December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[stuffradio]

How is the 12z looking?

The cold air has moved up to hour 216 on the OP!

[catnip]

[snow_wizard]

The parallel GFS is really chilly looking for Christmas.

[snow_wizard]

It actually managed to drop to 29 here with heavy frost and fog this morning.

[MossMan]

Looks a little different than the map Tim posted yesterday for Christmas Eve!

[snow_wizard]

As you can see the parallel model is quite a bit sharper with the shortwave trough on day 10.  Surface gradients become northerly over WA.  This model had a surface low tracking right along the WA / OR border at day 10 with brisk northerly gradients over WA.  Could have been a lowland snow setup, but 850 maps aren't available on that model so hard to tell for sure.

 

[snow_wizard]

One other thing I'd like to point out is both of the cold snaps we've had so far this season were shown to be less than this one when they were less than a week out.  It bears watching.

[snow_wizard]

The Dec 2006 analogs we've been seeing have now graduated to Jan 2007 analogs.  I would gladly take a repeat.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A word of caution. On the page where that 500-1000mb parallel GFS chart showing 507 thickness at PDX was posted, the caption was "Here is the parallel GFS which has been having a lot of issues in the long range."  

[snow_wizard]

A word of caution. On the page where that 500-1000mb parallel GFS chart showing 507 thickness at PDX was posted, the caption was "Here is the parallel GFS which has been having a lot of issues in the long range."  

 

Lovely.  I thought the model was supposed to be an upgrade.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mark Nelsen posted some long range ensembles this morning. Looks like the EURO is digging the idea of retrogression after Christmas. The GEM and GFS, not so much.

[snow_wizard]

The MJO forecasts have trended toward being extremely favorable for an Arctic event in the NW in the rather near future.  Very much like the past wave, but slower moving if the models are to be believed.

[snow_wizard]

Mark Nelsen posted some long range ensembles this morning. Looks like the EURO is digging the idea of retrogression after Christmas. The GEM and GFS, not so much.

 

The GFS is lagging about one octant behind the ECMWF on the MJO progress.  The ECMWF has been the best model by far on MJO this season.  Even the GFS has come on board for a little cold snap around Christmas.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

http://weathernorthwest.com/

[TT-SEA]

Christmas Eve on the 12Z Canadian and GFS.    Hoping the GFS has a better handle on things.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_240_500_vort_ht.gif

[snow_wizard]

A couple of interesting notes about the last few analog composites.  One is this represents a total anomaly field reversal from what we have seen most of this season, and two is many of the analogs are from La Nina winters.  Amazingly 2006-07 continues to show a strong presence with 2003-04 also hanging in there.  Those have both been considered very strong analogs this season for a myriad of reasons.  No doubt things are going to be a lot colder than they've been.

 

[snow_wizard]

http://weathernorthwest.com/

 

Pretty horrible consistency alright.

[bainbridgekid]

What a gorgeous December morning. Chilly and not a cloud in the sky.

[TT-SEA]

What a gorgeous December morning. Chilly and not a cloud in the sky.

Beautiful.

[snow_wizard]

Nice trend on the 12z ensemble.  The mean for the blocking has shifted more to the NW with a number of cold members for the PNW.

[Kayla]

12z ECMWF at 240 hours is money

[Kayla]

http://download.ecmwf.org/data/web249/get_legacy_plot-web249-20141214185613-28094-0539.gif

[Deweydog]

Might be skiing by New Years...

[Jesse]

Might be skiing by New Years...

Good news.

[Deweydog]

Good news.

 

It's been a rough few years up there.  

[Snowman5678]

 Looking way better for mountain snow over the next couple of weeks. 

 

Through Christmas Eve:

 

BTW .3" in Olympia is a lock! 

[Gradient Keeper]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121412/gfsp_z500_mslp_namer_41.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121412/gfsp_z500a_namer_41.png

[Gradient Keeper]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121412/ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png

[Jesse]

It's been a rough few years up there.

Even rougher in Silverton's Silverton Hills.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Even rougher in Silverton's Silverton Hills.

 

After the epic winter of 2011-12, combined with Phil's promise of a coming ice age I began work on a small ski hill. Hoping that my proximity to Oregon's 3rd largest city would be a boon despite the palty 75' vertical drop on the run. Since then my hill has been largely bare or covered in snowfall which does not even cover the unmowed (No ski season no money for maintenance) grass all the way, and the lifts have sat silent (manual tow rope). The lack of snow has a real impact on the Silverton Hills economy...

[MossMan]

A perfect morning to get the tree!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121412/ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png

 

Hmmmmm

[bainbridgekid]

Might be skiing by New Years...

Yeah I think so.

 

The next 5-7 days look fairly dry but the 7-12 day period is definitely looking like a fairly good mountain snow pattern is likely. If we could transition from that into a sexier retrogressed pattern it'd be the icing on the cake.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A perfect morning to get the tree!

 

Very nice.

 

I heard that it has been a good year for the tree farms. The past 5-6 years have been pretty bleak up here. A common scene after Christmas the last few years has been the tree farms pulling the mature trees they were unable to sell and burning them (Freshly pulled Christmas trees in the middle of winter actually don't burn, they just kind of smolder for weeks on end.). This year it doesn't look like that will be happening at least to that scope as the farmers have been telling me that business is brisk. Part of that is also that the glut of trees which were planted in the mid 2000s has now waned. 

[bainbridgekid]

Very nice.

 

I heard that it has been a good year for the tree farms. The past 5-6 years have been pretty bleak up here. A common scene after Christmas the last few years has been the tree farms pulling the mature trees they were unable to sell and burning them (Freshly pulled Christmas trees in the middle of winter actually don't burn, they just kind of smolder for weeks on end.). This year it doesn't look like that will be happening at least to that scope as the farmers have been telling me that business is brisk. Part of that is also that the glut of trees which were planted in the mid 2000s has now waned. 

Interesting. I wouldn't think the demand for Christmas trees would vary much from year to year.

 

I'm going home to Bainbridge to watch the Seahawks game and get our tree today. Absolutely gorgeous views of the Olympics over the fog from the ferry right now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interesting. I wouldn't think the demand for Christmas trees would vary much from year to year.

 

I'm going home to Bainbridge to watch the Seahawks game and get our tree today. Absolutely gorgeous views of the Olympics over the fog from the ferry right now.

 

I'm not sure how much the local market varies, but the overall market has been on a strong decline since the start of the great recession. Part of the reason is that most of the trees grown in Oregon (The #1 Christmas tree producing state in the US), go to outside markets, most notably California. A tree that may cost $30-40 in Oregon may cost as much as $100 or more in California. Because of the recession many people in the more expensive markets were opting to purchase fake trees, which may be a bigger one time expense, but can be used year after year. Also the quality of tree that one buys in California is lower than a local lot in the PNW because obviously the tree at the local lot in the PNW is fresh cut. They start cutting the trees for the foreign and distant domestic markets up here around Halloween. 

 

Just how far do PNW grown trees go? To places like Hawaii, Japan, and all over the US. When I bought a tree at Lowe's in 2009 when I lived in Oklahoma, the tag said that it was grown near Estacada, Oregon. 

[snow_wizard]

No doubt the model trends are fantastic right now.  The 12z GFS ensemble is the best by far.  A number of members drop below -5 for Seattle.  The control model is downright frigid late in the run.  Nice to see some freakish cold runs of various models showing up.

 

[Guest daniel1]

A couple of interesting notes about the last few analog composites.  One is this represents a total anomaly field reversal from what we have seen most of this season, and two is many of the analogs are from La Nina winters.  Amazingly 2006-07 continues to show a strong presence with 2003-04 also hanging in there.  Those have both been considered very strong analogs this season for a myriad of reasons.  No doubt things are going to be a lot colder than they've been.

 

I likey!

[snow_wizard]

I love the ECMWF surface pressure progs for day 10.  1040mb up into the Aleutians usually mean very cold weather on the way for us.  Dare I say a white Christmas is actually possible?

 

[Front Ranger]

A perfect morning to get the tree!

 

Looks like the baby has been fattening up for the long winter ahead. Good sign!