December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Poulsbo Snowman]

I like the progession through hour 216, 3 straight GFS runs now that are good through that time period. The longer out, the more unreliable models become.

 

I want the goodies as much as you do, but I don't think we're going to get there.  Two consecutive Euro runs say no--and there is mounds of evidence elsewhere which suggest the same.

 

But keep up your optimism!  I sure like it!

 

You remind me of Windy on the old forums.

[Snow]

That seems like good science.

Whenever you have cold air that close, there's lots of potential especially with that nice H pressure situated in southern BC.

[Snow]

Yeah... there's not much historical precedent for cold air going east.

 

I'm driving.

During the first cold event in November the models were never this cold and got even colder as the event approached.

[MossMan]

I want the goodies as much as you do, but I don't think we're going to get there. Two consecutive Euro runs say no--and there is mounds of evidence elsewhere which suggest the same.

 

But keep up your optimism! I sure like it!

 

You remind me of Windy on the old forums.

This is also what people were saying a week out from the Jan 2012 event, a lot will change in the next few days.

[HighlandExperience]

This is also what people were saying a week out from the Jan 2012 event, a lot will change in the next few days.

 

January 2012 was awesome for the Seattle area. 

[Snow]

I want the goodies as much as you do, but I don't think we're going to get there. Two consecutive Euro runs say no--and there is mounds of evidence elsewhere which suggest the same.

 

But keep up your optimism! I sure like it!

 

You remind me of Windy on the old forums.

Thanks for the compliment. I respect your opinion but I feel this time around the EURO will trend towards the GFS.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Thanks for the compliment. I respect your opinion but I feel this time around the EURO will trend towards the GFS.

 

It could work out that way.  After all, the GFS outperformed the Euro during last week's windstorm.  One thing for sure; one of them is out to lunch.

[Snow]

It could work out that way. After all, the GFS outperformed the Euro during last week's windstorm. One thing for sure; one of them is out to lunch.

Yeah, I think eventually by the 00z runs tomorrow night we will have a clearer picture.

[wx_statman]

Your mom does.

 

She doesn't. And that's not the only thing she lied to you about.

[Deweydog]

Yeah, I think eventually by the 00z runs tomorrow night we will have a clearer picture.

Mmmm... no, not really.

[van city]

18z GFS Parallel is available now. Any comments on it?

[ShawniganLake]

18z GFS Parallel is available now. Any comments on it?

It pretty much continued the "close but not quite" theme.

[Guest Winterdog]

This looks pretty close alright. Good looking run at the 500mb level.

[bainbridgekid]

18z GFS Parallel is available now. Any comments on it?

Way more cold air in BC on the Parallel but the block gets undercut which keeps the cold air from driving South. 

 

Still lots of potential in the 9-15 day frame IMO but we won't know for quite a while how it will shake out. So many complex features at play.

[stuffradio]

The parallel has a low of 18 at hour 240 for me.

[Deweydog]

The rain today was pretty well-modeled.  

[ShawniganLake]

CFSv2 500mb height anomalies for January.  From Weatherbell.

[Deweydog]

CFSv2 500mb height anomalies for January.  From Weatherbell.

cfsv2-jan.png

 

On target.  

[Farmboy]

The rain today was pretty well-modeled.  

That does not help our chances for arctic air, though....

[Deweydog]

That does not help our chances for arctic air, though....

 

According to some it does.  Every Arctic outbreak which has affected the Pacific Northwest has occurred after it has rained.  

[Gradient Keeper]

According to some it does.  Every Arctic outbreak which has affected the Pacific Northwest has occurred after it has rained.  

or sprinkled, maybe even a solid 20dBz mist?

 

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In my opinion, my humble opinion, my humble amateur opinion, my humble amateur take a wild guess opinion, my humble amateur take a wild guess pin the tail on the weather donkey opinion, we won't know either way and have things nailed down with much better model agreement/continuity until 00z Monday, 12z Tuesday. That big Kamchatka/Bering Sea low is not forecast to develop until I believe 6-12z Tuesday. That is one of the main players.

 

[Model Countdown]

Next up....

00z GFS 3 hours 3 minutes

00z GEM 4 hours 35 minutes

00z ECMWF 5 hours 31 minutes

[Deweydog]

or sprinkled, maybe even a solid 20dBz mist?

 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

In my opinion, my humble opinion, my humble amateur opinion, my humble amateur take a wild guess opinion, my humble amateur take a wild guess pin the tail on the weather donkey opinion, we won't know either way and have things nailed down with much better model agreement/continuity until 00z Monday, 12z Tuesday. That big Kamchatka/Bering Sea low is not forecast to develop until I believe 6-12z Tuesday. That is one of the main players.

 

[Model Countdown]

Next up....

00z GFS 3 hours 3 minutes

00z GEM 4 hours 35 minutes

00z ECMWF 5 hours 31 minutes

 

One thing is for certain.  Arm flapping and fever dreams will continue indefinitely until +PNA madness takes over.  

[Gradient Keeper]

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow. Off-topic, but.....

LMFAO Redskins beat the Eagles? ... You have to be completely pooping me, like an outhouse full of poop tipped upside down kind of surprise while you're half way going, then you hear a bear.... Unbelievable.

[Snow]

[Snow]

Wow. Off-topic, but.....

LMFAO Redskins beat the Eagles? ... You have to be completely pooping me, like an outhouse full of poop tipped upside down kind of surprise while you're half way going, then you hear a bear.... Unbelievable.

Bad loss for the Eagles. I hope Chip Kelly is able to trade up and get Mariota.

[Snow]

Mmmm... no, not really.

I said clearer picture not a clear picture, it will still be foggy.

[MossMan]

I officially got in trouble for being on my phone this morning while my wife was telling me a story that happened to her at work yesterday. I was nodding and pretending to listen but that wasn't good enough. This was right when the 12z GFS was coming out...I think my wife really hates the Nov through March timeframe

[antipex]

I officially got in trouble for being on my phone this morning while my wife was telling me a story that happened to her at work yesterday. I was nodding and pretending to listen but that wasn't good enough. This was right when the 12z GFS was coming out...I think my wife really hates the Nov through March timeframe

 

I was scouring WeatherBell yesterday during a meeting at work. I can't help it!

[Deweydog]

I said clearer picture not a clear picture, it will still be foggy.

Rudolph can help with that!

 

Not Jesus, though.

[MossMan]

I was scouring WeatherBell yesterday during a meeting at work. I can't help it!

We have a problem, an addiction...but I wouldn't want it any other way!! I could not imagine being one of those people that could not care less about weather, I find them the odd ones, haha!

[Poulsbo Snowman]

I officially got in trouble for being on my phone this morning while my wife was telling me a story that happened to her at work yesterday. I was nodding and pretending to listen but that wasn't good enough. This was right when the 12z GFS was coming out...I think my wife really hates the Nov through March timeframe

 

Common problem amongst middle-aged weather-loving men--particularly those who are married.

 

And I bet she always asks when it's going to snow again, doesn't she? 

[Phil]

I think most of us know that we are at a disadavantage from the start winter wise with +PDO/+ENSO/Solar. Like 2009/2010, snow was hard to come by here...even though we had a couple cold shots earlier that winter season. Im still interested to see where things go this winter but am not surprised at how things have gone thus far. My question is what may happen next year? Will solar drop off? Will the North Pacific remain warm near NA? Will ENSO fall back to neutral?

The +PDO should continue through most, if not all, of 2015. ENSO should return to La Niña territory in 2016..barring a major volcanic eruption or Solar surge. When in 2016 is the question..

[Phil]

We actually did pretty good with the late Nov / early Dec cold snap in that regard. In reality the tropical atmosphere will be Ninaish before New Years, so an eastern trough actually is not favored when looking at that.

An trough over the Midwest/Lakes is favored, and will occur. The question is how much Arctic air will make it west of the Cascades..that'll depend on how the entire wave-breaking situation unfolds..

[MossMan]

Common problem amongst middle-aged weather-loving men--particularly those who are married.

 

And I bet she always asks when it's going to snow again, doesn't she?

 

Yes she does!! It was funny the end of Nov cold spell I told my wife it was going to snow (this was that Friday night) she told me not a chance, too warm and wet. I said just wait...and that Saturday morning at first light I whipped open the drapes and said "told you so" she didn't appreciate that at 7am haha!

[Phil]

You still in Phil's court for his early January call?

That's the best window for a retrogression IMO. It's not a given, though, but looks more likely than not, from my perspective.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Off topic. Was 1943 a nasty winter around the northwest? A customer came in to my shop friday and he was around 90yrs old. He told me he has lived in port orchard since 1940 so of course I had weather question. I asked what was the deepest snow he had seen in town and without hesitation he said there was 4 ft in 1943!. Said power was out for 2 weeks. Wow imagine if that happened today.

[BLI snowman]

Off topic. Was 1943 a nasty winter around the northwest? A customer came in to my shop friday and he was around 90yrs old. He told me he has lived in port orchard since 1940 so of course I had weather question. I asked what was the deepest snow he had seen in town and without hesitation he said there was 4 ft in 1943!. Said power was out for 2 weeks. Wow imagine if that happened today.

 

January 1943 was a pretty cold and snowy month, 4 feet is likely an exaggeration but 2 feet isn't.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Yes she does!! It was funny the end of Nov cold spell I told my wife it was going to snow (this was that Friday night) she told me not a chance, too warm and wet. I said just wait...and that Saturday morning at first light I whipped open the drapes and said "told you so" she didn't appreciate that at 7am haha!

 

It happened to me once during communion.  Was a long, long Sunday. 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Off topic. Was 1943 a nasty winter around the northwest? A customer came in to my shop friday and he was around 90yrs old. He told me he has lived in port orchard since 1940 so of course I had weather question. I asked what was the deepest snow he had seen in town and without hesitation he said there was 4 ft in 1943!. Said power was out for 2 weeks. Wow imagine if that happened today.

 

You know, in today's world, I think the internet being out for 2 weeks would be worse for some than losing the power.