February 2015 PNW Discussion

[BLI snowman]

And yet, many places in the Northeast have a good shot at their coldest February in the past 100+ years.

 

Then there was last year. Somehow the U.S. pulled this off.

 

AnnDec14TDeptUS.png

 

 

Fact of the matter is, you would care much less about the global temp if the PNW was experiencing cold anomalies. I know this is true because I've seen it in action

 

FWIW, 1996 was the last time the U.S. had a cooler than average year. Lots of snow with that one!

[Front Ranger]

FWIW, 1996 was the last time the U.S. had a cooler than average year. Lots of snow with that one!

 

Cooler than the 20th century average, yes.

 

And yet, there's this: http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2014/06/25/government-data-show-u-s-in-decade-long-cooling/

 

Just goes to show that global temps have little effect on regional or even national temperature trends. A number of locations in the U.S. actually saw their coldest year on record in 2014, including Dubuque, Iowa, with records back to the mid 1800s. In addition, 2014 was the second straight year with more cold records than warm records nationally.

[Deweydog]

Cooler than the 20th century average, yes.

 

And yet, there's this: http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2014/06/25/government-data-show-u-s-in-decade-long-cooling/

 

Just goes to show that global temps have little effect on regional or even national temperature trends. A number of locations in the U.S. actually saw their coldest year on record in 2014, including Dubuque, Iowa, with records back to the mid 1800s. In addition, 2014 was the second straight year with more cold records than warm records nationally.

 

Do you think the 19th century averages would be warmer?  

[Deweydog]

And yet, many places in the Northeast have a good shot at their coldest February in the past 100+ years.

 

Then there was last year. Somehow the U.S. pulled this off.

 

AnnDec14TDeptUS.png

 

 

Fact of the matter is, you would care much less about the global temp if the PNW was experiencing cold anomalies. I know this is true because I've seen it in action

 

Pffffft.  That's just because the pattern back there has been cold.  Our warmth is much more global.  

[Deweydog]

***It's snowing in Boston***

[BLI snowman]

Cooler than the 20th century average, yes.

 

And yet, there's this: http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2014/06/25/government-data-show-u-s-in-decade-long-cooling/

 

Just goes to show that global temps have little effect on regional or even national temperature trends. A number of locations in the U.S. actually saw their coldest year on record in 2014, including Dubuque, Iowa, with records back to the mid 1800s. In addition, 2014 was the second straight year with more cold records than warm records nationally.

 

Cooler than the 1895-2014 average.

 

Since 1996, the closest years to being legitimately cold were 1997 and 2008.  Warmest year on record for the country in 2012. 

 

1998-2004 was a slightly warmer stretch nationally than 2008-2014, but that still isn't saying much yet. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z is running!

[Rustysprocket]

Brought to you by Crayola.

 

MS Paint, spray paint tool.

[weather girl]

Its only 2 weeks away, what could go wrong.

 

winterinmarch.png

Right after winter. Just like clock work.

[MossMan]

18z is running!

How did it look?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

How did it look?

Not as good as the 12z. Still a period of Mountain snow in the long range.

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/817-later-winter-2014-15-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/

[Abbotsford_wx]

A "crisp" 52.5F here today. It's mostly clear now after starting out rather cloudy.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Today was pretty amazing. I got so much done in the yard today. I'm starting to think this pattern is going to break down at some point at least for a couple of weeks. Probably enough to salvage something of a snow pack, but this year is going to go down as a 1976-77 type snow pack disaster. 

[stuffradio]

A "crisp" 52.5F here today. It's mostly clear now after starting out rather cloudy.

No clearing here, but it did stop raining.

[Parksvillewx]

Was cloudy until about 10am here then cleared out. Turned in to a great day. Went out in the woods with a friend and did some target shooting. T-Shirt weather.

[HighlandExperience]

This type of sensationalization was predictable  :

 

NASA warns of 'Megadroughts' for the West that will last for decades

 

http://unofficialnetworks.com/2015/02/nasa-warns-of-megadroughts-for-the-west-that-will-last-for-decades

[richard mann]

Better the prediction you know.

[stuffradio]

There was a Mag 3.5 earthquake at 8:12 PM just off the shore kind of by UBC I think.

[luminen]

There was a Mag 3.5 earthquake at 8:12 PM just off the shore kind of by UBC I think.

 

Mini-tsunami for the people on Wreck Beach? 

[stuffradio]

Mini-tsunami for the people on Wreck Beach? 

I don't think you can get one from a magnitude that small.

[Tyler Mode]

Finally dropped to freezing here in Battle Ground.  First time since January 31st.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

06z isn't bad.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty funny... the top 2 analogs for the 00Z GFS run were from early February of 1989 and 2003.   I think the results were a little different... no?

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs610.gif

[stuffradio]

CFSv2 is cold next month still. This time though the parts of the PNW along the NW border are borderline drier than normal instead of wet.

[TT-SEA]

Cherry trees blooming in North Bend this morning...

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looks like winter is going to hit us right on schedule, at the beginning of March. Seems like the cycle of explosive Nor'easters is about to wind down (no pun intended).

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Cherry trees blooming in North Bend this morning...

 

 

Amazing how clear the sky is today, February sun is burning away what's little left of the cloud bank out here. Not sad to see inversion season on its way out.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Going to work on the lawn today. Winter arrives in 2 to 3 weeks!

[Jesse]

At least more places will likely see freezing low temps this week. There is a fairly cool airmass east side and there will be some Gorge outflow that will lower dps. Afternoons will still be very warm, of course.

 

Could not believe how ahead of the curve the phenology was at the coast yesterday. Daffodils blooming everywhere and tons of trees blossoming as well. It was mild in Pacific City, upper 50s.

[Jesse]

12Z EURO is a step in the right direction, with ridging centered slightly farther offshore starting late next week. The same was looking true for this weekend just 4-5 days ago, though.

[Front Ranger]

12Z EURO is a step in the right direction, with ridging centered slightly farther offshore starting late next week. The same was looking true for this weekend just 4-5 days ago, though.

 

That's two decent runs in a row from the Euro.

 

GFS is not as favorable with the ridge placement, though the 12z GFS was a little better than some previous runs.

[Front Ranger]

OLM and McChord both made it to 29 this morning. BLI hit freezing for the first time this month.

[Deweydog]

OLM and McChord both made it to 29 this morning. BLI hit freezing for the first time this month.

34 here this morning. It'll seem a lot colder when it happens in April.

[Jesse]

Temperature profiles this February have behaved almost identically to a typical March.

[Jesse]

18Z looking ridgier. 

 

Warmest February on record for many spots grows more likely by the day.

[BLI snowman]

Temperature profiles this February have behaved almost identically to a typical March.

 

Even for March it's been rather warm. Average high here thus far has been about 55, March's average max is 51.

[Jesse]

Even for March it's been rather warm. Average high here thus far has been about 55, March's average max is 51.

 

Did you hear how cold it is back east though?/??

[Jesse]

PDX up to 63.

[TT-SEA]

Even for March it's been rather warm. Average high here thus far has been about 55, March's average max is 51.

February always seems nicer than March.

 

Maybe it's just expectations go up each month.