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted November 2, 2014 Report Share Posted November 2, 2014 Dissapointment looking more and more likely for our area it's looking like, hence my lack of interest in this forum and weather in general lately. The only "trend" I'm noticing, is that Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley are receiving the bulk of the cold and precip, while we get the crazy temperature swings and fizzled precip. Was incredibly cold and windy here last night. All to similar to how last year began. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 2, 2014 Report Share Posted November 2, 2014 Still young in the year, way too early for anyone to give up hope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 2, 2014 Report Share Posted November 2, 2014 Cold really building at the end of the 0z euro. Even before that mid-range seems pretty cold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 2, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 2, 2014 Indeed, showing a decent Clipper digging farther south next week Thursday that may drop some snows in S Wisco. Next weekend looks very chilly, high temps in the upper 30's mainly before the real chill hits the following week. Winter is around the corner for sure. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 2, 2014 Report Share Posted November 2, 2014 Big change on the gfs in the last 24-36 hours. The 6z gfs shows an active pattern and a major snowstorm next Thursday night into Friday for parts of Michigan. Could be a fun weather watching week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted November 2, 2014 Report Share Posted November 2, 2014 Indeed, showing a decent Clipper digging farther south next week Thursday that may drop some snows in S Wisco. Next weekend looks very chilly, high temps in the upper 30's mainly before the real chill hits the following week. Winter is around the corner for sure. Man that would be such a close miss. I like the pattern in the next ten days as it appears on the Euro and the GFS Ensembles, so let's hope it keeps trending that way, a lot of disturbances with at least the potential of mixing with or changing over to snow for a time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 2, 2014 Report Share Posted November 2, 2014 Obviously way out in lala land but look at this sucker. Actually starts in the plains and strengthens as it heads east-northeast. GFS really starting to grab onto a cold-active pattern.http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/gfs_namer_336_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 2, 2014 Report Share Posted November 2, 2014 NAM is showing that system for Thursday as well, or it might be a day earlier but still. Snowing in Minnesota at the end of the run with a wide swath of precip heading into Wisconsin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 2, 2014 Report Share Posted November 2, 2014 12z GFS is much stronger than 6z, but it cuts the system through MKE (1008) and keeps most of the area a tad warm. Night and day difference between 6z and 12z though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 2, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 2, 2014 Astounding cold showing up on the Euro for Week 1-2 and beyond. For an ensemble run to show these kind of deviations from normal this far out is incredible. My concern, as always, was the SSW event to kick start this winter into overdrive this month. The response in the atmosphere will be the development of arctic blocking which is now becoming very evident within the next few days. 500mb heights will begin to rise in the arctic regions and the AO will begin to tank as I have expected it to. Remember the CPC showing a sky rocketing AO just about a week ago??? Well, it is no longer the case. It's fascinating for me to see all this come together and to see the key ingredients weeks or days before in the modeling prove to be accurate down the road. Exciting times ahead and it will be awesome to see some sticking snows finally! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 2, 2014 Report Share Posted November 2, 2014 Actually, it gets it down to 1002 in lower Michigan and most of the area turns over to snow with very strong winds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 2, 2014 Report Share Posted November 2, 2014 D**n, just check out the difference between 0z and 12z for the Wed/Thu system. Big trend towards the euro on a stronger/compact system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 2, 2014 Report Share Posted November 2, 2014 WOW! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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