December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[jaya]

The GFS based MJO forecasts have been a train wreck lately. It will be pretty hard pressed to nail the block placement if it's way off on the forcing that is causing it.

Agreed!

[snow_wizard]

Certainly!  Block, arctic outflow, southern stream energy undercutting...  could be fun. Since this is high res and upper pattern is in the sweet spot, could be fun.

 

Isn't it interesting though that the fun is always at 240?  Life at 240 would be sweet!

Indeed!

 

You have to love how far west and south the PV center is at day 10. Pretty hard for the PNW to not get nailed if that verifies.

[Phil]

Don't know. I did not look at how the various models handled things over Asia or the West Pacific (low development, etc.) A single model bias won't explain all of the variance. Like, ENSO explains 60 percent of the variance in the Northern Hemisphere winter circulation. That leaves 40 percent to other factors (explains Jan 1969).

When you reference ENSO's effect(s), are you talking on a seasonal-scale resolution, or are you speaking of tropical forcing in general? I've read some studies that attribute 30-40% of the variation in seasonal seasonal circulations to solar activity and QBO progression, with these factors increasing in importance with weak/neutral ENSO.

[HighlandExperience]

In the short term.

 

The good news is that the snow level will not be as high tomorrow in WA/BC as originally thought a few days ago. That is good news for ski resorts Stevens Pass northward. 

[jaya]

When you reference ENSO's effect(s), are you talking on a seasonal-scale resolution, or are you speaking of tropical forcing in general? I've read some studies that attribute 30-40% of the variation in seasonal seasonal circulations to solar activity and QBO progression, with these factors increasing in importance with weak/neutral ENSO.

By broad statement may be 10 yrs or so old - and yes, seasonal. But that wasn't my point (I may not have used a good analogy).  I was trying to say that simple biases can explain a good deal of the variance, but not everything is known.  Sorry for the confusion.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF has begun..... I hope it's decent, but I fear this won't be good at all due to crummy Ensemble support....

 

 

 

Oh, and 00z GEM HR 180 500mb holds some promise. Main body of block is further south and not yet cut-off

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014122100/gem_z500_vort_namer_31.png

[Deweydog]

Just another ho-hum December night with temps approaching 60 degrees. Hopefully that shoe is getting heavy.

[Deweydog]

All the Vancouver people say hey-ey!

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF HR 48

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014122100/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_3.png

[Jesse]

Just another ho-hum December night with temps approaching 60 degrees. Hopefully that shoe is getting heavy.

Felt really warm out getting into Tigard this evening.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM bit cold after day 8-9

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014122100/gem_T2m_nwus_40.png

[Deweydog]

Felt really warm out getting into Tigard this evening.

His name is Tigard???

 

Hahahahahahahahahahhahahafunny.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF HR 72

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014122100/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_4.png

[Jesse]

His name is Tigard???

 

Hahahahahahahahahahhahahafunny.

I don't get it.

[snow_wizard]

00z ECMWF has begun..... I hope it's decent, but I fear this won't be good at all due to crummy Ensemble support....

 

 

 

Oh, and 00z GEM HR 180 500mb holds some promise. Main body of block is further south and not yet cut-off

 

 

Very nice!

 

The parallel GFS and GEM both have the ridge axis further west than the GFS. Also...the Euro ensemble has been shockingly erratic lately.

[Snow]

[jaya]

GEM would show a full scale arctic outbreak with snow in the Pac NW.

[Snow]

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF HR 96

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014122100/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_5.png

[Gradient Keeper]

GEM would show a full scale arctic outbreak with snow in the Pac NW.

Yep

[snow_wizard]

00z GEM bit cold after day 8-9

 

Let's hope we can build on this. That makes two good looking models so far tonight.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 120

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014122100/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_6.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Let's hope we can build on this. That makes two good looking models so far tonight.

The fun part is, once that block on the GEM asserts itself after day 6, the rest follows..... waiting game at that point...

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 144

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014122100/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_7.png

[wx_statman]

Just another ho-hum December night with temps approaching 60 degrees. Hopefully that shoe is getting heavy.

3rd time we're doing this in the last ~25 days. Getting pretty routine at this point.

[Prairiedog]

if know one understands what you post. why post

Don't expect everyone to dumb everything down for you  Most people on here are self taught.  Not all, but many.  Start looking things up.  Start doing some digging and teach yourself.   Ask some  intelligent questions instead of expecting.   But being a smartass towards others that are good contributors on this board, really makes yourself look entitled and lazy. 

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 168 is odd and nothing we've seen on previous runs...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014122100/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_8.png

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF through HR 168 shows us that after day 5-6 we still have major model disagreement on how to handle things. That means in my opinion we're no closer with 00z runs tonight on knowing how this plays out. Too much volatility with this large scale pattern change.

[Deweydog]

HR 168 is odd and nothing we've seen on previous runs...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014122100/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_8.png

A nino-ish look during a nino is odd?

[Guest Winterdog]

The Euro took a dump on us tonight.

[Gradient Keeper]

A nino-ish look during a nino is odd?

No, the small cut-off low hugging eastern periphery of the offshore ridge was odd.

[snow_wizard]

The GEM is absolutely gorgeous tonight. Pretty hard to ignore an extremely cold 12z GFS and an extremely cold 0z GEM. No doubt the chance is there.

[Deweydog]

No, the small cut-off low hugging eastern periphery of the offshore ridge was odd.

We all know the Euro loves its cut off lows.

[BLI snowman]

The GEM is absolutely gorgeous tonight. Pretty hard to ignore an extremely cold 12z GFS and an extremely cold 0z GEM. No doubt the chance is there.

 

Pretty minor right now as far as model waves go. Overall trend has to be discouraging if you want to see anything these next two weeks. 00z Euro and GFS are in pretty good agreement, as are the ensembles.

[Snow]

[snow_wizard]

The lack of amplification on the ECMWF is a real puzzle. The other models and the GFS ensemble show the amplification as a given with placement of the block being the main point of disagreement.

[BLI snowman]

Canadian has been woeful recently and often seems about 24 hours behind the other model trends. Just FWIW. 

[TT-SEA]

This is just so far from good...

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014122100!!chart.gif

[luvssnow_spokane]

The lack of amplification on the ECMWF is a real puzzle. The other models and the GFS ensemble show the amplification as a given with placement of the block being the main point of disagreement.

Honestly that is always the place of disagreement year after year. I do not see this being all that puzzling.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Canadian has been woeful recently and often seems about 24 hours behind the other model trends. Just FWIW.

this is so true... Be interesting too see it go to crap in the next 24 to 36 hours.