February 2015 PNW Discussion

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I wouldn't be surprised if March is cooler than February this year. 18z is nippy in the long range.

[BLI snowman]

February always seems nicer than March.

 

Maybe it's just expectations go up each month.

 

March is actually a bit wetter than February on average. More jet stream activity historically, as the jet is often suppressed at this point before the storm track gradually moves back north. 

[Deweydog]

March is actually a bit wetter than February on average. More jet stream activity historically, as the jet is often suppressed at this point before the storm track gradually moves back north.

I don't think it's much about more jet stream activity as it is the fact we're getting out of longwave season and entering ULL season.

[Front Ranger]

18Z looking ridgier. 

 

Warmest February on record for many spots grows more likely by the day.

 

If the 12z Euro verified, it would actually be pretty unlikely anyone sees their warmest February on record. Too many frosty mornings like today. The first half of the month was so warm mostly because it was dominated by moist SW flow, lot of very warm lows. Different pattern now and going forward it looks like, with much cooler lows most places, even if warm highs continue.

[Snowman5678]

There was a night in April of that year where I saw the most intense snow burst in my life. For an hour straight we had heavy snow. Woke up the next morning to 10"and had most of it melt by 11am.

 

I remember that CZ! It was awesome except for when it melted really quickly.

[Front Ranger]

March is actually a bit wetter than February on average. More jet stream activity historically, as the jet is often suppressed at this point before the storm track gradually moves back north. 

 

BLI, SEA, OLM, PDX, SLE, and EUG all actually average a little more precip in February.

 

However, they all also average 1-2 more days with precip in March, so maybe that's what you meant.

[Deweydog]

February always seems nicer than March.

 

Maybe it's just expectations go up each month.

Baseball season vs. not baseball season.

 

At this point I'm cringing at the possibilities moving forward.

[BLI snowman]

I don't think it's much about more jet stream activity as it is the fact we're getting out of longwave season and entering ULL season.

 

I'm sure that's a part of it, but then February tends to be southern CA's wettest month. A lot of jet energy tends to focus more southward at this particular time of year, while we're left under split flow or on top of a suppressed jet stream.

[Snowman5678]

It should get cold and rainy around the first week of March because that's when i'm heading out east. I bet there will still be lots of snow piles around but all the snow on the ground will have probably melted by the time I go, my luck.  

[BLI snowman]

BLI, SEA, OLM, PDX, SLE, and EUG all actually average a little more precip in February.

 

However, they all also average 1-2 more days with precip in March, so maybe that's what you meant.

 

Yeah, the rain tends to be heavier when we do get it in February (e.g. 1996), and more convective/showery in March.

 

Worth nothing though that those long term station averages don't reflect recent history at all.

 

Since 1999, Bellingham has been wetter in March in 14/16 years. 

 

And then 2007 was the last time February was wetter than March at PDX, and 2006 was the last time SEA was wetter in February.

[Jesse]

I wouldn't be surprised if March is cooler than February this year. 18z is nippy in the long range.

Hasn't the GFS been nippy in the long range for a couple weeks now?

[richard mann]

If the 12z Euro verified, it would actually be pretty unlikely anyone sees their warmest February on record. Too many frosty mornings like today. The first half of the month was so warm mostly because it was dominated by moist SW flow, lot of very warm lows. Different pattern now and going forward it looks like, with much cooler lows most places, even if warm highs continue.

.. The bi*ch of it all (difficulty, where working to try to put a better spin on the potential at this point) where looking ahead, and remaining unchanged / changing, is where main and more primary cold both is, and isn't, focused still. 

 

— Basically of course, more over East and more Northeastern Canada more poleward. And with not much main cold being focused over even most of Northern Asia, much less anywhere closer more upstream.

 

http://weather.unisys.com/upper air/ua hem.php?plot=n8&inv=0&t=cur

http://weather.unisys.com/upper air/ua hem.php?plot=n5&inv=0&t=cur

 

... Ridging, even more Spring-like conditions, "where cold isn't".

[Deweydog]

I'm sure that's a part of it, but then February tends to be southern CA's wettest month. A lot of jet energy tends to focus more southward at this particular time of year, while we're left under split flow or on top of a suppressed jet stream.

True, but in general the jet's gonna be weaker. I always wonder too why people refer to the jet as migrating north or south. It doesn't really do that on a seasonal basis, just weakens/intensifies, lengthens/shortens.

[Deweydog]

Hasn't the GFS been nippy in the long range for a couple weeks now?

Jaded lil' guppy.

[Jesse]

If the 12z Euro verified, it would actually be pretty unlikely anyone sees their warmest February on record. Too many frosty mornings like today. The first half of the month was so warm mostly because it was dominated by moist SW flow, lot of very warm lows. Different pattern now and going forward it looks like, with much cooler lows most places, even if warm highs continue.

A 64/36 day like PDX is on track for today is still record warm Feb territory.

 

Average daily temp of 50. Previous warmest February on record was 48.8 in 1991. Then add in days with warm highs and milder lows like yesterday and the torchy string of lows early in the month and you have a recipe for top warm February in many spots, which it will likely be.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hasn't the GFS been nippy in the long range for a couple weeks now?

No not really.

[BLI snowman]

True, but in general the jet's gonna be weaker. I always wonder too why people refer to the jet as migrating north or south. It doesn't really do that on a seasonal basis, just weakens/intensifies, lengthens/shortens.

 

Migrates probably isn't the right word as there is no set path, but obviously the change in seasons and baroclinic zone involvement means a general latitudinal difference in where the storms end up in the coming weeks.

[Jesse]

No not really.

Just a week ago this coming week looked downright nipply!

[BLI snowman]

Anyone else anxiously awaiting the January PDO update!??

[richard mann]

(.. connected to what I'd said above.)

 

.. The boarder IR parameter picture at 12z overnight last night.

 

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/IGCM-12152015046.jpg

[Deweydog]

Anyone else anxiously awaiting the January PDO update!??

2.02.

[richard mann]

Anyone else anxiously awaiting the January PDO update!??

I'd just been going to say. .. About our only hope for a "better" later, later Winter and Spring.

 

— Apart from or with, enough decent radiational cooling.

[BLI snowman]

2.02.

 

I'll say 1.78. Definitely should've gone down a bit.

 

We also had the 7th consecutive +PNA January!

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just a week ago this coming week looked downright nipply!

 

Not really. There was some hint at retrogression blah...Nothing meaningful, nothing consistent, and definitely nothing like the GFS has been showing the past couple days for the long range. 

 

Who knows, maybe it will trend back to the default pattern, but what the models were showing a week ago wasn't much, just some SW hype. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'll say 1.78. Definitely should've gone down a bit.

 

We also had the 7th consecutive +PNA January!

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

 

One has to wonder when this cold phase will end.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The wife and kids are out in Oklahoma right now. They are going to see a healthy snowfall tonight!

 

Looks like the precip just started where they are at. Light rain 32 degrees with a dp of 13 and 12mph NE winds. 

[Jesse]

Not really. There was some hint at retrogression blah...Nothing meaningful, nothing consistent, and definitely nothing like the GFS has been showing the past couple days for the long range. 

 

Who knows, maybe it will trend back to the default pattern, but what the models were showing a week ago wasn't much, just some SW hype. 

 

Good point. Day 12 is certainly looking awesome on the 18Z. Bank on it!

 

If you look objectively, a pattern change looks no more promising now than one did two weeks ago. Only difference is that now there seems to be support from the EURO weeklies, but they have been very hit or miss this year.

[Deweydog]

I'll say 1.78. Definitely should've gone down a bit.

 

We also had the 7th consecutive +PNA January!

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

Good thing with the PNA. Would have been pretty demoralizing if the PNA was negative during such a ridgy month.

[Jesse]

One has to wonder when this cold phase will end.

 

But Boston!

[Deweydog]

Good point. Day 12 is certainly looking great on the 18Z. Bank on it!

 

If you look objectively, a pattern change looks no more promising now than one did two weeks ago. Only difference is that now there seems to be support from the EURO weeklies, but they have been very hit or miss this year.

Change is coming. Soon.

 

Catch the fever, pensive one!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Change is coming. Soon.

 

Catch the fever, pensive one!

 

Change came to Salem this week. 

 

http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2015/02/bisexuals_hopeful_as_1_of_thei.html#incart_most-read_

[SilverFallsAndrew]

But Boston!

 

Its been intense over there!

[Deweydog]

Change came to Salem this week.

 

http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2015/02/bisexuals_hopeful_as_1_of_thei.html#incart_most-read_

I love how that aspect is the most nationalized one of this whole saga.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Thickness drops to 520 at SLE on the 18z!

[Jesse]

Change is coming. Soon.

 

Catch the fever, pensive one!

Should set us up nicely for another toasty Summer/Fall!

[Front Ranger]

A 64/36 day like PDX is on track for today is still record warm Feb territory.

 

Average daily temp of 50. Previous warmest February on record was 48.8 in 1991. Then add in days with warm highs and milder lows like yesterday and the torchy string of lows early in the month and you have a recipe for top warm February in many spots, which it will likely be.

 

Guess it depends on where you're looking.

 

55/32 at BLI today, for average temp of 43.5.

 

55/29 at OLM, average temp of 42.

 

And today is warmer than what much of the 12z Euro showed. The second half of the month will likely end up cooler than the first half, thanks to colder lows. 

[BLI snowman]

Good thing with the PNA. Would have been pretty demoralizing if the PNA was negative during such a ridgy month.

 

It was actually negative in January 1994. Not sure how. Incredibly demoralizing month.

[Deweydog]

Should set us up nicely for another toasty Summer/Fall!

Eat a Snickers, Marcia.

[Deweydog]

It was actually negative in January 1994. Not sure how. Incredibly demoralizing month.

Got fairly chilly late in the month didn't it? Also set the table for a nice wet snow event in late February.

[seattleweatherguy]

march prediction we will get a cool pattern allowing some mountain snow! We may have one small shot of snow showers though I will go out on a limb and say March 2nd and march 15th will be our best chance.