Christmas Eve Potential Major Winter Storm

[Scott26]

0z GFS coming in much slower with the northern stream through 72

Big time difference with the southern stream at 93 hours as well. The northern stream is slower while the southern stream is definitely further east. Lets see if this can phase earlier.

[Money]

0z Parallel is gonna be a bomb. Even more so than 18z. Maps coming soon.

[Money]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121900/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png

[Money]

Here is 18z at the same time period:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121818/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png

 

Gonna be a huge hit

[Tom]

00z GFS Par cutting farther west a little bit this run...also seems the southern stream energy becomes the main event...

[Money]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121900/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png

[Money]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121900/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png

[Money]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121900/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png

[Money]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121900/gfsp_asnow_us_23.png

 

With 12 more hrs to go.

[Tom]

00z GFS Par took a big step in the right direction...hoping the updates the U.S. Gov't are giving this model are providing us with good modeling.  Time will tell how well this model handles this storm.  TBH, this is kind of what I am expecting with this system.  The southern energy coming out of the Gulf usually ends up becoming the main player in systems like these.  Hope to see the Euro show something similar.  Not going to get excited till I see some consistency over the next day or so.

[Money]

Huge changes in the 0z GGEM. Showing a much stronger southern stream system at hr 96

[Money]

HR 120

 

 

Lot of precip around the southern stream storm

[Money]

Total snowfall on P GFS

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121900/gfsp_asnow_us_26.png

[clintbeed1993]

Wow!  Look out Plains!  Beautiful Colorado Low in the making.

[Money]

0z UKIE

 

HR 120

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

 

 

HR 144

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

[Tom]

What a whacky run on the 00z GFS Op...it basically runs into a roadblock and retrogrades the system back down into the Upper Midwest 4 days later...lol

[Money]

So that's UKIE/P GFS that phase the system and takes it up near L. MI while OP GFS, and GGEM is farter east

[Geos]

What a whacky run on the 00z GFS Op...it basically runs into a roadblock and retrogrades the system back down into the Upper Midwest 4 days later...lol

 

There is something wrong with that run. The moisture with this system should be much higher than what the models is showing.

The Gulf is wide open...

 

[winterfreak]

Well the second system takes a decent track but rather weak. Model watching is consuming a large portion of my free time lately lol.

[james1976]

What i do like about the 0z GFS run is that it shows better snow for Iowa when the Low first arrives into the area. After that it seems to go all over the place. This may end up being a nowcast event. I mean, how does one go about forecasting a cutoff low?

[Money]

[Tom]

Ensembles are the way to go to try and figure this storm out this far in advance.  What do they 00z GFS Ensembles show???

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Ensembles are the way to go to try and figure this storm out this far in advance.  What do they 00z GFS Ensembles show???

 

They don't come out for another couple hours, at least on PSU's page, there may be other pages that receive them sooner.

[james1976]

Those GEM ensembles look very intriguing for most members on this board.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Those GEM ensembles look very intriguing for most members on this board.

 

A bit too amped up and west for the Chicago/Milwaukee peeps.  Just yesterday many of the models were showing an East Coast storm primarily (even today).

[Tom]

Onto the 00z Euro...something tells me the southern piece will do something crazy.

[Tom]

00z Euro a little different look this run @ 120HR...looks like southern piece is coming straight out of the Gulf near Alabama...lets see where it goes from here...

[Tom]

00z Euro with a 974mb near Detroit @ 144HR...complete bomb...

[Money]

Wonder if it brings any cold sector precip with it. 

[Tom]

Completely different run from its 12z run yesterday....much farther west and similar looking to the 00z GFS Par (except its farther east near Detroit)...waiting for precip maps to load...

[Money]

31 MB drop in 24 hrs is impressive. 

[Tom]

00z Euro nice hit MI...man, so close...but I like the trend for tonight's 00z runs...getting closer to a full phase earlier.  Won't take much to swing back more moisture into cold sector.

[Money]

00z Euro nice hit MI...man, so close...but I like the trend for tonight's 00z runs...getting closer to a full phase earlier.  Won't take much to swing back more moisture into cold sector.

 

Great trends tonight

[Tom]

Great trends tonight

Euro has a much weaker northern piece and the southern piece works it's magic.  This second piece of energy comes off the Rockies and dives down into the Gulf.  This model has a hard time handling that energy as it comes off the Mountains so slight timing differences can be bigger implications down the road.

[Scott26]

 I'm loving the trends from last nights runs as well.  The 00Z Euro essentially brought back its monster phased solution it had a couple of days ago. The Northern stream is further south and the southern stream ejects faster for rapid deepening a lot quicker and further west. This will continue to be very interesting to watch with many model shifts likely as we continue to get closer.

[Money]

6z par gfs with another monster

 

970 in central Lake Michigan

[Money]

Some of the  6z GFS ensembles:

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_6z/f132.gif

[gosaints]

Wow impressive trends for alot of you overnight.  to bad it doesnt get its act together sooner could be a much more spread the wealth scenario

[gosaints]

This thread is gonna be interesting the next 4 days.  the number of different scenarios that we are going to see will be high.  This is not a typical storm and models will jump all over especially with the energy way out in the pacific.

[gosaints]

man the GFS is warm for the clipper part of the storm