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Super Bowl Weekend Multiple Waves


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It's been an interesting few days tracking this potential system as the models initially were flashing a wound up storm cutting NW and delivering a major storm but then lost it Day 5-7.   Suddenly, the models are now sniffing it back again in the medium range.  Over the years of tracking systems when a major pattern flip is under way, esp when we are dealing with the real deal surge of Arctic Air, the models have a difficult time figuring out waves along the thermal gradient.  With that being said, overnight guidance per the latest EPS has grown that a S stream energy will track along this arctic front up into the S MW/OHV.  This system has eyes for our KC/MO members into the Lower Lakes region and even possibly for our NE/IA members.  Let's discuss...

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00z Euro Control...

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Probably 1.5 to 2" of squeaky cotton. 6F and the sounds and sights are surely a winter lovers delight!!!

One of our church lot piles. These are everywhere around town. Some even higher. Oh, it is snowing again. 

I just measured 6.3”” and it’s still snowing. There is quite a bit of blowing so might be off a little. Have heard reports of 6-7” from North Platte and East of there to the southeast towards Central

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Just now, Clinton said:

6z Euro Control continues to trend well.  More coverage this run.  I only have 10:1 available with this map.

1612764000-YeJiX3gwNQA.png

I’m glad to see the models are trending towards the original idea.  This one has that look to become a Big Dog.  Like you said, we finally have a real storm/Arctic connection in play.  I always enjoy powdery storms with wind.  Hope these trends continue!

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UKIE....12Z

 

Still likes KC somewhat....

3 inches of snow on this run

We just need a strong enough disturbance, won't need much moisture in 10-15 degree air to produce a good 2-4 inch snow. 

I really feel KC needs to score here in the next 2-3 weeks with all this cold air in the pattern. COME ON BABY!

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22 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

GFSv16...12Z

 

This model is my best friend right now. Beautiful snow totals for KC and other areas. 

Where are you seeing the GFSv16 12z run? It hasn't loaded on Pivotal Weather and isn't on Tropical Tidbits.

  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1 - 4.5"); Season total (12.4")
  • 20-21 monthly: Oct (0.6"); Nov (Trace); Dec (Trace); Jan (7.6"); Feb (4.2"); Mar (Trace) as of 3/17
  • 20-21 temps: Oct(-3.2); Nov (+4.8); Dec (+4.5); Jan (+5.1); Feb (-11.3); Mar (+7.5) as of 3/17
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25 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

Where are you seeing the GFSv16 12z run? It hasn't loaded on Pivotal Weather and isn't on Tropical Tidbits.

GFSv16 12Z has not run yet and I'm on upgraded Pivotal Weather.  Must be some data issue, but I haven't gotten any updates.

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Can I not be fringed? All I ask for. Just one time don't fringe me

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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47 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

GFSv16 12Z has not run yet and I'm on upgraded Pivotal Weather.  Must be some data issue, but I haven't gotten any updates.

Yeah, I was thinking @MIKEKC may have been referring to the 06z run.  And it was a wonder to behold so he was right there! 🙂

  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1 - 4.5"); Season total (12.4")
  • 20-21 monthly: Oct (0.6"); Nov (Trace); Dec (Trace); Jan (7.6"); Feb (4.2"); Mar (Trace) as of 3/17
  • 20-21 temps: Oct(-3.2); Nov (+4.8); Dec (+4.5); Jan (+5.1); Feb (-11.3); Mar (+7.5) as of 3/17
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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

12z Euro at 10:1 for weekend storm

1612720800-lM58UVtBS34.png

I didn't realize another thread had been fired up, so I  posted this in another one, but this would be a very high ratio event for many locations, so 10:1 will not do it justice most likely.  On Saturday night, the Euro has snow falling in areas with temps in the single digits to teens.  

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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32 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

Yeah, I was thinking @MIKEKC may have been referring to the 06z run.  And it was a wonder to behold so he was right there! 🙂

I've done that before.  I went back and checked a minute ago and it still says 06Z so I'm assuming we won't be getting the 12z.  Hopefully it loads for the 18z and 0z.

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21 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Euro Control more juiced than op.

1612742400-lkmjkdoNFSg.png

That would sure freshen up the snow pack.  I'm amazed how our snow pack is holding up.  Dense fog has slowed the melting process.  Might lose some tomorrow, but many of the piles will be around till Spring.  

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29 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

I didn't realize another thread had been fired up, so I  posted this in another one, but this would be a very high ratio event for many locations, so 10:1 will not do it justice most likely.  On Saturday night, the Euro has snow falling in areas with temps in the single digits to teens.  

I agree ratios will be much higher, I just don't have Kuchera available for The Euro Control.

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Totals through 144hr- subtract/add what you will- image.thumb.png.9a9f607e4c66bda0d63217b22739c5a8.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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NOAA on board so far:

Model data continues to show a lobe of planetary vorticity, large
wavelength trough, swinging through the Great Lakes on Sunday. Recent
ECMWF runs show a direct hit with deeper synoptic moisture and
accumulating snow. Most noteworthy item for the time period is the
brutal arctic cold being advertised from Sunday through the middle
of next week.

Note: I just hope the EC does not steal the show.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Not a fan of the trajectory/path coming from NW to SE. Going to be really hard to come far enough north to clip SMI. Congrats I-70 Peeps!

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Not a fan of the trajectory/path coming from NW to SE. Going to be really hard to come far enough north to clip SMI. Congrats I-70 Peeps!

Not sure if it will make it up to ya but I don't think we have seen the final solution.

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00z Canadian juiced up with the Sunday system.

snku_024h.us_c.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Oh, NOW climo kicks in.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Oh Canada!

1362900213_OhCanada...jpg.9939bee278f560307d85190278682784.jpg

 

0z GEM's my friend here.

609629146_202102030zGEMh138Snowfall.thumb.png.e4bc75127a4386169b1d1893d1b651f1.png

 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Tonight's Euro is pretty weak.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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