January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Prairiedog]

Next weekend we need the snow for our outing. Right now looking like some subtropical moisture tap for then and freezing levels pretty high. It just hasn't been a good winter for mountain snow overall. 30f at the lodge right now and no new snow. 41" base. Pretty sad. Just enough to get by there but very little at pass level. We snowshoe around Trillium lake, mainly because we get the grey jays to land on the kids and they enjoy that. It's a good trail too, not too difficult for novices. Snow conditions are borderline to poor. Very wet and above freezing for next weekend.

[wx_statman]

Looking at numbers for Horse Creek at 3,400' in the Cascades, and it gives you an idea of how warm the mountains have been the last two January's. They averaged 52.7 degrees for the maximum last January, and are at 53.5 so far this month. Good luck building any sort of appreciable snow pack with that! They had 9 days in the 60's last January with a whopping 77 degrees under the mega ridge mid-month, the same ridge that brought a monthly-record 63 degrees to Government Camp. Horse Creek has already seen three days in the 60's this month with a peak of 71 on the 7th.

 

Compare these numbers to a January that sees more in the way of cold onshore flow, like 2008. Monthly average maximum of 37.9 degrees and a peak of 58. Pretty profound difference.

[Deweydog]

At least this month isn't on track to be record or near-record warmest like the last 5 out of 6. Glass half full!

Lots of people commenting on how raw it's felt thus far in 2015. Will be interesting to see how things play out the rest of the way.

[BLI snowman]

At least this month isn't on track to be record or near-record warmest like the last 5 out of 6. Glass half full!

 

I'd rather see another historic torch TBH. 

 

Makes one think the deck is stacked a little more in our favor for whenever the other shoe decides to drop. January 2019!

[snow_wizard]

Daffodils usually make their appearance in Jan. Crocus's are next up for blooming.

Biorthythms are amazing. Phototaxic responses esp. Frogs will start courting soon and are going strong by Feb 1. You gain a few minutes of daylight and everything starts getting hormonal.

Birds gonads atrophy in the non breeding seasons to reduce weight which obviously takes more energy to fly. Days get longer, insect populations slowly start to increase, added protein in birds diets start the redevelopment of ovary and testes and so it all begins.

As for frogs it's crazy to listen to them sing when there's snow on the ground (esp with temps as cold as they were here last Feb. and the frogs were chorusing like it were a concert in July.

Was hoping next weekend would bring some snow to the Mt. Hood area for snowshoeing but looking to be marginal at 4,000ft. Perhaps a lot of moisture getting tapped into. One would think in mid-jan we could get at least one good dump. Taking a big group of HS kids snowshoeing. Don't need cold rain.

 

I've never heard the frogs do that here when it's that cold.  Usually when it gets cold after they have woken up they disappear again.

 

I hope things work out ok for your snowshoeing trip.  This has just been an exceptionally bad year for the mountains.

[snow_wizard]

Looking at numbers for Horse Creek at 3,400' in the Cascades, and it gives you an idea of how warm the mountains have been the last two January's. They averaged 52.7 degrees for the maximum last January, and are at 53.5 so far this month. Good luck building any sort of appreciable snow pack with that! They had 9 days in the 60's last January with a whopping 77 degrees under the mega ridge mid-month, the same ridge that brought a monthly-record 63 degrees to Government Camp. Horse Creek has already seen three days in the 60's this month with a peak of 71 on the 7th.

 

Compare these numbers to a January that sees more in the way of cold onshore flow, like 2008. Monthly average maximum of 37.9 degrees and a peak of 58. Pretty profound difference.

 

Pretty astonishing numbers for that elevation.  It certainly is amazing how much colder the passes are at comparable elevations.

[MossMan]

I'd rather see another historic torch TBH. 

 

Makes one think the deck is stacked a little more in our favor for whenever the other shoe decides to drop. January 2019!

I'm starting to think about picking up a Delorean, finding a Flux Capacitor at Radio Shack, and setting the dial to Jan 1950.

[BLI snowman]

I'm starting to think about picking up a Delorean, finding a Flux Capacitor at Radio Shack, and setting the dial to Jan 1950.

 

In Back to the Future, Marty McFly travels back to November 1955, shortly before we had a major arctic outbreak, from October 1985 which was also shortly before we had a major arctic outbreak. In Back to the Future Part II, he travels to October 2015. Hmm.....

[Deweydog]

In Back to the Future, Marty McFly travels back to November 1955, shortly before we had a major arctic outbreak, from October 1985 which was also shortly before we had a major arctic outbreak. In Back to the Future Part II, he travels to October 2015. Hmm.....

 

We should know soon with a high degree of accuracy and confidence.  1:02 in.  

 

[Jesse]

I'd rather see another historic torch TBH. 

 

Makes one think the deck is stacked a little more in our favor for whenever the other shoe decides to drop. January 2019!

 

Did us wonders in 2003, 2006 and 2010. SO MANY epic Januaries since then. Just ask Flatiron.

[stuffradio]

In Back to the Future, Marty McFly travels back to November 1955, shortly before we had a major arctic outbreak, from October 1985 which was also shortly before we had a major arctic outbreak. In Back to the Future Part II, he travels to October 2015. Hmm.....

It all makes sense! October 2015 snowmageddon! You heard it here first.

[snow_wizard]

I'd rather see another historic torch TBH. 

 

Makes one think the deck is stacked a little more in our favor for whenever the other shoe decides to drop. January 2019!

 

If we are not already due 10 times over there's no hope.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If we are not already due 10 times over there's no hope.

 

Don't worry we'll probably have an arctic outbreak in one of the next 2-3 Decembers.

[wx_statman]

If we are not already due 10 times over there's no hope.

 

I hope the 2020's bring us something good. The last 20's did!

[snow_wizard]

Don't worry we'll probably have an arctic outbreak in one of the next 2-3 Decembers.

 

It's become pretty much ubiquitous in December.  January on the other hand...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is kind of what I saw as the other shoe dropping...

 

https://climate.usurf.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024221&year=2013&month=12&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

 

https://climate.usurf.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024221&year=2014&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It's become pretty much ubiquitous in December.  January on the other hand...

 

Well this December torch was kind of a long time coming...

[TT-SEA]

Well... the Broncos are done.    No surprise this time.

 

And its raining in Denver.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking at numbers for Horse Creek at 3,400' in the Cascades, and it gives you an idea of how warm the mountains have been the last two January's. They averaged 52.7 degrees for the maximum last January, and are at 53.5 so far this month. Good luck building any sort of appreciable snow pack with that! They had 9 days in the 60's last January with a whopping 77 degrees under the mega ridge mid-month, the same ridge that brought a monthly-record 63 degrees to Government Camp. Horse Creek has already seen three days in the 60's this month with a peak of 71 on the 7th.

 

Compare these numbers to a January that sees more in the way of cold onshore flow, like 2008. Monthly average maximum of 37.9 degrees and a peak of 58. Pretty profound difference.

 

Its interesting. If you look at W. Slope Cascade stations between 2000-4000' they run warmer than stations between 1-2K because they are above the inversion line. But they get a lot more snow. The old Sundown Ranch location isn't far from here and about 2400', they averaged warmer than my current location even in the 1930-1960 timeframe, but their snow totals were insane. Actually almost bought a house up there in 2011.

[wx_statman]

This is kind of what I saw as the other shoe dropping...

 

https://climate.usurf.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024221&year=2013&month=12&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

 

https://climate.usurf.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024221&year=2014&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

 

But then the first shoe came back in July-October.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well... the Broncos are done.    No surprise this time.

 

And its raining in Denver.  

 

Pats vs. Seahawks

[SilverFallsAndrew]

But then the first shoe came back in July-October.

 

True. Its amazing how anomalously warm the past few summers were. I can't see us having a 3rd straight year that torches in that timeframe, though you never know.

[TT-SEA]

Pats vs. Seahawks

 

 

Yeah... would really be something if the Seahawks beat Manning and Brady in consecutive Super Bowls.

[snow_wizard]

Well this December torch was kind of a long time coming...

 

True.  My original post was referring to January though.

[wx_statman]

Its interesting. If you look at W. Slope Cascade stations between 2000-4000' they run warmer than stations between 1-2K because they are above the inversion line. But they get a lot more snow. The old Sundown Ranch location isn't far from here and about 2400', they averaged warmer than my current location even in the 1930-1960 timeframe, but their snow totals were insane. Actually almost bought a house up there in 2011.

 

They also don't get any benefit from cold air drainage, so the temperature shoots up as soon as the atmosphere warms. Very interesting microclimate. Much more variable than the passes only a few miles away.

[BLI snowman]

Did us wonders in 2003, 2006 and 2010. SO MANY epic Januaries since then. Just ask Flatiron.

 

We're just building up to it.

[BLI snowman]

We should know soon with a high degree of accuracy and confidence.  1:02 in.  

 

 

Doc Brown has nothing on Phil.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah... would really be something if the Seahawks beat Manning and Brady in consecutive Super Bowls.

 

Won't happen. A matchup with the Seahawks doesn't scare me at all. 

[TT-SEA]

Won't happen. A matchup with the Seahawks doesn't scare me at all. 

 

 

Scare "me"?

 

And the Seahwawks can easily beat any team right now.    It would have to come down to turnovers for the Packers or Patriots.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Scare "me"?

 

And the Seahwawks can easily beat any team right now.    It would have to come down to turnovers for the Packers or Patriots.

 

You really think that Tom Brady would allow himself to lose a 3rd straight Super Bowl?! I don't think the greatest quarterback of all-time would.

 

A football game can come down to one team wanting it more. See the 2012 Rose Bowl, the game that sent Russell Wilson out a LOSER.

[TT-SEA]

You really think that Tom Brady would allow himself to lose a 3rd straight Super Bowl?! I don't think the greatest quarterback of all-time would.

 

A football game can come down to one team wanting it more. See the 2012 Rose Bowl, the game that sent Russell Wilson out a LOSER.

You have not been paying attention to intensity of the Seahawks lately.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You have not been paying attention to intensity of the Seahawks lately.

 

Probably  not. I haven't actually watched any of the NFL playoff games... I just don't see anyway the Colts can beat NE.

[MossMan]

Probably not. I haven't actually watched any of the NFL playoff games... I just don't see anyway the Colts can beat NE.

NE struggled against Baltimore, almost thought they were going to loose yesterday.

[TT-SEA]

Probably not. I haven't actually watched any of the NFL playoff games... I just don't see anyway the Colts can beat NE.

Maybe not... but either team from the NFC can easily beat them.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Maybe not... but either team from the NFC can easily beat them.

 

I'm more worried about the Packers.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

BTW todays CFS shows an arctic outbreak in early and late March.... Should be fun.

[HighlandExperience]

BTW todays CFS shows an arctic outbreak in early and late March.... Should be fun.

 

Right on cue. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Right on cue. 

 

Looks like a lot of moisture with the arctic front. Should be heavy accumulations above 500'.

[TT-SEA]

I'm more worried about the Packers.

 

 

You shouldn't be... and why would you be worried about anything for a team 3,000 miles away?   Is this like your silly obsession with Kershaw in L.A.?    That did not work out well in the post-season.  

 

The Seahawks defense can beat every other team right now.   Great defense beats a great offense... see last year's Super Bowl for an example.

 

Wilson had a QB rating of 149.2 last night.   Clicking on offense and watch out... because the defense is one of the best ever.    Wilson was 8 for 8 on 3rd downs with 3 passing touchdowns also on 3rd down.     And pocket passers are going to have a tough day against our defense.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You shouldn't be... and why would you be worried about anything for a team 3,000 miles away?   Is this like your silly obsession with Kershaw in L.A.?    That did not work out well in the post-season.  

 

The Seahawks defense can beat every other team right now.   Great defense beats a great offense... see last year's Super Bowl for an example.

 

Wilson had a QB rating of 149.2 last night.   Clicking on offense and watch out... because the defense is one of the best ever.    Wilson was 8 for 8 on 3rd downs with 3 passing touchdowns also on 3rd down.     And pocket passers are going to have a tough day against our defense.

 

Kershaw was awesome...Except in the post season.

 

Russell Wilson is 0-1 against the only team I really care about. You don't even now how pumped I am for tomorrow night. Saw 5 Ducks games in person this year, wish I could be at the game tomorrow night, but family comes first.