December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

How bout that Marcus Mariota.

[snow_wizard]

This would be a little too cold for my tastes.  I don't need single digit highs.  Nevertheless, if it came with precipitation, I would take it!

 

Twould be the cold wave of the century so far if it verified.  Ones like that usually have snow.

[Gradient Keeper]

Holy crap!  507 at PDX probably means more like 503 or 504 for SEA.  The amazing thing is how suddenly this pattern change has shown up.  It will take the models a while to stabilize and figure it out.  I'm glad to see the revised model showing this as opposed to the regular version.  That profile clearly shows it won't be a quicky either.

Holy cows!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mariota's Heisman means many Kona lows in our future.

[Gradient Keeper]

Mariota's Heisman means many Kona lows in our future.

Agreed, and him taking it home tonight guarantees a cold, snowy Winter.

[Gradient Keeper]

I just went back and looked at the 12z WRF run primarily the 4km Time Height and Sounding for Thursday morning before the Wind Storm occurred. If you remember in my analysis after the Wind Storm I mentioned the culprit was extremely efficient mixing and winds aloft to the surface were aligned identically over Willamette Valley for good momentum transfer forced downward. The warm afternoon temps and drying aloft helped too. These next few images display this nicely. I grabbed the 4km Time Height, but the best representation by far is from the 4k Sounding from Thursday 1 to 7 PM. Check out the winds aloft from 15000' to 18000' down through the mid-levels and all the way to the surface. Note that throughout the column they show the exact same wind direction from due south to southwesterly.

This is why PDX area saw the very strong gusts seeming to come in bursts due to that mixing and momentum transfer. The 4km Sounding gave us a great clue and what to look for. The next time models are showing a deep low to track up from that classic southerly trajectory check the 12z or 00z WRF 4km Sounding before the expected event, and if we see a similar wind profile we will likely see similar results. If we have a tighter PDX-EUG/PDX-MFR then prepare for a major event. It is rare to have the winds aloft to the surface aligned as such. I believe only 1 or 2 wind storms have featured this. One was the Columbus Day Storm. I am not sure if the great November 1981 wind storm did as well.

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS is running....

 

NCEP GFS http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=area

Parallel GFS http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121400/

[Deweydog]

How bout that Marcus Mariota.

Add him to the list of Heisman winning quarterbacks that won't make a big splash in the NFL.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Add him to the list of Heisman winning quarterbacks that won't make a big splash in the NFL.

 

Sadly he'll probably go to a terrible team with an awful roster. That was part of the beauty of Russell Wilson, he went to a team that was primed for takeoff. 

 

Lets not forget who R. Wilson lost his final collegiate game too. The Darron Thomas led Oregon Ducks.

[Deweydog]

Sadly he'll probably go to a terrible team with an awful roster. That was part of the beauty of Russell Wilson, he went to a team that was primed for takeoff.

 

Lets not forget who R. Wilson lost his final collegiate game too. The Darron Thomas led Oregon Ducks.

Can't all be Cam Newton, you know...

[Deweydog]

The last Pac 10 player to win it was Reggie Bush in 2005. Analog?

[TT-SEA]

Perfect night in for Snowflake Lane in Bellevue...

 

[Deweydog]

Perfect night in for Snowflake Lane in Bellevue...

 

Strange looking protest.

[Tyler Mode]

Still foggy here, but offshore flow is starting.  Hopefully it will clear out and it can actually get cool tonight!

 

I haven't had a freezing temp since the 2nd.

[TT-SEA]

Strange looking protest.

 

 

Worse yet... they pour fake snow from the building rooftops towards the end.    Can't have the real stuff?   What is this... San Diego??

[Deweydog]

Worse yet... they pour fake snow from the building rooftops towards the end. Can't have the real stuff? What is this... San Diego??

Obviously they know nothing of the Madden-Julian Oscillation.

[chinook]

You stay classy, Tim.

[TT-SEA]

It was snowing pretty good for awhile... seemed to be real localized because it did not show up on the radar.     Perfect timing though with the parade and all. 

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

In other news... 00z GFS     still showing promise. 

[snow_wizard]

The parallel GFS shows a low tracking inland around the mouth of the Columbia on Christmas Eve with pretty chilly air over WA.  At the same time the surface pressure configuration over the NE Pacific looks poised for something big after day 10.  Even the operational gets pretty nippy.

[snow_wizard]

Still foggy here, but offshore flow is starting.  Hopefully it will clear out and it can actually get cool tonight!

 

I haven't had a freezing temp since the 2nd.

 

It looks like it will finally freeze here without a major cold pattern in place.  It's a miracle!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The grass is crunchy with frost here...

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF solution would certainly yield a chilly Christmas as a fairly cold shortwave digs down the BC Coast.

[TT-SEA]

The ECMWF solution would certainly yield a chilly Christmas as a fairly cold shortwave digs down the BC Coast.

 

 

Chilly rain.

[HighlandExperience]

Chilly rain.

 

At this point that is what we need. I don't want to spend the entire winter stuck between ridging directly over head and split flow with warm crappy rain. 

[stuffradio]

It's 36 at my house.

[Deweydog]

You haven't lived until you've seen South Park's Woodland Critter Christmas.

 

Lots of snow on the ground throughout the episode...

[Brennan]

LOLLING AT DEWEYDOG’S POSTS TONIGHT!!!! HAHAHAHAHAHAHHHAHHAHHHAHHHAHAHAHAHHAH... 

 

In local weather and climate... I am leaving for Vegas December 26-29th, the same days that the 1996 storm happened. I told myself I’d never leave during the heart of winter, and I am... expect greatness! If we were on the heals of a 3 foot snowstorm however, I would swallow my plane ticket and hunker down. 

[MossMan]

30 degrees and lots of frost this morning!

[westcoastexpat]

LOLLING AT DEWEYDOG’S POSTS TONIGHT!!!! HAHAHAHAHAHAHHHAHHAHHHAHHHAHAHAHAHHAH... 

 

In local weather and climate... I am leaving for Vegas December 26-29th, the same days that the 1996 storm happened. I told myself I’d never leave during the heart of winter, and I am... expect greatness! If we were on the heals of a 3 foot snowstorm however, I would swallow my plane ticket and hunker down. 

 

That would make a bust forecast so much more painful.

[luvssnow_spokane]

27 and frosty...

[stuffradio]

No one cares about the 6Z long range?

[GHweatherChris]

No one cares about the 6Z long range?

Nope.

[stuffradio]

Nope.

It's nice and chilly though.

[GHweatherChris]

It's nice and chilly though

6z and long range don't jive well.

[westiztehbest]

The 06z is cold and snowy from xmas thru the weekend for the mtns and basin. That verifies...driving to and back from Victoria is gonna be fun.

 

CFS is back to cold once again (what a surprise):

 

 

 

 

 

[stuffradio]

Dun dun... dun dun... dun dun dun dun dun dun dun dun dun dun dun

https://twitter.com/wsi_energy/status/544154914847731712

[antipex]

No frost here, but a beautiful sunny morning with clear air!

[antipex]

06Z operational shows chilly weather still around the 24th and beyond. Ensembles seem to be trending cooler...

 

[MossMan]

How is the 12z looking?