December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[jaya]

Would November 1996 and also November 2006 be a good example of what you are describing? In both instances I did extremely well in the snow department and I don't think the airmass was bitter cold, just cold enough for a lot of fun!!

Yes! 

[TT-SEA]

Next 3 weeks are critical... we better get going.

[jaya]

The new 06z GFS has a snow/ice storm from SLE to PDX starting on Dec. 30. For PDX at hour 252 it has -7C 850mb and 925mb temps along with strong east winds raging from the Gorge throughout all levels of the atmosphere with moisture falling as a Low comes up from the SW. Looks like at least 2 inches of snow for PDX, most likely more before turning to ice. From the extracted data during hours 252 to 276, max temp is only 24 degrees.

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KTTD

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KSLE

 

 

By the way, those meteostar temperatures beyond 192 hr are very bad -- don't even bother looking. The GFS uses very low res model forecast after 192 hr. I think this changes once the GFS goes to 13 km.

[GHweatherChris]

Next 3 weeks are critical... we better get going.

I actually agree with you, I feel that if we see nothing significant by Jan. 20th, then we may just have to wait til spring and hope for the yearly post frontal snow showers.

[MossMan]

I actually agree with you, I feel that if we see nothing significant by Jan. 20th, then we may just have to wait til spring and hope for the yearly post frontal snow showers.

You can always count on March!

[westiztehbest]

I think most of us know that we are at a disadavantage from the start winter wise with +PDO/+ENSO/Solar. Like 2009/2010, snow was hard to come by here...even though we had a couple cold shots earlier that winter season. Im still interested to see where things go this winter but am not surprised at how things have gone thus far. My question is what may happen next year? Will solar drop off? Will the North Pacific remain warm near NA? Will ENSO fall back to neutral?

[MossMan]

Looking forward to the 12's this morning!!

 

As for the current weather, 43 degrees with light rain at my house. Looking forward to an active weekend!

[MossMan]

I think most of us know that we are at a disadavantage from the start winter wise with +PDO/+ENSO/Solar. Like 2009/2010, snow was hard to come by here...even though we had a couple cold shots earlier that winter season. Im still interested to see where things go this winter but am not surprised at how things have gone thus far. My question is what may happen next year? Will solar drop off? Will the North Pacific remain warm near NA? Will ENSO fall back to neutral?

It is crazy to think that I have had more snow than your area has had. 2.5"! Has been pretty meager over there.

[TT-SEA]

Looking forward to the 12's this morning!!

As for the current weather, 43 degrees with light rain at my house. Looking forward to an active weekend!

Won't be that active for you... and its just mild rain anyways. What is there to look forward to?

[jaya]

I'm glad the Euro is on the side we want.

 

 

The models overall have improved significantly over the past few years, and that is somewhat due somewhat to the pattern we have seen (Nina ish with lots of blocking). The models also do very well in a +PNA mode here in the NW.  -PNA is much more unpredictable and unstable.  We have a couple things going against us...the potential evolution toward a full Nino pattern and the models wanting to go -PNA but having a hard time figuring out how, when or how long it could hold.

 

Assuming the tropics connect to the northern hemispheric circulation soon given that we are nearly in a Nino, split flow would dominate (already have seen a lot of this) and I'd expect lots of garbage spewed out by all the models.  Many ENSO or near ENSO years are like eternal spring for the northern hemisphere (high wave number and split flow) and models do very poorly in split flow/high wave number patterns beyond just 3-5 days (heck, the rain we had the other day in the split west coast trough was handled poorly right up to 6-12 hours - where the HRRR hit - though most on this forum would find that kind of weather problem boring). Think of Nino as eternal shoulder season for the models where performance suffers for all -- nearly all the time!

 

Of course, the great Jan 1969 was somewhat this type of year - so on rare occasion (maybe once a century?), a near ENSO can be fun. I like to see how our current models would handle such a pattern, but I don't have the computer power to run more than a local WRF 4km for the NW - and it takes me 6 hours to run a single case (and makes my office hot as the computer starts nearly smoking)!  The reanalysis data is also of poor quality once we go back earlier than the early 70s.  I'm not sure I like how the WRF ARW core handles more extreme cases here in W Wa anyway - for example, wind here in the Puget Sound area or snow (I have run some cases and was very disappointed in the results).

 

It is interesting to see the period just after Christmas showing little predictability as seen by the various ensemble plumes http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.pngfor example. This has been the case for the past dozen or so cycles.  We may not know a lot til we break through the wall.

 

As far as cold/snow goes, it will be interesting to watch - but if we get a winter episode here, it would likely sneak up on us.

[jaya]

Won't be that active for you... and its just mild rain anyways. What is there to look forward to?

 

It will be an active weekend with wind on the coast and north interior, heavy rain with the AR event, etc.  Not the cold and snow that interests many people in this forum most of the time - but rather busy for forecasters and people interested in weather in general!

[jaya]

I think most of us know that we are at a disadavantage from the start winter wise with +PDO/+ENSO/Solar. Like 2009/2010, snow was hard to come by here...even though we had a couple cold shots earlier that winter season. Im still interested to see where things go this winter but am not surprised at how things have gone thus far. My question is what may happen next year? Will solar drop off? Will the North Pacific remain warm near NA? Will ENSO fall back to neutral?

In general, if you speak of ENSO and Solar, this should not be a banner year for excitement here in the NW.  But, we have had wind, snow, and flooding - all are less common during ENSO years. So go figure.

[jaya]

I have heard that as well. However 2 straight great GEM runs can't be overlooked.

 

Well, yeah they can unfortunately.  The GEM has had some incredible runs of late.  It has also had some VERY bad ones.  We will see.

[TT-SEA]

It will be an active weekend with wind on the coast and north interior, heavy rain with the AR event, etc.  Not the cold and snow that interests many people in this forum most of the time - but rather busy for forecasters and people interested in weather in general!

But for Randy there will be very little going on... and tomorrow looks pretty dry for the I-5 corridor. Most of the heavy will be in Oregon and fading.

[HighlandExperience]

In general, if you speak of ENSO and Solar, this should not be a banner year for excitement here in the NW.  But, we have had wind, snow, and flooding - all are less common during ENSO years. So go figure.

 

Hope the active weather continues. Nice to see snow dumping in the mountains this morning at the very least.

[FroYoBro]

The models have really toned down the rain amounts for the valley on the last couple of days. Looks like they are forecasting a pretty good rain shadow to happen. Mountains are going to get drenched.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

12z is not to bad.

[MossMan]

I spent some time this morning looking back at the Jan 2012 event and it was pretty evident that the models really struggled with that one, almost up until the event was on us. This was my end result...repeat?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z doesn't look bad.

[stuffradio]

I spent some time this morning looking back at the Jan 2012 event and it was pretty evident that the models really struggled with that one, almost up until the event was on us. This was my end result...repeat?

I had 1-1.5 feet of snow in that event. I was quite pleased.

[Tyler Mode]

I had 1.25" on the 17th.

 

Then very early on the 18th, it was snowing heavily 12am-4am, I measured 5".  However, the temp never got below 32.4.

 

At 4 AM, it switched to rain. 

 

My high ended up being 51 that day!  I think that's important to note.  You may seem some weird snow measurements couple with high temps. 

 

Luckily I keep detailed weather records, but I would surely second guess a high of 51 and 5" of snow.

I had 1-1.5 feet of snow in that event. I was quite pleased.

[GHweatherChris]

12z looks somewhat hopeful for snow, but that is right around the res change.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It sure does feel like we are going to score between xmas and new year.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS shows a full on blizzard for next Sunday.

[stuffradio]

12Z GFS shows a full on blizzard for next Sunday.

From McDonalds?

[GHweatherChris]

12Z GFS shows a full on blizzard for next Sunday.

I wouldn't go that far.  I suppose maybe for you.

[TT-SEA]

I wouldn't go that far.  I suppose maybe for you.

 

Sorry... my mistake looking on my phone.

 

Still looks really good though.

[GHweatherChris]

Sorry... my mistake looking on my phone.

 

Still looks really good though.

It looks very close to something great.

[Alex_Snakes]

12z is not to bad.

.

 

Now if it only moves up in time...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow. The 12z goes arctic.

[stuffradio]

The latest CFSv2 has a torch west, ice box east with really dry conditions on the West and East coast, and above normal precip in the middle.

[stuffradio]

Here's a new post from 50shadesofvan (I think he has an account here). He works for The Weather Network. This post is only dealing with BC, so don't read it if you expect WA content. http://50shadesofvan.com/blog/2014/12/20/storm-update-peak-after-christmas-and-beyond

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

12Z GFS shows a full on blizzard for next Sunday.

Oh tim.... does look good tho.

[MikeInEverett]

Oh tim.... does look good tho.

Would make the Seahawks - Rams game for next Sunday even more exciting then it already is..

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS was dandy.....

 

Analog Composites much improved. Some real good years showing up

 

Day 6-10

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_12gfs610.gif

 

 

Day 8-14http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_12gfs814.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

How did the parallel look

[Gradient Keeper]

How did the parallel look

It's not available to my knowledge due to some problems NOAA experienced yesterday

[snow_wizard]

The uncertainty is so high right now. The usually rock steady ECMWF ensemble has been all over the place with the 0z run not looking good for us. Nice to see the 12z GFS looking so cold though. The ECMWF continues to show an amazingly favorable MJO wave us going into next year.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z ECMWF is underway

[Jesse]

Why do some people never use question marks