December 2014 Observations and Discussion

[WildWisconsinWeather]

I'm surprised the Chicago folks have not mentioned the quick burst of heavy snow for tomorrow am. I know nothing huge but as bleek as it gas been i figured something would have been mentionef.

 

It probably will be rain, maybe a quick period of sleet or snow for the northern burbs, but even here in Milwaukee most of it will be a mix or rain unfortunately.

[Tony]

you never know these little systems can be sneaky and pack a punch.

[FV-Mike]

A special weather statement was issued for S Wi and N IL for the possibility of brief heavy snow a sleet. Should be an interesting morning commute. With how boring it has been something to watch

[Niko]

My temps have trended colder in the extended. The mid 40s are long gone. The best I do is 42 and then im back in the 30s for highs, which is slightly above average. This weather is fine by me. I'd rather have quiet weather now and have the storminess and frigid weather arrive right before Christmas and lock in for the rest of the winter.

[bud2380]

There are definitely some indications on some models about a snowstorm brewing in the plains in the 7-9 day time period. It will be something to keep an eye on.

[Geos]

Regarding tomorrow morning - Dewpoints are low enough as well as the temperatures, so it does sound like driving could be slower than normal in the morning. Not a bit deal, but it's something in this boring pattern.

[bud2380]

Here is the jma at hour 192

[tim the weatherman]

i have been reading stuff about me and i am saying that i shouldn't be saying at those things and i was showing that at 300 hours and and i will not show those that ever again and i was wishcrafting and the snowman is right and i don't know what i am talking about and was reading about you calling me a troll too and talking about a repeat of the 2011 groundhog blizzard is not happening.

[LegitWebos7]

thank :C

[The Snowman]

i have been reading stuff about me and i am saying that i shouldn't be saying at those things and i was showing that at 300 hours and and i will not show those that ever again and i was wishcrafting and the snowman is right and i don't know what i am talking about and was reading about you calling me a troll too and talking about a repeat of the 2011 groundhog blizzard is not happening.

It's not so much about posting things at 300 hours out as it is knowing to what degree a storm may strengthen. While it's unwise to say the storm will be similar to the GHD blizzard, it wouldn't be a stretch to say this has potential to be a rather hefty storm system.

No need to completely halt the image posting, my advice is to just keep your discussions within reason. 

[tim the weatherman]

It's not so much about posting things at 300 hours out as it is knowing to what degree a storm may strengthen. While it's unwise to say the storm will be similar to the GHD blizzard, it wouldn't be a stretch to say this has potential to be a rather hefty storm system.

No need to completely halt the image posting, my advice is to just keep your discussions within reason. 

i agree that i will keep it reasonable and will not look at anything out to 300 hours too and was looking at that and this will be a rainmaker with not a lot of cold air coming down into the storm.

[james1976]

Here is the jma at hour 192

Whats temp profiles on this?

[LegitWebos7]

so no groindhug day reppet?

[LegitWebos7]

darn it

[bud2380]

Here are 850s. Some cold air to work with

 

[Geos]

I don't mind if anyone discusses anything in the medium or long range (and adding a few maps here and there), but as we all know storms that show in those time frames usually don't work out as they originally appear on the maps. That's why I don't post maps of them. I'm more for looking at whether it will be cold enough, then after a system gets within 168 hours or so, then I might post a map of it. But seeing a stormy pattern on the models in the 7-14 day range can be a good thing and that is worth mentioning to everyone. When I look at the long range specifically, usually I stick to 850 mb, 500 mb maps, MJO charts - things like that.

[LegitWebos7]

i made some new thread for the potentials ground day reppet storms

[LegitWebos7]

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/717-just-an-questions/

[bud2380]

i agree that i will keep it reasonable and will not look at anything out to 300 hours too and was looking at that and this will be a rainmaker with not a lot of cold air coming down into the storm.

You see Tim, this is kind of a perfect example of your problem. The last sentence was entirely opinion, but presented as fact. Nobody can deny your enthusiasm, you just struggle to express it properly. If you have an opinion try to back it up with facts as to why you have formed your opinion. Just my two cents.

[FV-Mike]

Here are 850s. Some cold air to work with

 

image.jpg

Thanks for posting hopefully something to track

[tim the weatherman]

i was thinking that the warm air is winning to keep the cold air in canada and with the storm is coming up is rain with snow on the backside with the cold air coming in.

[james1976]

System still showing up for early next week on GFS. Looks like some snow for Iowa on this run anyway. Hopefully we can get enough cold air with this thing.

[Geos]

Here is 850 mb temperatures and winds early next week. There is a big absence of deep cold on this side of the globe, except in the Canadian Archipelago and Greenland.  If you look closely you can see the winds blowing away from North America in the Arctic. We want it to go the other direction like it was in November.

 

[Tom]

Here is 850 mb temperatures and winds early next week. There is a big absence of deep cold on this side of the globe, except in the Canadian Archipelago and Greenland.  If you look closely you can see the winds blowing away from North America in the Arctic. We want it to go the other direction like it was in November.

 

gfs_z850_uv_t_noram_63.png

Been paying attention to this over the past few days and it certainly seems like the true arctic air will be positioned near Eurasia and over the Pole during the next 1-2 weeks.  Doesn't mean you can't squeeze out a snow system or two but the true arctic air wont be around for a little while.  I think towards Christmas week is when we start to see more blocking in the arctic that'll funnel true arctic air down into the lower 48.

[tim the weatherman]

Been paying attention to this over the past few days and it certainly seems like the true arctic air will be positioned near Eurasia and over the Pole during the next 1-2 weeks.  Doesn't mean you can't squeeze out a snow system or two but the true arctic air wont be around for a little while.  I think towards Christmas week is when we start to see more blocking in the arctic that'll funnel true arctic air down into the lower 48.

looks of things that we will not have colder weather for the next week or two and it could be right around the 22nd or 23rd of this month the where we expect arctic like you and geos has pointed out i am suspected the ao will go negative around that time.

[bud2380]

Euro and eps control continue to show accumulating snow in the plains just beyond 7 days.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

So much for the snow/sleet chances with this disturbance, just the coldest rain you can conjure up.

[Maxim]

32° and raining....

[Snowshoe]

About 1" of sleet last night. It was like walking on little ball bearings this morning.

[GDR]

When should we start seeing the storm train?

[gosaints]

End of the week looks nice around here

[NEJeremy]

Just saw a stat that the U.S. is at it's lowest snowfall cover on DEC 8th in 25 years! Only 17.9% is covered vs the average of 37.3%. Last year it was at 58.5%.

It's been a cold start but definitely not the active pattern so many had thought would happen. Hope this changes!

[GDR]

Patience, North America will see some more snow before Christmas. I bet a lot of us will have a cold and white Christmas!!

[gosaints]

Just saw a stat that the U.S. is at it's lowest snowfall cover on DEC 8th in 25 years! Only 17.9% is covered vs the average of 37.3%. Last year it was at 58.5%.

It's been a cold start but definitely not the active pattern so many had thought would happen. Hope this changes!

Ya the quick start had alot of small snow depths across the continent.  Now nothing impressive

[NEJeremy]

wow that storm for around the 15th has almost disappeared on the 12Z GFS. shows it staying way south and much weaker/less precip

[Geos]

So much for the snow/sleet chances with this disturbance, just the coldest rain you can conjure up.

 

Ditto that here as well. Had about 15 minutes of snow. It was even 32° and raining right before it turned over.

[Maxim]

I bet December could end up warmer than November in a few areas around the great lakes/midwest region

[Geos]

Just saw a stat that the U.S. is at it's lowest snowfall cover on DEC 8th in 25 years! Only 17.9% is covered vs the average of 37.3%. Last year it was at 58.5%.

It's been a cold start but definitely not the active pattern so many had thought would happen. Hope this changes!

 

At one point last month the coverage was about 40% for the U.S. Not very often you see a snow cover pull back like we've had.

[Tom]

12z GGEM showing tons of precip with the 15th/16th system.  Looks like a classic west/east slow bowling ball/cut-off storm system.  Waiting for precip maps to load.  

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014120812/gfs_asnow_us_33.png