December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

Power just came on at 5:10am, lost it last night at around 8:30ish. Longest non snow outage since Dec 1995! This storm does trump Dec 2006 for my area, it was insane last night and did remind me more of Dec 1995. Will be interesting to see my yard when the sun comes up.

[TT-SEA]

Power just came on at 5:10am, lost it last night at around 8:30ish. Longest non snow outage since Dec 1995! This storm does trump Dec 2006 for my area, it was insane last night and did remind me more of Dec 1995. Will be interesting to see my yard when the sun comes up.

 

 

Nothing like December of 2006 out here... that was much worse.  

 

I did not even lose power in this storm... we were out for 10 days in December of 2006.

 

Although I guess there are some similarities with the strength of the storm down south and the timing of the 2006 event.

 

Glad we got that out the way now without any effect here!

[TT-SEA]

The December 2006 windstorm took a totally different path... and that is why it was much worse for my location than the storm yesterday. 

 

http://www.climate.washington.edu/stormking/Dec2006StormTrack.jpg

 

 

The current storm came up from the south and continued northward into Vancouver Island.    The strongest storms at my location are typically when the low comes inland near Bellingham and continues eastward.   My location is not exposed to the strongest gradients with a path like the storm yesterday took.

[Prairiedog]

Watching the GFS pick up on this storm and never really flinching while the other models played catch up was actually the most interesting part of this event for me.  I wonder what made this event such a lock for the GFS?  The data was there and it held up.  I still see the GFS as lagging behind the EC but what made it hold up here, I don't know.  In previous wind events has the GFS performed as well?  I don't remember what happened in Oct.

The other thing that was quite interesting was how the valley here (and parts of E. Or) had wind gusts very comparable for the most part with the coast.  The coast forecast was pretty much a bust as schools in some locations closed.  Coastal schools rarely close for wind events. 

Typically after AR or wind events we can start to look for a reload of cold air to the north. 

The snow situation in the mountains is awful and I don't see anything to alleviate that in the next couple weeks.  Not going to be a good Christmas for the mountain ski resorts. 

[Snowman5678]

Got pretty windy here with gusts between 55-65 mph at times. About on par with October 26th storm speed wise although more trees came down in that one because some of the trees still had leaves on them. Not even close to Hannukah Eve though. 

[The Swamp]

Phil, are we still on track to get crushed by the PV in the first part of January?

[stuffradio]

My power is still out. Pretty run of the mill windstorm though. Only took a bunch of trees out causing power outages to 70000-100000 people.

[stuffradio]

I lost power for a few hours, right in the middle of hiding someone's posts.

That's karma for you.

[Guest Winterdog]

Was there a storm last night?  The only real evidence I have when looking outside is an unused styrofoam faucet cover that was blown out in front of the house.  The power did flicker and momentarily went out a few times but that was it.  This was the kind of windstorm I like.

[MossMan]

Well other than assessing how damaged my BBQ, it looks like my yard stayed intact for the most part. It's nice that my large evergreens are all on the north side of my property so the woods took the mess and not my yard. Will be interesting to drive around today. Going up to the lake house to see how bad it is, it's usually a huge mess.

[MossMan]

Was there a storm last night?  The only real evidence I have when looking outside is an unused styrofoam faucet cover that was blown out in front of the house.  The power did flicker and momentarily went out a few times but that was it.  This was the kind of windstorm I like.

Was 2006 worse for you like it was for Jim and Tim? I still say forecasting wind events around here is just as tough or tougher than forecasting snow. So variable! I know many on here did not believe this was going to be anything to write home about, but looking at where the storm was tracking and how deep it was, I was pretty confident we were going to get nailed in my area.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 day Euro hints at ridge retrograde.

It's a start!

[Skagit Weather]

2006 had wind gusts almost 40 mph faster up here so it was definitely stronger. 87 at Padilla Bay in 2006 while 50 mph last night. Power blinked a couple times, but in my protected location highest gust was 35. Not really any damage that I saw up here.

[Guest Winterdog]

MossMan, on 12 Dec 2014 - 09:22 AM, said:

Was 2006 worse for you like it was for Jim and Tim? I still say forecasting wind events around here is just as tough or tougher than forecasting snow. So variable! I know many on here did not believe this was going to be anything to write home about, but looking at where the storm was tracking and how deep it was, I was pretty confident we were going to get nailed in my area.

Yes 2006 was worse and our power was out a long time on that one.  We still didn't get much real wind at our house but there was a lot of downed trees in the area.  A SE wind gets us pretty good but we are sheltered from a direct east wind.  We were nearly dead calm throughout that November east wind event. 

[seattleweatherguy]

That could have been right on a hill or somewhere more exposed to wind.  This has been a weird event for the east Puget Sound lowlands though.  Some places barely got windy at all.

 

 

Probably. Did not get as much wind as most people though my lights flickered a few times.

[luvssnow_spokane]

10 day Euro hints at ridge retrograde.

Some of the GFS runs have been alluding to things getting colder also. The normal pattern is for things to get pushed back for a while in the models but it is very promising to see it show up. 

[MossMan]

10 day Euro hints at ridge retrograde.

Sounds promising!

[Abbotsford_wx]

My peak gust last night was 35 mph, though areas west of me had gusts near 50 mph. My power didn't even flicker.

 

2006 was a different beast. I had a gust to 78 mph with the Hanukkah Eve storm. That was after multiple 50-60 mph storms in the preceding month.

[Abbotsford_wx]

2006 had wind gusts almost 40 mph faster up here so it was definitely stronger. 87 at Padilla Bay in 2006 while 50 mph last night. Power blinked a couple times, but in my protected location highest gust was 35. Not really any damage that I saw up here.

 

Same here. Your area must be very similar to mine when it comes to wind storms.

[seattleweatherguy]

I look at gfs metrostar website and they will be charging a fee to use it lame.

[Deweydog]

19 years ago right now it was quite windy outside.  

[Rustysprocket]

That's called weather forecasting. 

Exactly my point.

[stuffradio]

I look at gfs metrostar website and they will be charging a fee to use it lame.

I noticed that a few days ago. It's a good thing I pay for a site anyways.

[Phil]

Phil, are we still on track to get crushed by the PV in the first part of January?

I'n thinking early and/or mid January? Next round of breakers should plunge the EPO around New Years and split the PV shortly afterward..looks kind of like a reincarnation of November.

 

Same catalysts that force the SSW will drop the EPO..strat feedbacks later will depend on the tropical response..good news is that the Arctic will return to the US either way..

[PacNW44]

10 day Euro hints at ridge retrograde.

 

Last couple EPS control runs (op past D10) consolidate Pac and Aleutian ridging and drive a cold trough right down the coast for Christmas time. 

[MossMan]

19 years ago right now it was quite windy outside.

 

And we had a nice arctic outbreak a month later!

[Deweydog]

And we had a nice arctic outbreak a month later!

More like seven weeks or so. If we're sitting seven weeks from now without renewed Arctic pleasures, Jim will be on suicide watch.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

More like seven weeks or so. If we're sitting seven weeks from now without renewed Arctic pleasures, Jim will be on suicide watch.

 

Wasn't that a Nina year? Mid-January through the end of February were highly eventful. Tons of foothills snow toward the end of February too. 

[Deweydog]

Wasn't that a Nina year? Mid-January through the end of February were highly eventful. Tons of foothills snow toward the end of February too.

I think it was borderline. After the very active first half of December, things shut down until mid January when the mountains got pummeled. Then it snowed, we had another windstorm-ish, then it snowed and colded and ice stormed and flooded.

[MossMan]

More like seven weeks or so. If we're sitting seven weeks from now without renewed Arctic pleasures, Jim will be on suicide watch.

More like seven weeks or so. If we're sitting seven weeks from now without renewed Arctic pleasures, Jim will be on suicide watch.

Yeah I rounded up, didn't want to freak anyone out!

Or was I rounding down...I didn't sleep last night, forgive me.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I think it was borderline. After the very active first half of December, things shut down until mid January when the mountains got pummeled. Then it snowed, we had another windstorm-ish, then it snowed and colded and ice stormed and flooded.

Then spring came and all the Gods creatures started to make babies... It was epic!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS wants to return winter to the east.

[Bryant]

GFS wants to return winter to the east.

Like it should... Been expected for quite a while now

[Phil]

New ECMWF monthlies

[Phil]

Super-block stretching from the GOA to the NAO domain..sprawling over the entire Arctic domain as well, from Eurasia to Northern Canada. Aleutian low is there but well west of the GOA..coast-to-coast ice-box in January, with 80% of the nation still in the freezer in Feb/Mar. Not sure if I agree with the latter, but it's an impressive run nonetheless..

[GHweatherChris]

Super-block stretching from the GOA to the NAO domain..sprawling over the entire Arctic domain as well, from Eurasia to Northern Canada. Aleutian low is there but well west of the GOA..coast-to-coast ice-box in January, with 80% of the nation still in the freezer in Feb/Mar. Not sure if I agree with the latter, but it's an impressive run nonetheless..

Wow, I am gonna get excited about something but not show you guys, yippee!!

[Phil]

Wow, I am gonna get excited about something but not show you guys, yippee!!

Paywalled, dude. I'm not allowed to post their graphics, but I can put a Brett Anderson map together if you'd like?

[MossMan]

New ECMWF monthlies

It's the "O" face!! Can only mean good things!

[Tyler Mode]

Updated with new photos from around Vancouver today...

http://weathercrazy.smugmug.com/Weather/121114-Wind-Damagehttp://weathercrazy.smugmug.com/Weather/121114-Wind-Damage/i-ZRRcg8V/0/L/70.%20G%20Tree%20Down%20on%20Multiple%20Cars%20NE%2028th%20Ave%20and%20NE%2049th%20Street%20Truck%20and%20Home-L.jpg

[luvssnow_spokane]

Updated with new photos from around Vancouver today...

 

http://weathercrazy.smugmug.com/Weather/121114-Wind-Damagehttp://weathercrazy.smugmug.com/Weather/121114-Wind-Damage/i-ZRRcg8V/0/L/70.%20G%20Tree%20Down%20on%20Multiple%20Cars%20NE%2028th%20Ave%20and%20NE%2049th%20Street%20Truck%20and%20Home-L.jpg

Looks repairable... Doh!