December 2014 Observations and Discussion

[GDR]

[gabel23]

All time december record minimum set in Hastings this morning. If you use the record years as analogs, 1 out of the 3 years went on to produce above average snow for the season. 1939 went on to produce 40" of snow for Lincoln. 

 

HASTINGS TIES ALL TIME RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE

MONTH OF DECEMBER WHILE SHATTERING 93 YEAR OLD DAILY RECORD WARM
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR DECEMBER 13TH...

THE LOW TEMPERATURE FOR DECEMBER 13TH AT THE HASTINGS MUNICIPAL
AIRPORT ONLY DROPPED TO 47 DEGREES. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 36 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1921...93
YEARS AGO. IN ADDITION...THIS RECORD IS TIED AS THE WARMEST MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF DECEMBER. A WARM
MINIMUM OF 47 DEGREES FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER WAS ALSO RECORDED ON
DECEMBER 2 OF 1962 AND DECEMBER 10 OF 1939.

TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT HASTINGS ARE BASED ON NWS COOPERATIVE
OBSERVER REPORTS (HASTINGS 4N) BETWEEN THE YEARS OF 1907 AND JUNE
1996...WITH RECORDS SINCE JULY 1996 FROM THE AUTOMATED SENSOR AT
HASTINGS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT.

[Tom]

12z Euro Ensemble...Bingo....

[Geos]

I think as far as the next 2 weeks go, first the northern Plains and Great Plains see the pattern change back to wintry weather and then the rest of the Midwest the week of the 21st. Nice seeing the models jumping on a stormy period the last 10 days of the month.

 

Those GEFS 500 mb maps have the look of awfully cold after Christmas! Polar air would sweep down the continent into the region.

[Tom]

12z Euro Control...

[bud2380]

Eps control similar to euro. Southern solution. Kentucky and Tennessee May see a white christmas

[bud2380]

Crazy how almost every model showing this storm on or around Xmas eve. Eps control

 

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121412/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121412/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png

[bud2380]

[Tony]

12z control and ensembles look fantastic.

[th_snow]

The Christmas storm might be legit. Every ensemble mean (GFS, ECMWF, CMC)  show something going to the great lakes.

[The Snowman]

i was looking at accuweather fourms and they have 2 seperate threads on the same storm one for the plains,midwest,greatlakes and ohio valley and the other for the mid atlantic and newengland very stupid to even to make these threads because you don't even know what is going to happen.

Since the AccuWeather Forums have so many members, multiple threads for multiple regions for multiple storms are a necessity. What would be stupid is if there was a single storm thread, combining the East Coasters with the OV/GL posters. Then it's just pure mayhem & confusion.

[The Snowman]

12z Euro Ensemble...Bingo....

Interesting that there's such a deep negative anomaly in the Midwest, despite suppressed West Coast ridging & an iffy -EPO look. Not sure how well this particular graphic will verify, as far as predicting the general pattern goes. Guess we'll have to see.

[educatorjen]

Going on record, going to be another brown Christmas in Omaha.  Would be happy if I was wrong.

I would be happy if you were wrong. 

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121412/gfs_asnow_us_33.pngaround 6 inches forcentral il.

[Tom]

Interesting that there's such a deep negative anomaly in the Midwest, despite suppressed West Coast ridging & an iffy -EPO look. Not sure how well this particular graphic will verify, as far as predicting the general pattern goes. Guess we'll have to see.

GFS/GFS Par/Euro show the PNA deeply negative during this period so a SE ridge will be present.  At this time, the ridge out west actually will begin to build so this storm in essence develops on the heals of this massive hemispheric pattern change over our continent.  This is certainly a storm to monitor and one that could really spell trouble for travelers in the mid section of the nation. 

 

All the models are showing a powerful storm cutting up from the deep south with the GOM wide open.  If this storm phases with the polar jet in harmony, this should become a doozy wherever it forms.

Notice the big "disconnect" with the polar jet crashing down out of Canada.  I remember the map you showed of the GHD Blizzard.  I'm not trying to jump the gun, but watch out, this can become spectacular.

[Tom]

18z GFS...still showing it, but weaker...GFS wants to keep the HP farther to the east than the GGEM/EURO which allows it to cut up northeastward.

[tim the weatherman]

GFS/GFS Par/Euro show the PNA deeply negative during this period so a SE ridge will be present.  At this time, the ridge out west actually will begin to build so this storm in essence develops on the heals of this massive hemispheric pattern change over our continent.  This is certainly a storm to monitor and one that could really spell trouble for travelers in the mid section of the nation. 

 

All the models are showing a powerful storm cutting up from the deep south with the GOM wide open.  If this storm phases with the polar jet in harmony, this should become a doozy wherever it forms.

Notice the big "disconnect" with the polar jet crashing down out of Canada.  I remember the map you showed of the GHD Blizzard.  I'm not trying to jump the gun, but watch out, this can become spectacular.

another thing to watch out this in case this could go negative tilt to form a second low to make it an occulded front.

[Tom]

Check out what the CFSv2 is showing down the road.  It has the cold centered in the central CONUS with pronounced ridging along the east coast.  This would create an active storm track from the Plains to the Lakes.  Doesn't this look familiar???  Sure does...just look back what happened in November.  The LRC is def cycling through the pattern.

[tim the weatherman]

the latest update from tropical tidbits website has the 27th storm heading to the eastren seaboard.http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121418/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_41.png

[tim the weatherman]

and according to esrl website showing the pna negative and both epo/wpo going negative as well.

[Thundersnow12]

The CFSv2 images are pretty interesting to say the least, you can see where baroclinic zone would be located and with a dominant SE ridge, the storm track could become quite active with multiple storms for a several week period. 

[GDR]

Member on accuweather forums is saying chicago could get bombed on the 27th!

[Thundersnow12]

Member on accuweather forums is saying chicago could get bombed on the 27th!

 

Is he looking into a crystal ball? There is no way to believe or even know something like that 13 days away. C'mon. 

 

All you can say is some models are showing the chances for some big systems given the overall synoptic pattern that will possibly come to fruition over the coming weeks looking at the ensembles. 

[GDR]

Is he looking into a crystal ball? There is no way to believe or even know something like that 13 days away. C'mon. Maybe that's why he used the word COULD.

 

All you can say is some models are showing the chances for some big systems given the overall system pattern that will possibly come to fruition over the coming weeks looking at the ensembles.

[tim the weatherman]

Member on accuweather forums is saying chicago could get bombed on the 27th!

witch member said that?

[FV-Mike]

I am still holding out hope for the 20th/21st event

[NEJeremy]

image.jpg

 

Lovin' the hole right over Omaha, figures!!

[Thundersnow12]

 

Is he looking into a crystal ball? There is no way to believe or even know something like that 13 days away. C'mon. Maybe that's why he used the word COULD.

 

All you can say is some models are showing the chances for some big systems given the overall system pattern that will possibly come to fruition over the coming weeks looking at the ensembles.

 

 

Yeah and it COULD snow 2 feet of snow on Christmas. Just because someone says it could doesn't make it okay. There is a difference between crying wolf for one specific day because one models says so and looking at the overall pattern and saying the threat will be heightened for significant cyclogenesis during a several week period. 

[Tony]

Welcome to the forum Thundersnow12. I have read many of your posts on the other sites and always look forward to reading them as they are very informative. You couldn't have picked a better time to join as we are heading into an interesting and stormy period.

[GDR]

witch member said that?

the 48weatherman

[tim the weatherman]

the 48weatherman

sorry about that that is me because i am a member on accuweather fourms too oops.

[jaster220]

@ timtheweatherman & GDR

 

found Larry & Mo, where's Curly???

[Scott26]

@ timtheweatherman & GDR

 

found Larry & Mo, where's Curly???

I laughed way too hard at that lol

[Geos]

CFSv2 maps look great that Tom posted. 

 

Current weather is foggy. Took a ride today into Kenosha County and snapped a few pictures of Oak trees in the fog. 

Doesn't look like mid-December!

 

 

[tim the weatherman]

CFSv2 maps look great that Tom posted. 

 

Current weather is foggy. Took a ride today into Kenosha County and snapped a few pictures of Oak trees in the fog. 

Doesn't look like mid-December!

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_12_2014/post-7389-0-99692200-1418614163.jpg

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_12_2014/post-7389-0-11797300-1418614149.jpg

nice pics geos and i agree that those maps tom has posted looks great.

[bud2380]

Gfs looks further north for the Friday system thru 108 hours

[Money]

It's coming north.

 

1009 OK/TX/AR area right now.

[Money]

1010.4 in N. LA at HR 123. Snow is farther north than 18z.

[Geos]

Looks like the low is going to cut close to Memphis on this run.

 

Some snow making it to US 20 on this run.