December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[HighlandExperience]

Our first year buying season passes was 2004-05.

 

Then ended up giving us free passes for the following year.

 

Ouch!  At least they reimbursed you for the following season.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Two absolutely dreadful starts to the ski season in a row. From a water/snow pack standpoint it is not a good start, but still plenty of time to catch up. Ski resorts on the other hand need an early start because by March people start paying attention to other things and losing interest.

[TT-SEA]

Ouch!  At least they reimbursed you for the following season.

 

 

I feel bad for the people who work up there... and for the resorts.    This is brutal to be shut down in the middle of the prime money making season.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I feel bad for the people who work up there... and for the resorts.    This is brutal to be shut down in the middle of the prime money making season.

I have a good friend who makes a living this time of year by working up there and it has been rough. He has found another means of income but still has been tough on his family. Sucky year for the mountains!

[MikeInEverett]

How are the 12z models looking today?

[BLI snowman]

12z Euro has great offshore ridge placement, trough looks a little too baggy though. Main idea continues however.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Can I get a link to the ECMWF.?

[bainbridgekid]

Can I get a link to the ECMWF.?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2014121612&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=245

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Doesn't look that great.

[BLI snowman]

Can I get a link to the ECMWF.?

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Thanks guys.

[luvssnow_spokane]

12z Euro has great offshore ridge placement, trough looks a little too baggy though. Main idea continues however.

I am still feeling good about this run as one of the keys is the ridge placement and progression. If we can get that in the sweet spot it is just a matter of time. Not an epic run but I do not see anything here that looks that bad. This is standard model flip-flopping. Progression continues.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just had to take a gander at Medford, OR from December 1990. Good lord an 18/-4. Such amazing CAA with that event. 

[Gradient Keeper]

12z ECMWF was fine. Don't particularly focus on finer details yet, look at the main players. The ridge is not sliding east towards us. It simply is reconfiguring at times as systems ride around the top of it. Where is the block offshore at, is the cut-off low near or just north of Hawaii, is there a southeast U.S. ridge? Look for the key factors that will drive the 500mb pattern. The offshore Ridge axis is pretty good, and there is a ridge building over the southeastern U.S. quite strongly by Christmas and thereafter. Trough in British Columbia/Alberta very favorable southwestward digging. After day 10 it looks like to me like the block is about to reorganize near 160 W as the next shortwave heads southeast down the BC Coast. Right in the 11-15 day period aligning perfectly with the ECMWF Weeklies/Ensembles.  Model flip-flopping is likely.... We'll have a much better idea by this weekend whether or not this is going to happen. We should have plenty of model and ensemble data by then.

[luvssnow_spokane]

12z ECMWF was fine. Don't particularly focus on finer details yet, look at the main players. The ridge is not sliding east towards us. It simply is reconfiguring at times as systems ride around the top of it. Where is the block offshore at, is the cut-off low near or just north of Hawaii, is there a southeast U.S. ridge? Look for the key factors that will drive the 500mb pattern. The offshore Ridge axis is pretty good, and there is a ridge building over the southeastern U.S. quite strongly by Christmas and thereafter. Trough in British Columbia/Alberta very favorable southwestward digging. After day 10 it looks like to me like the block is about to reorganize near 160 W as the next shortwave heads southeast down the BC Coast. Right in the 11-15 day period aligning perfectly with the ECMWF Weeklies/Ensembles.  Model flip-flopping is likely.... We'll have a much better idea by this weekend whether or not this is going to happen. We should have plenty of model and ensemble data by then.

 

I love your analysis!... My thoughts exactly and feel the progression is looking very good and can hardly wait for the model output over the weekend  - this is when I will be putting my model riding into high gear. Currently, it has been only a quick look a few times a day. This weekend could be a beginnings of a binge session if things continue to progress favorably.

[Gradient Keeper]

I love your analysis!... My thoughts exactly and feel the progression is looking very good and can hardly wait for the model output over the weekend  - this is when I will be putting my model riding into high gear. Currently, it has been only a quick look a few times a day. This weekend could be a beginnings of a binge session if things continue to progress favorably.

Thanks, and yeah, there could be exciting times ahead. We should ask Marty McFly to hop into the DeLorean and see what the models show December 22-23rd. Stupid time travel nonsense....

[luvssnow_spokane]

Thanks, and yeah, there could be exciting times ahead. We should ask Marty McFly to hop into the DeLorean and see what the models show December 22-23rd. Stupid time travel nonsense....

I heard that the flux capacitor is out of commission until Dec 23... Dang iT!  Well, good news is we should know what is going to happen by then. Besides time travel is overrated and then you deal with the god awful headache and the occasional butterfly effect.

[Gradient Keeper]

[Model Countdown]
18z GFS 1 hour 3 minutes
00z GFS 7 hours 3 minutes
00z GEM 7 hours 28 minutes
00z ECMWF 9 hours 31 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

Another step in the right direction

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Another step in the right direction

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

 

Not a classic PNW cold signature.

[Deweydog]

Not a classic PNW cold signature.

The 40% line appears to be very close to your house!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Not a classic PNW cold signature.

Bs.

[Gradient Keeper]

ECMWF has the PNA tanking nicely just before Christmas.... Another step in the right direction.

 

We have the typical model battle emerging at the early stages of things. GFS/GEM not quite there yet. ECMWF leading the charge as is so typical. I'm definitely going with the ECMWF based on the fact it is far more reliable and accurate in the 6-10 day range, seems to pick up on this kind of pattern quicker than the GFS/GEM, and that the operational has begun to look very similar to the Weeklies/Ensembles. ECMWF almost always leads the way heading into a possible arctic blast.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm going to change my name to Mr. Realism, but there is nothing that has shown anything close to a major blast. Chilly air, perhaps modified arctic perhaps. I hope things trend better.

[stuffradio]

We just need 1.21 Jigawatts.

[Gradient Keeper]

Just had to take a gander at Medford, OR from December 1990. Good lord an 18/-4. Such amazing CAA with that event. 

Wow

[Gradient Keeper]

Is anyone else having problems with the TropicalTidbits site? I love that site, but now it doesn't work just loads and loads a white screen repeatedly. I dumped/cleared cookies and everything else, but no go.... Bummer I really liked the graphics, charts, and super pretty colors.

[HighlandExperience]

I'm going to change my name to Mr. Realism, but there is nothing that has shown anything close to a major blast. Chilly air, perhaps modified arctic perhaps. I hope things trend better.

 

Realistic is good..... Asking for decent snow levels is not asking for much though... Feels like we are in a terrible repeat of last season (possibly worse).

 

18z running...

[Bham_Guy]

Is anyone else having problems with the TropicalTidbits site? I love that site, but now it doesn't work just loads and loads a white screen repeatedly. I dumped/cleared cookies and everything else, but no go.... Bummer I really liked the graphics, charts, and super pretty colors.

 

It works for me, but I have to click the "click here" link first.

 

Running slowly on your computer? Click here for the simple HTML version

[Deweydog]

18z clearly initializing very different from the 12z.  The 534dm 500-1000mb thickness line is clearly 15-20 miles further south.  

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=006&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_006_1000_500_thick.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=1000_500_thick&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141216+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area\

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=000&image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_000_1000_500_thick.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=1000_500_thick&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141216+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area

[antipex]

We just need 1.21 Gigawatts.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

18z clearly initializing very different from the 12z.  The 534dm 500-1000mb thickness line is clearly 15-20 miles further south.  

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=006&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_006_1000_500_thick.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=1000_500_thick&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141216+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area\

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=000&image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_000_1000_500_thick.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=1000_500_thick&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141216+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area

Getting dangerous.

[Gradient Keeper]

Hmmm.....

.LONG TERM...NO UPDATE FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM  MOVES ONSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH RAIN TURNING TO SHOWERS. BY  THIS TIME...THE JET HAS RETURNED TO OUR LATITUDE VS CALIFORNIA. A  SHORTWAVE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH BUILDS ONSHORE SATURDAY  BEFORE THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES BY SUNDAY.  AGAIN...PROG TIMING DIFFERS HERE. BUT THE DRIER DAY OVER THE WEEKEND  APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY.   PREVIOUS GUIDANCE OFFERED A PRETTY WET PERIOD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF TO SOME DEGREE. THIS SITUATION BEARS  WATCHING FOR NOW. *ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON A POSSIBLE KONA LOW THAT  WOULD CHANGE THE AMPLITUDE OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE FLOW PATTERN  AND OFFER COOLER AIR FOR THE PACIFIC NW AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW FOR  THE SNOW STARVED MOUNTAINS IN THE LONGER RANGE. STAY TUNED HERE.  BUEHNER

[luvssnow_spokane]

Remember... It's only the 18z...  

[Gradient Keeper]

Remember... It's only the 18z...  

That's right...

 

00z GFS in 5 hours 4 minutes!

00z GEM in 5 hours 25 minutes!

00z ECMWF in 7 hours 32 minutes!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Here is the 18Z on Christmas Eve... Still promising...  Much better than the 12z (which there was some moaning over) and more in lines with the previous 6z run. Enjoy!

 

 

[Bryant]

Strong Upper Level Low over the Sea of Okhtosk equates to a -PNA / Western trough around the ~10th of January.

 

http://i.imgur.com/egJIPqF.jpg

[luvssnow_spokane]

Just for grins and giggles... OR maybe some chilly frost bumps check out hour 252... Fantasy land -- but again shows continued promise! Remember this is the 18z!! So, it could be on crack.

 

 

 

 

 

EDIT: Also looks down right chilly on Christmas day with 850mb temps in Seattle at -8 to -9ish range.  This is cold enough for what we all want on Christmas... *S word*  The word we shall not say to not jinx it!

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 18z isn't bad. Especially for Bellingham.

[stuffradio]

The 18Z shows an inch of snow for Abbotsford on Christmas.