December 2014 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

12z Euro Ensemble and Control...these maps sure look pretty, for days now....some of the biggest storms that ever form, models "see" their energy over a week out just like this Christmas Eve system.

 

 

 

[GDR]

Panhandle Hook Low pressure systems that originate in the panhandle region of Texas and Oklahoma which initially move east and then "hook" or recurve more northeast toward the upper Midwest or Great Lakes region. In winter, these systems usually deposit heavy snows north of their surface track. Thunderstorms may be found south of the track

[GDR]

My bad sorry!

[The Snowman]

 but nws out of northren ind said chance not chicago in their forecast discussion this morning.

Yes, they did.

 

You originally thought they had said Chicago, I was correcting you.

[Tom]

18z GFS Par back with a bomb over N IL/S WI...its too warm though...notice the 2 separate pieces of energy...one in NW WI, the other in W KY/TN that phase into 1 massive storm.  This is a plausible solution given the fact that this same type of scenario evolved near Japan yesterday.  Obviously track/placement/timing still way to early to pin point this far out.

[Tom]

-PNA/SE Ridge certainly being a big player to the track of these potential cutters over the next 10-15 days.  I think JB and the East Coast crew may be pretty disappointed during the holidays this year.  Just my opinion.

[Tom]

Check out the 12z Euro Ensembles mean from Dec 26-31...SE ridge pretty evident...

[james1976]

Yesterday was 50, today is low 20s with flurries. Nice to see Winter trying to make a comeback. REALLY hoping these systems pan out. 18z GFS not too great looking for Christmas Eve but its still there. The storm after Christmas is actually more intriguing to me. But thats a week and a half out yet.

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121618/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_37.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121618/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_36.png

[tim the weatherman]

low just south of chicagohttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121618/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_31.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121618/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_34.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121618/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121618/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png

[tim the weatherman]

it looks like goes along the il/in state line to sewi up to green bay wi.

[jaster220]

Still some of my best memories.  My father is now 74 and has had quadruple bypass so his riding days are over but he still loves snow even got out the snow blower yesterday.  These memories are why I love winter so much.  Riding all day then going home to a warm house with the smells of my mother's baking and hot chocolate to drink.  My mother died in 1999 but my wife has the same type of baking skills.

 

Similar for me. Until last winter, the region of SEMI where I grew up had set the record snowiest winter back in '74-75 when I was a 5th grader along with all the other great winters of lore in that era. My folks were quite a bit older but my buddies had snowmobiles and we'd have a bunch of fun with 'em. Ah, the good ole days..

[Snowshoe]

My kids are dying to ride they ask every day. Nothing better than a day spent playing in the snow.

 

Similar for me. Until last winter, the region of SEMI where I grew up had set the record snowiest winter back in '74-75 when I was a 5th grader along with all the other great winters of lore in that era. My folks were quite a bit older but my buddies had snowmobiles and we'd have a bunch of fun with 'em. Ah, the good ole days..

[WeatherFanOMA]

Snowshoe, great picture.  Reminds me of when I was young.  My grandparents had some snowmobiles that would we take out on the lake.  That was a long time ago, haven't been on one since.

[Trinomial]

Since it's windy out there, I thought I'd share this great site...Sorry if it has been posted before: https://www.windyty.com/

It has great layers and local forecasts...Not to mention it it has futurecast on wind!

[tim the weatherman]

gary lezak is now saying that after christmas is the when the epo,nao and ao will go negative so that means that much colder weather is on the way due to the lrc.

[jaster220]

My kids are dying to ride they ask every day. Nothing better than a day spent playing in the snow.

 

 

Nice shot! Your kids are lucky. My daughter and I alpine ski these days, that's fun too.   

[clintbeed1993]

GFS just looks odd with those gigantic storms in the east.  Don't think I have ever seen anything like that on the models in the US.

[james1976]

GFS is an unorganized mess with the pre-Christmas storm.

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z200anim.gif

[Tom]

This is going to be another very complicated storm for the models to figure out.  You think the Nov 23/24th storm was hard, this one seems like it will be even harder.  Probably will be another nowcast event if there isn't an earlier phasing of all the pieces of energy that are showing up in the models.

[james1976]

I think im throwing out the 0z GFS. What was that? Shows a strange cutoff low over the lakes and then a powerful storm way out NE and then the post-Christmas storm just falls apart when it gets into the plains. Would teleconnections even support that?

[james1976]

GFS gets more unorganized with each run. Lol

[East Dubzz]

The fact people are paying that close attention to a storm still over a week away just goes to show how lame this winter has been so far.

[clintbeed1993]

Disappointment is very common for us in Nebraska.  At least when winter sucks we are use to it.

[tim the weatherman]

Disappointment is very common for us in Nebraska.  At least when winter sucks we are use to it.

i feel your pain in nebraska and it has to do with the models and the oscillations.

[Money]

0z EURO has a 967 L in S/C MI

 

It has 50-60 kt 850 mb winds in WI/IL

[winterfreak]

Strong but pretty useless for us plains people. Too far south and east. Man if only lol.

[winterfreak]

The storm showing up after it in the rockies is pretty saucy too.

[GDR]

-PNA/SE Ridge certainly being a big player to the track of these potential cutters over the next 10-15 days. I think JB and the East Coast crew may be pretty disappointed during the holidays this year. Just my opinion.

I hope you're right!

[james1976]

Euro must have sucked. Not much talk in here about it. GFS has totally lost the storm for the 27th and the 24th one looks weak.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

The GFS Ensembles actually look pretty good for much of Wisconsin for the period, the warm air advection is kept at bay for the early week action for the most part, so I think most of the precip should be snow, and some of the Ensembles showing a storm right after that.

[winterfreak]

Wow it got extremely quiet in here. You know things aren't going your way when Tom isn't posting.

[Tom]

00z Euro....

 

 

[GDR]

[Snowshoe]

Next week should be fun. Timing is everything and with so many moving parts it's anyone's guess as to what will happen.

[Money]

12z GFS gets it sub 970 again just east of MI. A lot of wrap around snows for IL/WI/MI

[winterfreak]

Brown grass and cold Christmas around here. Yeah snowshoe you're in a great spot. Have fun and it looks like you'll be able to break out the snowmobile!

[Money]

KC is supposed to get 3 inches of snow tonight...

[Tom]

12z GFS gets it sub 970 again just east of MI. A lot of wrap around snows for IL/WI/MI

Great Lakes bomb in the making.  Would be #2 of the season...only if this baby can pull its act together it could dump alot of snow on someone.  Noticing the models are getting a little colder each run.  I think a track similar to the Euro is about right.  GFS always to far east with these type of systems.