Geos Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 UK MET. GGEM has sure been delayed these last several nights. Wonder what gives... Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 OK-- I admit. I'am searching for something- anything that shows some snow for central IA. The hi-res NAM aint so bad- Too bad it likely not going to happen-- but at least I have some hope. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 OK-- I admit. I'am searching for something- anything that shows some snow for central IA. The hi-res NAM aint so bad- Too bad it likely not going to happen-- but at least I have some hope.hires_snow_acc_mw_20.pngno chance Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 22, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 00z GGEM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 22, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 00z Euro...first time I've seen a run with a healthy defo band showing up...starting to look like a real storm...temps marginal but still a day or two away from pin pointing these variables. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Wrote up a special discussion on this storm, FWIW. http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/12/special-forecast-discussion-christmas.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122206/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_11.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122206/gfsp_asnow_us_13.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDizBliz420 Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 This looks like lots of snow for Chicago! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam-hires/06/nam-hires_namer_060_sim_reflectivity.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 This looks like lots of snow for Chicago! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam-hires/06/nam-hires_namer_060_sim_reflectivity.gif I have a feeling rain will be the bigger issue this time around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDizBliz420 Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 I read the discussion from LOT and it sounds like they think more snow south and east so that doesn't sound like rain but I don't know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Chicago will not be getting a lot of snow. If they do I'd be shocked and leave this forum for good! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDizBliz420 Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Why would you do that? Do you hate Chicago, lol! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Why would you do that? Do you hate Chicago, lol! I don't think it's so much Chicago he hates, as it is life in general. (from a source at theweatherforums) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 SREF mean has a 1000 L over Chicago at hr 63 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 SREF mean has a 1000 L over Chicago at hr 63 The amount of weakening this thing has gone through is impressive Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 The amount of weakening this thing has gone through is impressive I'm guessing the reason why it's weaker is because there's a lot of spread. There's probably a handful of members way east of that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Either way couple days ago we were looking at 970 mb bombs.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDizBliz420 Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 i think Chicago gets 6-10 inches Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 I'm actually becoming more interested in this storm for our snow chances vs the one at the end of the week. Looks like we could get a couple of inches and have a heavy burst of snow overnight tonight into Tuesday morning. Here's Omaha's AFD: THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR AN ENHANCED AREA OF HEAVIER PCPN ACROSS EASTCENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAYMORNING...WHERE MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING VERY STRONG VERTICALMOTION FOR ASCENT.A VERY CONCERNING ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIERSNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM NEAR THE OMAHA METRO AREA AND POINTSSOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. MODEL QPF CONTINUES TO COME IN HIGHER WITHEACH CONSECUTIVE RUN AND THE PREVIOUS MENTIONED STRONG FORCING FORASCENT IS CONFINED IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWAFROM 03Z-12Z. HAVE INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Hi-res NAM and regular nam are so much dif. at hr 30 it's unreal lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Actually a chance of some decent rippage here tomorrow morning. to bad temps suck. about like the models Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Still thinking I might be in the game....With a Christmas miracle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Hi-res NAM is a bomb. 989 L in Central Indiana and strengthening fast http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2014122212/nam4km_ref_us_17.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 42 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2014122212/nam4km_ref_us_14.png 45 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2014122212/nam4km_ref_us_15.png 48 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2014122212/nam4km_ref_us_16.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 54 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2014122212/nam4km_ref_us_18.png 57 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2014122212/nam4km_ref_us_19.png 60 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2014122212/nam4km_ref_us_20.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 the hi res nam and nam are only a state apart Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Total snowfall: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2014122212/nam4km_asnow_us_21.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 the hi res nam and nam are only a state apart 983 compared to 996 around the same time frame. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Lock it in riding the hi res nam....lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 RGEM is coming NW HR 36 has a 997 L in N. MS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 0z RGEM HR 48 12z RGEM HR 36. 4 MB stronger and a good bit NW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 RGEM is coming NW HR 36 has a 997 L in N. AL N MS it looks like, which means it will probably make a beeline for W Indiana. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Mike Hamernik at WGN is going with 1-4" already! Crazy looking on the 4km NAM. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 N MS it looks like, which means it will probably make a beeline for W Indiana. My bad, and the trend has certainly been NW on all of the higher resolution models so far. We'll see what GFS/GFSP says in 20-25 mins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 RGEM HR 48: 988 just south of Chicago Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 My bad, and the trend has certainly been NW on all of the higher resolution models so far. We'll see what GFS/GFSP says in 20-25 mins The RGEM has a tendency sometimes to be too amped, so I would take it with a grain of salt similar to how the NAM is seeming too suppressed at this time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 The RGEM has a tendency sometimes to be too amped, so I would take it with a grain of salt similar to how the NAM is seeming too suppressed at this time. True, but the 6z GFS Parallel was down to about 980. The trend has been clear for the higher resolution models the last 2 or so runs. More amped up than the op. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 True, but the 6z GFS Parallel was down to about 980. The trend has been clear for the higher resolution models the last 2 or so runs. More amped up than the op. Regardless of outcome, one of the models at least is going to be schooled due to how different each run seems to be. Either the NAM/Euro/Euro Ensembles are going to look awful, or the GFS/hi-res NAM are going to end up too amped. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 i think Chicago gets 6-10 inches I say 12-18 inches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDizBliz420 Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 I say 12-18 inches. too fast Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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