Super Bowl Weekend Major Snowstorm

[Tom]

Just to compare 18z run to tonights run same time period...lot more snow coverage...

[Tom]

I think there is much better phasing of northern/southern stream....

[Grizzcoat]

I think there is much better phasing of northerrn/southern stream....

for sure--- a little more and she will really take off..

[Tom]

MKE gets into the 3"+ mark...

[Money]

The ultimate troll job for here. 

[Grizzcoat]

[Money]

7-9 for Chicago. Nice 

[Scott26]

beautiful lake enhancement signal for NE IL as well.

[WBadgersW]

Things are slowly coming back North. Now is this trend going to continue?

[Tom]

00z NAM increases wind profile on this system now which is characteristic of a storm that is deepening better than previous runs.  Just checked sustained winds in IA/IL/WI are 20mph+ with gusts up to 35mph!  Should be a wind driven fluffy snowfall and LES is certainly on the rise considerably which will want to drive farther inland with stronger winds.

[winterfreak]

Rain storm for the win.

[Grizzcoat]

[james1976]

Did you guys notice when the northern stream comes down it looks to develop a defo band (or something) across northern Iowa? Is that phasing??? Cuz it looks like the main event passes by....but then this happens. I haven't seen that yet with this system. Maybe that northern stream is a bit stronger this run.

[mlgamer]

Yep...looks like I'll be posting over on the "Super Bowl Weekend Major Rainstorm" thread...

[Tom]

beautiful lake enhancement signal for NE IL as well.

The LES is setting up to be something of a beauty with about 24 hours of sustained winds off the lake.  Somebody is going to cash in big on lake enhancement.  I think what we will likely see is banding to start forming near MKE initially around 9pm Saturday as the cold front slides down south.  Temps during the onset begin near 30F, then fall into low 20's for the duration of the event.

[Grizzcoat]

Did you guys notice when the northern stream comes down it looks to develop a defo band (or something) across northern Iowa? Is that phasing??? Cuz it looks like the main event passes by....but then this happens. I haven't seen that yet with this system. Maybe that northern stream is a bit stronger this run.

Yes--- it's like partly trying to phase-- or at least earlier-- so close.

[Tom]

Yes--- it's like partly trying to phase-- or at least earlier-- so close.

The trend has been to phase a bit earlier on the Euro as well.  Tonight's full suite of runs should be interesting.  NAM really beefed up the qpf totals northward this run.

[Tony]

 

The LES is setting up to be something of a beauty with about 24 hours of sustained winds off the lake. Somebody is going to cash in big on lake enhancement. I think what we will likely see is banding to start forming near MKE initially around 9pm Saturday as the cold front slides down south. Temps during the onset begin near 30F, then fall into low 20's for the duration of the event.[/quote

 

Yep, from what I can see on my phone the lake enhancement gets going fairly early on and continues for a good 24+

[Tom]

00z NAM full run...12" lolipops showing up near C IN/OH...

 

[Grizzcoat]

21Z SREF shows similar trend to 00Z nam 

[Tom]

00z NAM has SLP developing near S MO/N AR and tracking ENE thru KY/S IN...def farther north for sure...about 150 miles north from 18z run which had it running through AR/MS and thru TN.

[Grizzcoat]

Hi REs NAM also following the trend--- NOTE only through hr 60-

[winterfreak]

This is so painful to watch transpire.

[Tom]

Different look...nice slug of moisture and still snowing in IA/WI/IL...posting the last simulated radar image at 60hr from WRF...the model is picking up on banding near MKE.

 

Check out the WRF's wind profile...solid NNE wind off the lake...

[Madtown]

Well we got some nice lake enhanced bbands off of Lake superior this evening...so that's something

[Tom]

Lake water temps still in the low 40's for a large part of Lake Michigan and with 850's in the teens Celcius sub zero, there should be some intense banding with this set up.  Hope trends continue.

 

http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/ncast/mswt-00.gif

[Money]

GFS coming in north it looks like

[Money]

RGEM at HR 48 looks very, very interesting. Northern stream really digging. 

[Money]

[Money]

Big northward jump with the precip compared to 18z. Precip is already reaching northern iowa at hr 45 while 18z didn't even have it in southern iowa 

[Tom]

00z GFS already breaking out snow in IA at 48hr...

[Tom]

Should be a good run for NE folks...

[Money]

Big northward jump with the precip compared to 18z. Precip is already reaching northern iowa at hr 45 while 18z didn't even have it in southern iowa 

 

Approaching DBQ/S. WI at HR 51 

[Money]

Nice hit for the quad cities so far through 57

 

3-5 + and still snowing. 

[Scott26]

The GFS looks very similar to the NAM in terms of track.

[Tom]

GFS is looking impressive comparing to 18z run...models are getting better data for sure and reading the amount of moisture coming together with this system.  Already 3-6" of snow thru 60hr...

[Money]

Precip reaches all the way up to Green Bay.

 

Widespread 3-6 from MSN to MKE to Chicago to GB etc

[Tom]

Some more snow up your way Money....

[Money]

Some more snow up your way Money....

 

Yup. 3-4 here. I'll take it. 

[Tom]

A healthy looking 6-9" from IA/S WI/IL/IN...