December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Kayla]

00z ECMWF is fantastic tonight. Loving the trends.

[Phil]

I know what your winter outlook said. But you've definitely made comments in the past week indicating you were leaning away from the New Year and closer to mid January for the Western blast.

 

No worries, you gave yourself originally a wide enough window of late Dec to mid Jan, and yes, your comments have always fit somewhere in that window.

You can interpret my posts however you'd like, but if I felt I needed to change something, I'd highlight the fact that I'm doing so. I provide these "windows" to allow myself some wiggle room, as I'm never going to be able to nail the timing these progressions 100%.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF and GFS are very far apart right now, but the ECMWF has consistency and strong support from its ensemble going for it.  This new ECMWF is solidly cold.  Very nice.  A white Christmas isn't out of the question with that solution.

[Front Ranger]

You can interpret my posts however you'd like, but if I felt I needed to change something, I'd highlight the fact that I'm doing so. I provide these "windows" to allow myself some wiggle room, as I'm never going to be able to nail the timing these progressions 100%.

 

Absolutely. I'm just going off of what you seemed to be saying (repeatedly): the PV gets destroyed around New Years or shortly thereafter, and then the East gets hit first with Arctic air, and then likely the West by mid January, probably including the PNW in a coast to coast ice box. 

 

If you got all of that exactly correct, that would be amazing. So kudos ahead of time if that happens. It just didn't sound to me like you were thinking the West would get hit as soon as around New Years before, although you did think the Arctic train could begin rumbling south into the U.S. by then.

[bainbridgekid]

I feel like the North interior is due for a winter blast. There is definitely some bias at play here... but the continuous cold and dry events become very repetitive without some snow along with it. Unfortunately, the North interior scoring usually comes at a cost of anyone south of Seattle receiving rain.

We'll always have February 23rd, 2014.

[wx_statman]

Understood.

 

As I mentioned before, I look at these things from a macroscale standpoint..you generally almost always see these airmasses max out and slide SE along/east of the mountains as angular momentum is conserved. The mesoscale stuff is mostly out of my league.

 

There is no arguing that. I wasn't out to prove anything btw. I just wanted to highlight an event that challenged the normal progression of things (December 1968), even though technically it didn't defy physics.

[snow_wizard]

I am so tired of the weather pattern we have been on.  The wind just keeps blowing and blowing and blowing for hours on end here.  It's keeping the atmosphere totally mixed and ridiculously warm compared to pretty much everywhere else.  Thank God it's about to change.

[snow_wizard]

There is no arguing that. I wasn't out to prove anything btw. I just wanted to highlight an event that challenged the normal progression of things (December 1968), even though technically it didn't defy physics.

 

When talking about Dec 1968 it is worth noting Mazama dropped to -48 during that.  Pretty respectable even by east of the Rockies standards.

[ShawniganLake]

I am so tired of the weather pattern we have been on. The wind just keeps blowing and blowing and blowing for hours on end here. It's keeping the atmosphere totally mixed and ridiculously warm compared to pretty much everywhere else. Thank God it's about to change.

41/28 here today.

[snow_wizard]

41/28 here today.

 

Nice.  It only dropped to 45 here this morning while 5 miles down the road it was in the upper 20s.

 

This stupid wind here just gets so irritating in a pattern like this.  It's like Chinese water torture sometimes.

[Deweydog]

Nice. It only dropped to 45 here this morning while 5 miles down the road it was in the upper 20s.

 

This stupid wind here just gets so irritating in a pattern like this. It's like Chinese water torture sometimes.

It would get windy if it got really cold.

[Gradient Keeper]

Tonight’s ECMWF run was excellent and almost bitterly cold for us. Pattern change begins in just 7-8 days upstream/offshore. This is in the believable range with the ECMWF. GFS, GEM? Not usually. Also, with the Kona low northwest of Hawaii at 160 W and what looks like a building southeastern US ridge, this could be quite special. I would still like to see the Alaskan block slightly further west, a bit stronger, and more amplified, but I’m not complaining. Very important to note as well that this matches up almost exactly with the New Euro Weeklies, so perhaps we’re going to see support building for this and eventually the disagreeing GFS/GEM hop on board. If we see runs the next 3-4 days reveal a sharper southeastern ridge, rising heights over Great Lakes area, and 500mb over southern Alaska at 564dam, look out!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Still looking good for some wintery weather toward the end of December, it's nice to see the models have been backing away from amplifying ridging over the PNW. Instead we have a low amplitude ridge developing slightly offshore with plenty of energy riding over it. This feature develops 120-150 hours out so we're not talking long range lala land anymore.

 

If that thing can get an opening in the Bering Strait this place will be buzzing around Christmas:

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/gfs_namer_153_500_vort_ht_zpsfed64d18.gif

[snow_wizard]

It would get windy if it got really cold.

 

It doesn't always work out that way here.  Sometimes the gradients remain more northerly.  I just really hate a good inversion being ruined in a case like this.  Call me strange...

[Gradient Keeper]

It may only be midnight, but....Time for a....
[Model Countdown]
6z GFS 1 hour 23 minutes
12z GFS 7 hours 23 minutes
12z GEM 7 hours 45 minutes
12z ECMWF 9 hours 52 minutes

[ShawniganLake]

http://www.mountwashington.ca/webcams/tubepark/full1.jpg

 

Snowy night at mount Washington ski resort here on Vancouver Island.  They need it.

 

Click on the picture or link if you want to watch it snow in realtime. 

 

http://www.mountwashington.ca/winter/snow-tubing.html

[Phil]

Absolutely. I'm just going off of what you seemed to be saying (repeatedly): the PV gets destroyed around New Years or shortly thereafter, and then the East gets hit first with Arctic air, and then likely the West by mid January, probably including the PNW in a coast to coast ice box.

 

If you got all of that exactly correct, that would be amazing. So kudos ahead of time if that happens. It just didn't sound to me like you were thinking the West would get hit as soon as around New Years before, although you did think the Arctic train could begin rumbling south into the U.S. by then.

Well, next time I'll try to give a specific window with dates to avoid confusion.

 

One problem I might have is the timing of the PV-bifurcation..it will depend on how long it can maintain a barotropic structure..once it goes baroclinic, it's toast..but that might take until the 2nd week of January, unfortunately..a tad later than the 2012-13 breakdown..

[Gradient Keeper]

....El Niño Watch....
Update prepared by:
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
December 15 2014

ENSO - neutral conditions continue.*
Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across the Pacific Ocean. There is an approximately 65% chance of El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere winter, which is favored to last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.*

Last weeks SST Departures were:
Niño 4: 0.9ºC
Niño 3.4: 0.8ºC
Niño 3: 0.7ºC
Niño 1+2: 0.0ºC

The new latest weekly SST Departures are:
Niño 4: 0.9ºC
Niño 3.4: 0.9ºC
Niño 3: 0.9ºC
Niño 1+2: 0.2ºC

Full technical and detailed information can be found here:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

 

[Phil]

I am so tired of the weather pattern we have been on. The wind just keeps blowing and blowing and blowing for hours on end here. It's keeping the atmosphere totally mixed and ridiculously warm compared to pretty much everywhere else. Thank God it's about to change.

I definitely agree...haven't Sun in over 10 days, everything is iced over up here due to freezing fog/drizzle

[ShawniganLake]

Euro ensemble looks encouraging.  -8C 850 temps approaching the SW BC coast

 

http://download.ecmwf.org/data/web249/get_legacy_plot-web249-20141216082753-28079-0767.gif

[Snow]

Euro ensemble looks encouraging. -8C 850 temps approaching the SW BC coast

 

http://download.ecmwf.org/data/web249/get_legacy_plot-web249-20141216082753-28079-0767.gif

That's tremendous. Always great to see the ensembles showing support to the operational run.

[Phil]

06z GFS suggests the PV goes baroclinic w/ a double anticyclonic break..primed for a good-ol' shreddin'

[Snow]

[Gradient Keeper]

White Christmas?

6z GFS is looking good and definitely a step in the right direction trending towards the ECMWF. Pattern change begins after day 7 and 500mb is favorable with a Rex Block that evolves into an Omega Block. It is close to being a major arctic blast. Things turn very chilly Christmas eve/Christmas Day as 850s fall to -4 to -5c with POSSIBLY some snow around PDX metro. Yep. Seriously. White Christmas looks likely Gorge east and above 500-1000'. Arctic blast arrives just after Christmas from Bellingham and throughout the Columbia Basin. Eventually westerlies undercut the block for increased precip chances(Snow/ZR) after day 10. This could be a very snowy pattern. It's encouraging, but yes, it's only one run. Let's see how the Ensembles shake out and 12z runs later this morning. Just for fun at face value December 28th - December 30th would feature an incredible Winter Storm/Snow Storm for the Willamette Valley/PDX metro, then turning into a very severe Ice Storm possibly. This is still 7-8 days out until we see a major pattern change begin, so we can only speculate at this time, but it sure is fun isn't it!

12z GFS in 3 hours 32 minutes
12z GEM in 4 hours hours
12z ECMWF in 6 hours 11 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS DAY 8-14 Composite Analog
 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_06gfs814.gif

[TT-SEA]

Cold is moving up and becoming stronger in the models. The 06Z GFS is better than the 00Z ECMWF. Same thing happened with last 2 rounds.

 

Looking like a white Christmas for some... possibly favoring c-zone areas in this set up again.

[TT-SEA]

Interesting article about the warmth in Anchorage...

 

http://www.adn.com/article/20141215/anchorages-persistent-warm-weather-so-far-winter-may-be-record-setting

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking forward to the 12Z runs.

[Alex_Snakes]

Can't complain about the 6z run. How fun would that be for Xmas?

 

This weekend looks a little wet.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just took a good look at the 06z. Very favorable pattern.

[catnip]

..

[WS Snow]

Getting exciting again...can't wait for the torch to end.  We are overdue for a favorable snow/cold pattern.

[catnip]

Pattern was better on the 06z. Still a ways out though. Go Euro!

[TT-SEA]

Looking forward to the 12Z runs.

 

 

12Z GFS and 12Z Canadian are not good at all.

 

Horrible actually... compared to the 00Z ECMWF

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12Z GFS and 12Z Canadian are not good at all.

 

Horrible actually... compared to the 00Z ECMWF

 

This is correct.

[Parksvillewx]

12Z GFS and 12Z Canadian are not good at all.

 

Horrible actually... compared to the 00Z ECMWF

 

Let the model flopping begin!

[HighlandExperience]

12Z GFS and 12Z Canadian are not good at all.

 

Horrible actually... compared to the 00Z ECMWF

 

I feel bad for anyone who purchased a seasons pass this year at any ski resort.

 

Hope the ECMWF is better.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Everything is still there on 12z. just shifted north.

[IbrChris]

It happened in December 1968. Needless to say, that's not normal.

I'd venture to say that wasn't the only time...but as a rule the coldest 850 mb temps slide down east of the Rockies...that is simply due to 850 mb being below pass level in the Rockies.

[TT-SEA]

I feel bad for anyone who purchased a seasons pass this year at any ski resort.

 

Hope the ECMWF is better.

 

Our first year buying season passes was 2004-05.

 

Then ended up giving us free passes for the following year.