clintbeed1993 Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 NWS is downplaying this thing BIG TIME..which is really dumb. With snow ratios as high as they will be..not a good time to downplay totals. They seem to go against all logic. Even Jim Flowers doesn't seem interested. Thinking we'll see a big change in tone by tomorrow afternoon. Amounts will start creeping up if the models keep looking this juiced. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 6.85" SREF mean for Lincoln through Saturday. QPF mean is only 0.26" though so that would be very high ratios, around 1:35. I feel like that's a little ridiculous. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 GFS still south 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 0z GFS through 105 hours. Yes please. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 0z Canadian through 96 hours. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 RAP 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Wondering what the local mets are seeing and thinking. Caught weather tonight and most calling for 1-2” per wave. Don’t seem all that impressed. Hoping we can cash in on some of these with at least 2”+ from each Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, centralweather44 said: Wondering what the local mets are seeing and thinking. Caught weather tonight and most calling for 1-2” per wave. Don’t seem all that impressed. Hoping we can cash in on some of these with at least 2”+ from each Heavier band seems to be wanting to set up further West if you're in Lincoln. Still, even Hastings is being SUPER conservative with this. I expect them to bump up totals by tomorrow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 5, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 00z Euro through Super Bowl weekend... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 5, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 hours ago, Clinton said: RAP The RAP really digs this system and tries to take it neg tilt while the global models are more positively tilted and flatter. Hoping the RAP is sniffing out this wave being more amped like the globals were showing a few days ago. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 5, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 The LR HRRR is also amping up the Sat wave and is showing some encouraging signs to lay down a rather sig swath of snow... 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 5, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Hmmm, the 06z NAM is also showing this potent wave on Saturday....its showing 20:1 to 22:1 snow ratios... 06z NAM 3km... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 06Z GFS through 96 hrs 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 09Z RAP- 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 RDPS- 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 NWS Hastings has finally arrived at the party, 2 days behind most of us. There disco this morning was amazing. Too long to post, so go there if interested. Summary, brutal stretch of cold. They aren’t exactly sure where the heaviest bands will set up, so amounts will likely change and probably will be increased. Says they are looking at all models. GFS and NAM are far apart which will make huge differences in amounts at certain locations. Also, high snow ratios will probably lead to higher amounts. Basically it could snow at any time in the next week. I’ve had my issues with them lately, but this is what I want in a disco. Gives all scenarios, science behind decisions, and potential problems with the forecast. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 06z RGEM This heavy snow area is what Hastings says could shift over the next few days and have drastic differences in amounts. Some models move it East, and some have it further Southwest 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 06Z Euro totals Kuchera 90 hrs (tick N in IA) 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Forecast from KC office. Seems reasonable 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 There is quite a difference for my area, Saturday, between the globals and CAMs. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, Clinton said: Forecast from KC office. Seems reasonable ^^ KC's graphic doesn't line up well with OMA and DMX's graphics. Someone's going to be wrong. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 I did several snow fall measurements around the yard and averaged 4" of new snow and now have 6" on the ground. The snow has kind of a crunchy fell to it so there is some moisture in it. At the current time light snow is falling with a temperature of 20. All in all not as bad as I thought it would be this morning. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 47 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: ^^ KC's graphic doesn't line up well with OMA and DMX's graphics. Someone's going to be wrong. I will be tracking the NWS closely. I saw they really missed with amounts on the low end in Iowa yesterday. I think they are way to conservative in my area of Nebraska. We'll see who is right. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 HRRR through HR 40 (so not to overlap with wave 2 coming into E.NE)-- 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 12z NAM with good coverage this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 14 minutes ago, Clinton said: 12z NAM with good coverage this run. The band has moved southwest more from the last 2 runs. It is the one model that is bad for me. I hope it doesn't verify, but can't throw it out. The Canadian, RGEM, GFS, ICON and the HRW models have been much better. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 12z NAMS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 12z HRW NMMB model. An example of how important this band will be for who gets the heaviest snow. This is totally different than the NAM location for Central Nebraska. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 9z SREF only 10:1 available 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, Clinton said: 9z SREF only 10:1 available I think these bands will be nowcast events. Any fluctuation will have huge impacts. Plus the cold temps could really add up the totals with high ratios. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, CentralNebWeather said: 12z HRW NMMB model. An example of how important this band will be for who gets the heaviest snow. This is totally different than the NAM location for Central Nebraska. It's going to be a watch the radar type of week ahead. Not much agreement though the 3km NAM almost looks like a good compromise. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, Clinton said: It's going to be a watch the radar type of week ahead. Not much agreement though the 3km NAM almost looks like a good compromise. Good point. Will be home tonight, can't wait to track it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, CentralNebWeather said: I think these bands will be nowcast events. Any fluctuation will have huge impacts. Plus the cold temps could really add up the totals with high ratios. Completely agree. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 12z NAMs full run 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Got to say, I love the look of the 3 HRW models that go to 48 hours. Wouldn't mind a slight shift south on a couple, but still look good. Radar tonight will tell the tale on where and how extensive the band will be. Ultimately, NWS North Platte said they think the arctic front will be farther southwest so they believe the bands will be southwest of Euro and NAM. They are following the GFS saying it has been more consistent. That would be something if GFS knocked King Euro off his perch. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 12z WRF-ARW2 model 10:1 ratio to 48 hours. 2nd wave just starting to snow. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 12z RGEM. This model has come southwest from previous runs. Hope this continues. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 12z ICON to 93 hours 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 11 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: 12z ICON to 93 hours The ICON is starting to build on the Mon-Tues storm. That and a storm around Valetines Day were the only 2 storms I had pegged for the first half of Feb. I guess I missed a few waves lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 12z GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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