Money Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 GGEM: http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/478_100.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 7, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 12z GFS has 2 pieces of energy again this run, splits the first out into N MO and 2nd down into the Pan Handle. Would like to see this energy go out into the Plains in one piece. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 7, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 Money, does the 12z GGEM look like the SLP went a bit south this run just NW of Kansas city?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/233_100.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/234_100.gif Splits the energy into two pieces like the GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 Nice write up by the Chicago NWS office.http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lot&storyid=105107&source=0 1 Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 HR 84: 12z NAM: 1001.7 NW of STL12z GFS: 1004.0 NW of STL12z GGEM: 1000.0 S. OK/N. TX Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 UKMET http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 UK met has the ULL too far west imo. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 7, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 If the 12z Euro has the SLP keep most of its energy digging south into the southern Plains and not shearing off a piece to fast to the east, this storm may become neg tilt over the next day or so. Something to watch with the HP off the east coast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 7, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 00z Euro ensembles.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 That's all the ensembles averaged out right ? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 00z Euro ensembles....Nice. Thought maybe the 6" area might extend back to the west and cover more territory than it does. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 7, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 That's all the ensembles averaged out right ?Ya, the Control spit out one of the lessor amounts I've seen compared to previous runs as well. Ensembles showing a more broader coverage possibly suggesting a healthier system. Also, many more members showing the snow covering S IA/N IL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 Wow, that GFS run sucked. Not surprised. Still a few days off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 Parallel gfs is a great hit for Wisco Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 Maps? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 On my phone but it gives most of S WI .75-1 qpf all snow 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 Euro looks pretty good at 96 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 Euro slams the twin cities Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 What about in central Wisconsin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 Only about .2" qpf for Madison. What other cities? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 I only have text output right now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 Osh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 7, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 On my phone but it gives most of S WI .75-1 qpf all snowThat's not right....a piece of energy creates some overriding snows way up north near Hayward/MSP, then it seems the 2 pieces of energy down near OK/MO merge and unite spinning up a lower lakes cutter. A MUCH different run and something I was thinking would happen as this run tries to spin up a healthier system near C IL up into lower MI. Model mayhem will continue.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 I was talking about the parallel gfs not the euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 7, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 The thoughts of that energy diving down into the Pan Handle always caught my eye and where I see the 12z Euro going is something to monitor over the next couple days. We could be seeing a Pan Handle hook in the making and this could become something nice. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 OSHECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: OSH LAT= 43.98 LON= -88.55 ELE= 807 12Z NOV07 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK FRI 12Z 07-NOV 2.1 -7.5 1022 69 2 0.00 557 540 FRI 18Z 07-NOV 4.8 -5.7 1018 54 77 0.00 558 544 SAT 00Z 08-NOV 5.0 1.3 1012 58 85 0.00 556 546 SAT 06Z 08-NOV 4.2 0.7 1007 79 99 0.03 550 545 SAT 12Z 08-NOV 5.3 -4.3 1007 80 67 0.02 545 540 SAT 18Z 08-NOV 4.0 -7.8 1012 56 5 0.00 544 534 SUN 00Z 09-NOV 3.3 -7.7 1013 52 55 0.00 542 531 SUN 06Z 09-NOV 1.8 -7.3 1013 60 72 0.00 541 530 SUN 12Z 09-NOV 2.5 -5.1 1010 67 99 0.00 540 532 SUN 18Z 09-NOV 2.5 -3.8 1009 85 97 0.05 542 535 MON 00Z 10-NOV 4.0 -4.0 1008 80 74 0.01 545 538 MON 06Z 10-NOV 2.9 -2.6 1009 81 85 0.01 546 539 MON 12Z 10-NOV 1.5 -2.7 1011 90 98 0.02 550 541 MON 18Z 10-NOV 1.8 -1.4 1009 94 76 0.10 552 544 TUE 00Z 11-NOV 1.6 -3.1 1010 90 64 0.06 553 545 TUE 06Z 11-NOV -0.6 -4.3 1013 87 65 0.09 553 543 TUE 12Z 11-NOV -2.0 -6.1 1018 80 79 0.03 552 538 TUE 18Z 11-NOV -3.1 -8.9 1021 83 99 0.07 549 533 WED 00Z 12-NOV -3.5 -12.3 1024 77 97 0.11 545 526 WED 06Z 12-NOV -6.5 -13.6 1026 81 100 0.01 540 520 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 Iowa City - could sneak out an inch or so. That secondary band being developed on the Euro is intriguing. TUE 12Z 11-NOV 0.1 0.8 1014 71 76 0.02 555 544 TUE 18Z 11-NOV -1.8 -5.3 1020 70 97 0.08 551 536 WED 00Z 12-NOV -1.7 -9.6 1025 60 66 0.04 549 530 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 7, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 Iowa City - could sneak out an inch or so. That secondary band being developed on the Euro is intriguing. TUE 12Z 11-NOV 0.1 0.8 1014 71 76 0.02 555 544 TUE 18Z 11-NOV -1.8 -5.3 1020 70 97 0.08 551 536 WED 00Z 12-NOV -1.7 -9.6 1025 60 66 0.04 549 530How quickly things can change, right??? I never lost hope about that energy deep down south. We are still 4 days away from that second piece of energy developing and alot of time to see the models figure out what happens to that energy. I like the way this is going. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 Yep, I've seen storms do that before so I wouldn't be surprised if something develops. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 The thoughts of that energy diving down into the Pan Handle always caught my eye and where I see the 12z Euro going is something to monitor over the next couple days. We could be seeing a Pan Handle hook in the making and this could become something nice. That would be a way to get this event to be a "share the wealth" type. It would funny if there would be two waves and the second one ends up being stronger or about the same! The ULL and strength of the Arctic high is playing havoc with the models right now. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 7, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 That would be a way to get this event to be a "share the wealth" type. It would funny if there would be two waves and the second one ends up being stronger or about the same! The ULL and strength of the Arctic high is playing havoc with the models right now.Not only that, but the models have an extremely difficult time trying to figure out what to do with the energy when it crosses the Rockies. Along with that fiasco, you have an extremely powerful arctic front sliding down the east side of the Rockies. Put 2 and 2 together, model mayhem is the result. That's why I said earlier that the 00z Sunday runs will be monitored closely as the energy will begin to enter the balloon network and get better data. Having said that, the development on the 12z Euro run is fascinating not just bc it is showing a stark difference from previous runs but its something the CFS/CFSv2 have been showing 3 weeks ago on the potential for many pan handle hook type systems to open November. Here we are with the model (albeit just 1 run) starting to show it. Secondly, the Euro ensembles keep expanding the snow chances farther south each run which leads you to believe folks south of the I-80 are not out of the woods just yet. Lets see where the 18z GFS run takes us. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 Well that last run looks like last year snow north and south east and I shoot the middle. Same pattern same results. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 18z NAM is way NW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 1002.6 L over the WI/IL border towards Kenosha. S. MN gets 12+ and then 6-10 into Central and northern WI Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 Game over fun while it lasted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 Game over fun while it lasted.Game over??? Bro, first off, a ways out yet, and your within the zone where it can shift. Second, it's November 7th!! Atleast you're likely to see accumulation. We could get dusted out here, and look to be right in the middle of the polar vortex. Long range models look baller, you'll get nailed in mad town before you know it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 Typical amped up NAM run. We're going to see a lot of wobbles in the next 36 hours for sure. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 Not good runs for me today but thats ok. Few days away yet and its early November. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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