Tom 16870 Posted February 2 Report Share Posted February 2 It's been an interesting few days tracking this potential system as the models initially were flashing a wound up storm cutting NW and delivering a major storm but then lost it Day 5-7. Suddenly, the models are now sniffing it back again in the medium range. Over the years of tracking systems when a major pattern flip is under way, esp when we are dealing with the real deal surge of Arctic Air, the models have a difficult time figuring out waves along the thermal gradient. With that being said, overnight guidance per the latest EPS has grown that a S stream energy will track along this arctic front up into the S MW/OHV. This system has eyes for our KC/MO members into the Lower Lakes region and even possibly for our NE/IA members. Let's discuss... 00z Euro Control... 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16870 Posted February 2 Author Report Share Posted February 2 00z GFSv16... 00z Canadian... 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16870 Posted February 2 Author Report Share Posted February 2 00z UKIE on board as well and lines up quite well with the EPS in the general snow shield... 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 3783 Posted February 2 Report Share Posted February 2 06 GFS is suppressed and weak 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 3783 Posted February 2 Report Share Posted February 2 GFSv16 06Z- not so suppressed--- 3 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4408 Posted February 2 Report Share Posted February 2 2 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: GFSv16 06Z- not so suppressed--- I can get behind this! First time this year KC has had a storm and Artic air at the same time. 1 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4408 Posted February 2 Report Share Posted February 2 6z Euro Control continues to trend well. More coverage this run. I only have 10:1 available with this map. 1 1 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16870 Posted February 2 Author Report Share Posted February 2 Just now, Clinton said: 6z Euro Control continues to trend well. More coverage this run. I only have 10:1 available with this map. I’m glad to see the models are trending towards the original idea. This one has that look to become a Big Dog. Like you said, we finally have a real storm/Arctic connection in play. I always enjoy powdery storms with wind. Hope these trends continue! 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
CentralNebWeather 4704 Posted February 2 Report Share Posted February 2 06 GFSv16. Nice trends this morning. Should be a high ratio snow with wind and very cold temps. 5 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16870 Posted February 2 Author Report Share Posted February 2 Woah, the 06z EPS has about 80% of its members showing a classic S MW/Lower Lakes cutter....some impressive hits showing up... 1 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MIKEKC 413 Posted February 2 Report Share Posted February 2 ICON up first on the weekend storm....12z run NOTHING!!!! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MIKEKC 413 Posted February 2 Report Share Posted February 2 GFS and CMC......12Z WEAK SAUCE!! Darn it! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Stacsh 901 Posted February 2 Report Share Posted February 2 11 minutes ago, MIKEKC said: GFS and CMC......12Z WEAK SAUCE!! Darn it! I think the cold actually wins out and the Euro will show this suppressed now as well. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MIKEKC 413 Posted February 2 Report Share Posted February 2 UKIE....12Z Still likes KC somewhat.... 3 inches of snow on this run We just need a strong enough disturbance, won't need much moisture in 10-15 degree air to produce a good 2-4 inch snow. I really feel KC needs to score here in the next 2-3 weeks with all this cold air in the pattern. COME ON BABY! 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MIKEKC 413 Posted February 2 Report Share Posted February 2 GFSv16...12Z This model is my best friend right now. Beautiful snow totals for KC and other areas. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
CentralNebWeather 4704 Posted February 2 Report Share Posted February 2 12Z UKIE 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
GDR 665 Posted February 2 Report Share Posted February 2 Looks good another 2-4 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4408 Posted February 2 Report Share Posted February 2 12z GFS ensembles still look ok. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
mlgamer 504 Posted February 2 Report Share Posted February 2 22 minutes ago, MIKEKC said: GFSv16...12Z This model is my best friend right now. Beautiful snow totals for KC and other areas. Where are you seeing the GFSv16 12z run? It hasn't loaded on Pivotal Weather and isn't on Tropical Tidbits. Quote 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1 - 4.5"); Season total (12.4") 20-21 monthly: Oct (0.6"); Nov (Trace); Dec (Trace); Jan (7.6"); Feb (4.2"); Mar (Trace) as of 3/17 20-21 temps: Oct(-3.2); Nov (+4.8); Dec (+4.5); Jan (+5.1); Feb (-11.3); Mar (+7.5) as of 3/17 Link to post Share on other sites
CentralNebWeather 4704 Posted February 2 Report Share Posted February 2 25 minutes ago, mlgamer said: Where are you seeing the GFSv16 12z run? It hasn't loaded on Pivotal Weather and isn't on Tropical Tidbits. GFSv16 12Z has not run yet and I'm on upgraded Pivotal Weather. Must be some data issue, but I haven't gotten any updates. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
CentralNebWeather 4704 Posted February 2 Report Share Posted February 2 Weather apps are showing my area receiving 2-4" late Friday night through Saturday. Would be accompanied by wind so you think it will be blown around some with Arctic air on its heels. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
CentralNebWeather 4704 Posted February 2 Report Share Posted February 2 12Z Euro is a nice hit for much of the area. Some of this is from the previous storm and I can only post all of it. For me, most of it is new. 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4408 Posted February 2 Report Share Posted February 2 12z Euro at 10:1 for weekend storm 5 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
jaster220 8342 Posted February 2 Report Share Posted February 2 Can I not be fringed? All I ask for. Just one time don't fringe me 4 Quote Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1" Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 49.7" Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal) 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to post Share on other sites
mlgamer 504 Posted February 2 Report Share Posted February 2 47 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: GFSv16 12Z has not run yet and I'm on upgraded Pivotal Weather. Must be some data issue, but I haven't gotten any updates. Yeah, I was thinking @MIKEKC may have been referring to the 06z run. And it was a wonder to behold so he was right there! Quote 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1 - 4.5"); Season total (12.4") 20-21 monthly: Oct (0.6"); Nov (Trace); Dec (Trace); Jan (7.6"); Feb (4.2"); Mar (Trace) as of 3/17 20-21 temps: Oct(-3.2); Nov (+4.8); Dec (+4.5); Jan (+5.1); Feb (-11.3); Mar (+7.5) as of 3/17 Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4408 Posted February 2 Report Share Posted February 2 Euro Control more juiced than op. 6 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3517 Posted February 2 Report Share Posted February 2 1 hour ago, Clinton said: 12z Euro at 10:1 for weekend storm I didn't realize another thread had been fired up, so I posted this in another one, but this would be a very high ratio event for many locations, so 10:1 will not do it justice most likely. On Saturday night, the Euro has snow falling in areas with temps in the single digits to teens. 1 Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
CentralNebWeather 4704 Posted February 2 Report Share Posted February 2 32 minutes ago, mlgamer said: Yeah, I was thinking @MIKEKC may have been referring to the 06z run. And it was a wonder to behold so he was right there! I've done that before. I went back and checked a minute ago and it still says 06Z so I'm assuming we won't be getting the 12z. Hopefully it loads for the 18z and 0z. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
CentralNebWeather 4704 Posted February 2 Report Share Posted February 2 21 minutes ago, Clinton said: Euro Control more juiced than op. That would sure freshen up the snow pack. I'm amazed how our snow pack is holding up. Dense fog has slowed the melting process. Might lose some tomorrow, but many of the piles will be around till Spring. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Jayhawker85 65 Posted February 2 Report Share Posted February 2 hopefully this system will organize a bit further west to hit lawrence and kc pretty good 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4408 Posted February 2 Report Share Posted February 2 29 minutes ago, bud2380 said: I didn't realize another thread had been fired up, so I posted this in another one, but this would be a very high ratio event for many locations, so 10:1 will not do it justice most likely. On Saturday night, the Euro has snow falling in areas with temps in the single digits to teens. I agree ratios will be much higher, I just don't have Kuchera available for The Euro Control. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 3783 Posted February 2 Report Share Posted February 2 Totals through 144hr- subtract/add what you will- 2 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
Stacsh 901 Posted February 2 Report Share Posted February 2 Got my snowblower filled up, cleaned up and ready to roll. West Michigan finally gets in the game! I have a HUGE backyard. Ice rink? 1 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
CentralNebWeather 4704 Posted February 2 Report Share Posted February 2 Looks good. Always nice to have the Euro on your side. 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Niko 7225 Posted February 2 Report Share Posted February 2 NOAA on board so far: Model data continues to show a lobe of planetary vorticity, large wavelength trough, swinging through the Great Lakes on Sunday. Recent ECMWF runs show a direct hit with deeper synoptic moisture and accumulating snow. Most noteworthy item for the time period is the brutal arctic cold being advertised from Sunday through the middle of next week. Note: I just hope the EC does not steal the show. 2 Quote Snowfall as of today: Feb, 2021: 41.2" Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4408 Posted February 3 Report Share Posted February 3 18z Euro weak and stretched out. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4408 Posted February 3 Report Share Posted February 3 Well in tonights episode of As The Models Turn the ICON has came all the way back with a major storm. 1 1 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
CentralNebWeather 4704 Posted February 3 Report Share Posted February 3 0z ICON to 144 hours. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
CentralNebWeather 4704 Posted February 3 Report Share Posted February 3 13 minutes ago, Clinton said: Well in tonights episode of As The Models Turn the ICON has came all the way back with a major storm. I wish I had more faith in this model. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4408 Posted February 3 Report Share Posted February 3 4 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: I wish I had more faith in this model. For KC none of them have been worth a D**n this year. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4408 Posted February 3 Report Share Posted February 3 0z GFS is stronger but still weak and fast. Maybe a trend in the right direction. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4408 Posted February 3 Report Share Posted February 3 0z GFS 10:1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
CentralNebWeather 4704 Posted February 3 Report Share Posted February 3 0z GFS to 144 hours. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
jaster220 8342 Posted February 3 Report Share Posted February 3 Not a fan of the trajectory/path coming from NW to SE. Going to be really hard to come far enough north to clip SMI. Congrats I-70 Peeps! 1 Quote Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1" Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 49.7" Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal) 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4408 Posted February 3 Report Share Posted February 3 4 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Not a fan of the trajectory/path coming from NW to SE. Going to be really hard to come far enough north to clip SMI. Congrats I-70 Peeps! Not sure if it will make it up to ya but I don't think we have seen the final solution. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
CentralNebWeather 4704 Posted February 3 Report Share Posted February 3 0z UKIE. Whoa. Remember this is 10:1 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4578 Posted February 3 Report Share Posted February 3 00z Canadian juiced up with the Sunday system. 1 Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
FAR_Weather 5214 Posted February 3 Report Share Posted February 3 Oh, NOW climo kicks in. 1 Quote >1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4") Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6" Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15) First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT Link to post Share on other sites
jaster220 8342 Posted February 3 Report Share Posted February 3 Oh Canada! 0z GEM's my friend here. 3 Quote Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1" Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 49.7" Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal) 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4578 Posted February 3 Report Share Posted February 3 Tonight's Euro is pretty weak. Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
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