Scott26 Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 UKIE http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif Change from it's 12z run and keeping the northern stream much farther northThe Northern stream definitely needs to be further south for this to phase earlier. It will be something to watch in the coming days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 GGEM has the low in the east coast with pretty much nothing besides a strong clipper for the MW However, that 2nd storm does this: http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_204_0000.gif http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_216_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 You guys may think I'm crazy lol, but I don't care if I even get any accumulating snow out of this thing. From a Meteorological standpoint how often do you see a 965 mb low in December or ever for that matter in the US? The wind field with this thing being modeled is just amazing and how it all seems to be coming together is beautiful imo. Snow would just be a small added bonus for me. A lot can change, but I'm very excited. That point right there got me thinking about what's on the models. I would be very surprised if we saw a system that strong. Reality- models are probably over doing it at this point. If anything I think we could see this system trek south and probably no lower than 980 mb or so. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 Just because: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2014121800/navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_23.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2014121800/navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_24.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2014121800/navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_25.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 GEFS is way to the west of the OP http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014121800/gfs-ens_z500_mslp_us_28.png 983 ensemble mean is impressive considering it's 6 days out yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 Yeah northern stream dominant like the GFS. Interesting to track nonetheless. Holding out hope for the post Christmas storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 GFS Ensembles: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_0z/f156.gif http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_0z/f162.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 How was Euro? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 I heard it was a bowling ball! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 Looks like a decent hit for for wisconson but not much for iowa or Illinois. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 6z GFS is pretty impressive with the clipper. Two fold problem now on the table. Northern stream doesnt dig and southern stream moves to quickly. Could easily change back of course. Also need that first system to get out of here if we want he second one to develop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yerf Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 From NWS MODELS...THEY HAVE CONSISTENTLY FORECAST A DEEP LOW TO DEVELOP.FOUR CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE GFS AND EC HAVE SHOWN 975MB OR DEEPERLOWS BY 12Z ON CHRISTMAS MORNING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERNONTARIO/NORTHEAST U.S. REGION Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 At this point the worst case scenario is that we get mood setting snow showers for Christmas which will be fine with me. If this storm does not bomb out then it will leave the door open for storm #2 to be a strong lakes cutter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 In reality most of this forum would probably be better of if the 1st storm became a coastal and gets kicked out to sea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 00z Euro... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 N. stream digging farther south and stronger through hr 75. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 HR 87 has a 1002 L or so in SE SD. Way farther south than 0z/6z. Let's see where this goes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 GFS has the SLP centered directly over the Mississippi River on the WI & MN border. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 Overall so far it is showing mostly rain in Iowa, but looks like a transition to snow showers late Monday. Accumulations would appear to be light. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 996 over my area and a 1004 L down in OK developing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 996 over my area and a 1004 L down in OK developing. Where do you live Money? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 Eastern WI. HR 126: 996 L in E. IN an 996 over N. WI Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 Considering this storm and the holidays my work productivity is going to be near an all time low! Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 Starts to phase in MI. 992 over Detroit at HR 135 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 12z GFS took a sep in right direction...trying to swing back deeper precip into cold sector. Not so much yet, but hopefully a trend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 LOL now the parallel GFS is going way north with the northern stream. Very concused models Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 GFS Parallel HR 132 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121812/gfsp_z500_mslp_us_23.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 I don't think this is going to be a widespread large snow producer. It looks like some widespread light snow showers and flurries, but most of the main activity is in the far northern parts of MN, WI, and MI and into Canada. Doesn't look like a typical winter storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 Parallel is going to be a big storm pressure wise down to 990 at HR in C. KY at 138 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121812/gfsp_z500_mslp_us_24.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121812/gfsp_z500_mslp_us_26.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 Well Skilling feeling confident that there will be no big snowstorm!!http://static.chicagoweathercenter.com/media/2014/12/featuregraphic121814-1024x634.jpgent for no big snow storm next week!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 Unfortunately this storm is a waste. It will pack a punch wind wise but precip will be non-existent for most of us except for rain/snow showers. On to the next storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 Unfortunately this storm is a waste. It will pack a punch wind wise but precip will be non-existent for most of us except for rain/snow showers. On to the next storm. Next storm tries to go big but it gets squashed because of the phasing storm in Canada. Worst case all around. Either need it to go off to the east coast which will allow the next one to cut to the lakes or have this one bomb out. Can't have in-between Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 Parallel GFS http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121812/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121812/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121812/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 GGEM: HR 120: HR 144 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 lol oh those canadians and their weather models Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 There are just too many moving parts with this storm to get it to become a widespread snow producer. If the southern piece could somehow become the main player then we would be seeing a nice neg tilt snow storm that we all dream of. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 The strongest precip actually comes from the clipper on Sunday night into Monday, but it drops about a quarter to half inch of rain and rain/snow mix in Iowa. Too bad there wasn't a bit more cold air to work with and keep that all snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 UKIE http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 Which is plausible. Need to wait for some sampling of the two streams. There are just too many moving parts with this storm to get it to become a widespread snow producer. If the southern piece could somehow become the main player then we would be seeing a nice neg tilt snow storm that we all dream of. 1 Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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