December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

Definitely 2-3" in the Salmon Creek area that morning, my mom reported about that too before sublimation kicked in.

 

https://fox12weather.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/marksnowtotalsnorthmetroonly.png

 

We'll have to go to the booth with this one.  

[Front Ranger]

Haha, I digress. It got cold, mid-latitude wave train was highly amplified. I just look at things in a detail-oriented manner.

 

Pretty much. There was blocking that led to cold air heading south into the Western U.S. 

[snow_wizard]

There are some real jaw dropping ensemble members on the 18z.  Things are trending the right way.

[BLI snowman]

We'll have to go to the booth with this one.  

 

Every inch counts, baby.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I remember 12/14/2008 very well. I got up at about 7am to head to my 12 hour shift at work. It was snowing moderately and there was about 1/2" of snow on the ground (This was in Silverton). By the time 9:30am rolled around there was a 10-15mph south wind and some sunbreaks. All the snow had melted and I was in full weenie meltdown mode. My brother texted me and told me not to freak out that we'd have a chance at more snow in the afternoon when the arctic front pushed through. By about 2pm temps had warmed into the low 40s with the south wind and sunbreaks, but there were dark clouds getting closer from the north. About 3pm or so my dad called me at work and said that it had begun sleeting at his place about 3 miles to the NW, within about 15 minutes sleet began falling which quickly turned to snow and between about 330-530pm we picked up a quick 2.5" of snow. Fun day.

 

Last December 6th was more frustrating then fun, snowed the entire day, more like flurried, only amounting to a little over 1".

[BLI snowman]

I'm sticking to my guns on this one. There are usually benefits to big picture thinking, but I don't see this being one of those cases. Forget laypeople, even most weather weenies won't care if their cold airmass came down from Alberta or Nunavut. It doesn't matter.

 

The January 2013 airmass just wasn't particularly impressive, got down to about -10c at 850mb over Bellingham and maybe -9c over Spokane. That and the lack of offshore pressure gradients made it more of an upper level trough/inversion hybrid event than anything else. Calling it an arctic airmass is a stretch in my mind because the regional CAA just wasn't there, even at the outset.

 

Not a biggie, but I tend to make a distinction between that and an actual backdoor or Fraser river event. 

[wx_statman]

I remember 12/14/2008 very well. I got up at about 7am to head to my 12 hour shift at work. It was snowing moderately and there was about 1/2" of snow on the ground (This was in Silverton). By the time 9:30am rolled around there was a 10-15mph south wind and some sunbreaks. All the snow had melted and I was in full weenie meltdown mode. My brother texted me and told me not to freak out that we'd have a chance at more snow in the afternoon when the arctic front pushed through. By about 2pm temps had warmed into the low 40s with the south wind and sunbreaks, but there were dark clouds getting closer from the north. About 3pm or so my dad called me at work and said that it had begun sleeting at his place about 3 miles to the NW, within about 15 minutes sleet began falling which quickly turned to snow and between about 330-530pm we picked up a quick 2.5" of snow. Fun day.

 

Last December 6th was more frustrating then fun, snowed the entire day, more like flurried, only amounting to a little over 1".

 

We had a much cleaner transition to Arctic air here in Oregon City. We had around 3" of snow in the late morning to early afternoon hours (3.3" officially at the COOP) with temperatures below freezing. By early evening we were down into the mid 20's. The snow had stopped falling but the NE gusts were still blowing it around. Snow blowing off roofs against the background of Christmas lights is a beautiful sight!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I would agree that there was not arctic air west of the Cascades in January 2013. It was a very cold month thanks to the epic inversion that set up after the initial shot of cold air. 

 

Some fun facts. Salem's 5 sub freezing highs were the most in January since 1979. Salem also ran off 13 straight sub-40 highs. 

[Front Ranger]

The January 2013 airmass just wasn't particularly impressive, got down to about -10c at 850mb over Bellingham and maybe -9c over Spokane. That and the lack of offshore pressure gradients made it more of an upper level trough/inversion hybrid event than anything else. Calling it an arctic airmass is a stretch in my mind because the regional CAA just wasn't there, even at the outset.

 

Not a biggie, but I tend to make a distinction between that and an actual backdoor or Fraser river event. 

 

The coldest air definitely missed to the east, and you're right that it wasn't all that impressive from an 850s standpoint.

 

But it still managed to produce some pretty cold temps in the Intermountain West. Though not on the level of Dec 2009 or Dec 2013, overall.

 

Just to clarify, this conversation started with me calling it a weak event for the PNW...I don't think anyone has said otherwise. I called it an "arctic" event overall for the West, and I guess that's debatable...regardless, it still produced the coldest temps for the West overall in January since 2007. Which obviously isn't saying a whole lot, since the coldest intrusions have all been occurring in Nov/Dec/Feb.

[bainbridgekid]

I remember 12/14/2008 very well. I got up at about 7am to head to my 12 hour shift at work. It was snowing moderately and there was about 1/2" of snow on the ground (This was in Silverton). By the time 9:30am rolled around there was a 10-15mph south wind and some sunbreaks. All the snow had melted and I was in full weenie meltdown mode. My brother texted me and told me not to freak out that we'd have a chance at more snow in the afternoon when the arctic front pushed through. By about 2pm temps had warmed into the low 40s with the south wind and sunbreaks, but there were dark clouds getting closer from the north. About 3pm or so my dad called me at work and said that it had begun sleeting at his place about 3 miles to the NW, within about 15 minutes sleet began falling which quickly turned to snow and between about 330-530pm we picked up a quick 2.5" of snow. Fun day.

 

Last December 6th was more frustrating then fun, snowed the entire day, more like flurried, only amounting to a little over 1".

I remember it very well on Bainbridge as well.

 

We had a Winter Storm Warning on Friday the 12th with like 4-7" forecast. The low ended up going North and it was nothing but rain. That was a fascinating one because the models never came into agreement about the crucial track of the low up until the event actually started. I was in high school and everyone was bitching about how it was not going to snow at all. I just laughed and assured them that bust had no bearing on the good snow chances coming up. I don't think anybody believed me till the snow started falling again.

 

We got 2" as the arctic front moved through around 10 PM on the 13th. The 14th, 15th, and 16th all had highs in the upper 20's. It was glorious.

 

Despite two separate Winter Storm Warnings that resulted in zero snowfall for Seattle (12th and 17th) that month was still incredible.

[Front Ranger]

I remember it very well on Bainbridge as well.

 

We had a Winter Storm Warning on Friday the 12th with like 4-7" forecast. The low ended up going North and it was nothing but rain. That was a fascinating one because the models never came into agreement about the crucial track of the low up until the event actually started. I was in high school and everyone was bitching about how it was not going to snow at all. I just laughed and assured them that bust had no bearing on the good snow chances coming up. I don't think anybody believed me till the snow started falling again.

 

We got 2" as the arctic front moved through around 10 PM on the 13th. The 14th, 15th, and 16th all had highs in the upper 20's. It was glorious.

 

Despite two separate Winter Storm Warnings that resulted in zero snowfall for Seattle (12th and 17th) that month was still incredible.

 

Huh, totally forgot about that.

[bainbridgekid]

Huh, totally forgot about that.

Yep.

 

The 12th was a high risk / high reward situation where one model (I think the NAM) depicted a heavy 6" snowfall with a strong low coming in just South of Seattle the night before and it ended up around Forks with all rain.

 

The 17th the models depicted a pretty strong rain shadow for the Central Sound but the NWS hoisted a WSW for all areas. Schools closed in anticipation and it ended up in the mid-upper 30's and 25 mph South wind with melting snow. Olympia got like 4-7" and the North Sound got hit hard but the Central Sound was shadowed all day.

 

Then of course the next morning everything finally slipped South and a strong CZ/arctic front hammered the Central Sound with 3-6".

[Snow]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I am really looking forward to tonight's upcoming 00z model runs. Here are 7 lucky 4 leaf clovers for tonight's runs.

 

You crack me up.

[BLI snowman]

Strong offshore flow surfacing tonight, east wind gusts of 38mph at PDX and a dewpoint of 24 now at SEA. A very continental airmass with a nothing pattern like this is encouraging to me, this just feels like a winter where offshore flow has been consistently winning out and that's a pattern that usually lasts through much of the winter.

[stuffradio]

I am really looking forward to tonight's upcoming 00z model runs. Here are 7 lucky 4 leaf clovers for tonight's runs.

St. Patrick's day isn't for another 3 months.

[Gradient Keeper]

Downslope east wind storm/event in progress
Clark County – Power Outages
Vancouver 0
Cascade Park/Orchards 0
Camas/Washougal 0
Hazel Dell/Salmon Creek 4
Battle Ground/Hockinson 43,012
Amboy/Yacolt 260
La Center/Ridgefield 0
Total 43,276

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, interestingly I am getting about 20-25mph gusts from the NE. I'm generally pretty wind sheltered in E wind situations. 

[bainbridgekid]

Interesting to see the difference in the low level airmass as you get closer to the Cascades.

 

SEA's pushing 50 and it's 32 in Bremerton. 36 at my parents' house on Bainbridge.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

It's cold here in Poulsbo.  Currently 32 at my house.

[Parksvillewx]

32F here now.

 

Not much posting tonight..must be the suspense of the 00z model runs.

[Gradient Keeper]

32F here now.

 

Not much posting tonight..must be the suspense of the 00z model runs.

00z GEM/GFS operational are both garbage tonight

Onto the 00z ECMWF, Ensembles, Analog composites....

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This looks fun...

 

http://www.wxcaster4.com/cfs/CONUS_CFS_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_107HR.gif

[Snowman5678]

Yep.

 

The 12th was a high risk / high reward situation where one model (I think the NAM) depicted a heavy 6" snowfall with a strong low coming in just South of Seattle the night before and it ended up around Forks with all rain.

 

The 17th the models depicted a pretty strong rain shadow for the Central Sound but the NWS hoisted a WSW for all areas. Schools closed in anticipation and it ended up in the mid-upper 30's and 25 mph South wind with melting snow. Olympia got like 4-7" and the North Sound got hit hard but the Central Sound was shadowed all day.

 

Then of course the next morning everything finally slipped South and a strong CZ/arctic front hammered the Central Sound with 3-6".

 

I had just over a foot of snow with the CZ on the 18th. I remember being so dissapointed on the 17th but got to miss my chinese final whith mitagted my dissapointment a bit. I was woken up early thursday morning to a rumble of thunder with dumping snow. The snow kept dumping all morning long. Amazing day!

[Gradient Keeper]

This looks fun...

 

http://www.wxcaster4.com/cfs/CONUS_CFS_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_107HR.gif

Promising.... Thank god for the 642 hour CFS

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, wow. The 00z is a real buzz kill.

[wx_statman]

Yeah, wow. The 00z is a real buzz kill.

It's only a buzz kill if you were buzzin' to begin with...

[TT-SEA]

00Z Canadian improved over its previous runs.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

[ShawniganLake]

00z GEM/GFS operational are both garbage tonight

Onto the 00z ECMWF, Ensembles, Analog composites....

I wouldn't call the long range GEM garbage.  Pattern progression looks okay at days 8-10.  Lacks amplification though.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It's only a buzz kill if you were buzzin' to begin with...

True. I'm not the person who guaranteed an arctic blast.

[stuffradio]

True. I'm not the person who guaranteed an arctic blast.

I think we can safely say you were the only one guaranteeing an arctic blast.

[Deweydog]

Yeah, wow. The 00z is a real buzz kill.

Definitely on par with January 2005, 2011 and such.

 

This one stings.

[snow_wizard]

The GFS ensemble is a whole lot better than the operational.  A lot of members deliver the goods somewhere in the 10 to 16 day period.

[snow_wizard]

Windy here again tonight.  No shortage of that over the past month.  Things should be a lot quieter in that regard with higher pressure setting up over the NE Pacific.

[Phil]

Again, I think late-December is too early..first shot looks like a glancing blow at best, IMO..

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF is a wee bit interesting at day 10.

[epiceast]

Euro 00z is toying with valley snow.

[snow_wizard]

One very interesting aspect of the ECMWF is the strong surface low over the Intermountain region.  That featue is going to serve to draw a lot of cold air southward and rotate it westward along the top of the low.  That together with the fabulous high pressure complex over the NE Pacific and Western Canada would almost certainly deliver a solidly cold air mass to the PNW on Christmas.

[Snow]

One very interesting aspect of the ECMWF is the strong surface low over the Intermountain region. That featue is going to serve to draw a lot of cold air southward and rotate it westward along the top of the low. That together with the fabulous high pressure complex over the NE Pacific and Western Canada would almost certainly deliver a solidly cold air mass to the PNW on Christmas.

Great analysis.

[Gradient Keeper]

Happy to see ECMWF not backing off whatsoever. In fact, after that next shortwave in the Gulf of Alaska slides southeast down the backside of the ridge the block will probably will pop up behind it even more favorably, very amplified too.