December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[antipex]

GFS compared to ECMWF at HR 192.... Shows exactly what we need... Kamchatka low/main energy further west and weaker.

 

I would put money on the GFS flipping back again and showing no arctic air on the 18z. It's in lala land...

[The Swamp]

Updating slowed down....

 

HR 192 ridge moving east

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014122012/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_9.png

That doesn't look good to me. Everything looks like it's going East. How does it look at 364hrs?

[Deweydog]

I hope I'm no the only one who picked up on that irony.

 

Punctuation is either missing from this site, or overly used.

 

I'm on the overly used side of things!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

I've always wondered why you're the only one who quotes posts and then types above them?  

 

Weird, wacky stuff on a rainy Saturday morning...

 

How are the ensembles looking.

[snow_wizard]

I would put money on the GFS flipping back again and showing no arctic air on the 18z. It's in lala land...

Not really la la land. The wheels are already in motion by day 8 or so.

 

That having been said we obviously won't know anything firmly for a while yet.

[Bryant]

That doesn't look good to me. Everything looks like it's going East. How does it look at 364hrs?

You say that like it matters...?

[Deweydog]

Not really la la land. The wheels are already in motion by day 8 or so.

 

That having been said we obviously won't know anything firmly for a while yet.

 

The wheels have been in motion for a very long time.  

[snow_wizard]

Obviously the big thing lacking on the ECMWF compared to the GFS is the powerful Arctic surface high dropping down through Western Canada. Those things are so "heavy" they can actually force the blocking westward as it moves down.

[snow_wizard]

The wheels have been in motion for a very long time.

I guess I should have said the 12z GFS was already to the point of no return by day 8.

[snow_wizard]

You say that like it matters...?

I think the only thing we can say for sure is the tropical forcing will be totally in our court going into the new year. It would be a really bad break if we don't score.

[GHweatherChris]

Not really la la land. The wheels are already in motion by day 8 or so.

 

That having been said we obviously won't know anything firmly for a while yet.

Today's weather is already affecting the weather 10 days from now.

[snow_wizard]

Looking at the 12z GFS again it was actually very good even as early as day 7. I hope we will see some better model to model consistency in the next day or two.

[Snow]

[Bryant]

I think the only thing we can say for sure is the tropical forcing will be totally in our court going into the new year. It would be a really bad break if we don't score.

Yup. Hopefully it can override the overall signal this year of sending most the cold air east of the Rockies.

[snow_wizard]

Yup. Hopefully it can override the overall signal this year of sending most the cold air east of the Rockies.

We actually did pretty good with the late Nov / early Dec cold snap in that regard. In reality the tropical atmosphere will be Ninaish before New Years, so an eastern trough actually is not favored when looking at that.

[Bryant]

We actually did pretty good with the late Nov / early Dec cold snap in that regard. In reality the tropical atmosphere will be Ninaish before New Years, so an eastern trough actually is not favored when looking at that.

 

Agreed. Atmosphere and tropical forcing will be in a Nina state for our window of opportunity. This pattern definitely resembles the Nov time frame

[ShawniganLake]

Agreed. Atmosphere and tropical forcing will be in a Nina state for our window of opportunity. This pattern definitely resembles the Nov time frame

You still in Phil's court for his early January call?

[Snow]

[jaya]

It does appear that the 12z GFS operational was an outlier though.  http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

[epiceast]

I just saw the new 12z GFS and it's a SCORE!!!!! An Arctic blast invades the PNW before New Years! ❄

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122012/gfs_T850_nwus_38.png

This is really cold for me.

[MossMan]

It does appear that the 12z GFS operational was an outlier though. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

Ouch

[snow_wizard]

It does appear that the 12z GFS operational was an outlier though.  http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

Not surprising, but there were two other members just as cold at the exact same time.

[snow_wizard]

Ouch

Eh...I think our chances are still good of scoring during this window. It's also worth noting a number of members looked good at the 500mb level.

[Snow]

Obviously the big thing lacking on the ECMWF compared to the GFS is the powerful Arctic surface high dropping down through Western Canada. Those things are so "heavy" they can actually force the blocking westward as it moves down.

Superb analysis. The new 12z JMA shows a strong upper level high in Alaska at hour 192. It was the first model to see our 2nd cold event this winter. The Arctic air is going to be forced down to the PNW. There is no way it moves east.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2014122012/jma_z500a_namer_9.png

[GHweatherChris]

It does appear that the 12z GFS operational was an outlier though.  http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

Could be some lumpy rain on higher hills just after Christmas, pretty D**n good consistency with that, yippee.

[Bryant]

You still in Phil's court for his early January call?

As far as potential cold, the upcoming time frame is the best yet. Once tropical forcing shifts into the west Pacific after the first 7-10 days of January, our window is over IMO. Not good with SSW events, so not sure of potential implications

[snow_wizard]

Could be some lumpy rain on higher hills just after Christmas, pretty D**n good consistency with that, yippee.

Obviously we can't put a lot of stock in anything right now. No reason for despair or giddiness right now.

[GHweatherChris]

Obviously we can't put a lot of stock in anything right now. No reason for despair or giddiness right now.

Umm, I am not really worried about it, there is way too much model inconsistency to have either hope or not at this point.  We thought we were on a good trend just 4 days ago, that changed fast.  January or bust IMO.

[snow_wizard]

Umm, I am not really worried about it, there is way too much model inconsistency to have either hope or not at this point.  We thought we were on a good trend just 4 days ago, that changed fast.  January or bust IMO.

We just had a very cold GFS run. Nothing has really changed. Models are alternating between good and bad.

[GHweatherChris]

We just had a very cold GFS run. Nothing has really changed. Models are alternating between good and bad.

Ok Jim, you don't have to convince me of anything.

 

One run is not a trend BTW.

 

I am just glad potential is showing up.

[Front Ranger]

One good thing about the 12z Euro I noticed: more cold air finally shifts to the North American side of the globe. For the past month, the really cold air has been camping out in Siberia, but it looks like it finally might shift to the Arctic and then quickly over to North America.

 

Someone's gonna get cold by New Years.

[Snow]

This is really cold for me.

Yeah your area is going to be brutally cold if the 12z GFS verifies.

[epiceast]

Yeah your area is going to be brutally cold if the 12z GFS verifies.

Yeah I'd prefer that wouldn't verify rather get some snow.

[Jesse]

Yeah I'd prefer that wouldn't verify rather get some snow.

Only 5 days left to write Santa a letter!

[Farmboy]

One good thing about the 12z Euro I noticed: more cold air finally shifts to the North American side of the globe. For the past month, the really cold air has been camping out in Siberia, but it looks like it finally might shift to the Arctic and then quickly over to North America.

 

Someone's gonna get cold by New Years.

Cleveland, OH should be a lock....

[Snow]

Yeah I'd prefer that wouldn't verify rather get some snow.

Same here, I just want cold enough and tons of moisture with offshore flow.

[epiceast]

Only 5 days left to write Santa a letter!

Dear Santa,

 

All I want for Christmas is temperatures above 0f on New Year's eve so that my drunk a** wouldn't freeze to death.

 

 

Sincerely,

 

Still a believer

 

PS:  a bit of snow would help too

[snow_wizard]

Ok Jim, you don't have to convince me of anything.

 

One run is not a trend BTW.

 

I am just glad potential is showing up.

Did I say it was a trend? Sheesh.

[Front Ranger]

Here's a new post from 50shadesofvan (I think he has an account here). He works for The Weather Network. This post is only dealing with BC, so don't read it if you expect WA content. http://50shadesofvan.com/blog/2014/12/20/storm-update-peak-after-christmas-and-beyond

 

This was the best part. 

 

Puking: Heavy thick snowfall that accumulates to form good powder snow and freshies for skiing. 

 

I've heard the term "puking" snow before, but never "freshies". Ah, Canucks.

[BLI snowman]

Considering the historically low snowfall totals in the region thus far, I feel good about our chances. GEG won't stay at 1.1" for very long. Snow will come.

[wx_statman]

Hard to post and drive

 

Its not so hard. I know you're trying not to kill people, but punctuation is also important.