WildWisconsinWeather Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Boy, 12z Euro Ensembles trending colder Day 10-15. Below you can see the Day 10-15 Mean 500mb pattern below. Notice that sneaky "east based" Greenland Block starting to come into the picture. I think you're about the only one rooting for more cold in March. Why aren't you just looking forward to spring? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 I think you're about the only one rooting for more cold in March. Why aren't you just looking forward to spring?Just stating the facts...one of the big reason's why I'll be heading somewhere warm next month. Spring around here won't be pretty. I'll be looking forward to be sitting poolside in sunny AZ next month while I see posts of Spring snows on this forum! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 00z GFS is insane for KS.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Nice high pressure just sitting there ruining everything for a north trend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Might start a separate Thread for this system that looks to be over a period of 2-3 days....looking interesting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Nice high pressure just sitting there ruining everything for a north trendNot so fast, this may eventually become a 2-part system....1st piece on Sat/Sun, then a stronger one on Mon/Tue... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Come north young man. Gfs 00z is spreading the love again to southern half of Nebraska. Map looking similar to 4 days ago. Wow. Just when I try to go to sleep gfs wakes me. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 00z GFS trying to phase the energy left back in the SW as it ejects out into the Plains. About this time is when the Euro had the NAO head towards neutral. Might have some notable blocking to slow and allow this system to dig. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Not so fast, this may eventually become a 2-part system....1st piece on Sat/Sun, then a stronger one on Mon/Tue...i havent seen the mon/tue system yet. the run isnt out that far....not on the NOAA site anyway Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Love having multiple systems to track. Been a while. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 i havent seen the mon/tue system yet. the run isnt out that far....not on the NOAA site anywayHere you go... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Thanks tom. Let's spread this to everyone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 KANSAS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 The 2nd piece: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_165_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 NOW i see the 2nd system......http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_159_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Very active pattern setting up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Can someone post a snow map after the 2nd system is done? Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 All of Iowa is in the 14+ range by the time the 3rd system is done (clipper, 1st, 2nd) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 On phone-- loving the trends--- people will REALLY be bitching if the above comes true. SPREAD THE WHITE LOVE!! 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Started a Thread for the 3/1 - 3/3 system... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Could be rain with the 3rd storm it seems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 hope it will be nice in arizona and florida for spring traning for the mlb because spring training has started now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 hope it will be nice in arizona and florida for spring traning for the mlb because spring training has started now.FL looks golden with the SE Ridge, AZ may have some storm systems here and there but that is expected in early March. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Classic -EPO look on the 00z GFS...Ol' Man Winter ain't letting go anytime soon this year. If that -NAO develops stronger and holds, good luck seeing any signs of Spring. Depending on where the storm track sets up next week..some ppl in the Plains/Midwest/Great Lakes may not get above 32F till mid March. Now the 00z GFS starting to see the Greenland Block.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Just stating the facts...one of the big reason's why I'll be heading somewhere warm next month. Spring around here won't be pretty. I'll be looking forward to be sitting poolside in sunny AZ next month while I see posts of Spring snows on this forum! Are you in retirement already? How do you have this flexibility? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yerf Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Total snowfall between now and Sunday night from the GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Woah, overnight runs of the GFS/EURO now showing a -AO/NAO developing as we roll into March along with a consistently -EPO. We haven't had this type of Trio all season long and to see them mirage together in March could spell a memorable month. If everything aligns just right, we could be seeing another record setting March for cold/snow. March '58 repeat???? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Might have another repeat year next year if the JAMSTEC is right....cooler than normal SST's hugging the East Coast would suggest a trough. Another fast start to winter is on the table next season with these SST's.Sounds good to me, as long as December will not be a blowtorch like last year of 2014. Not a flake to be seen and temps felt like it was October or early November. A waste of a winter month down the toilet. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 The Easter Bunny may be burrowing through snow this year! CFSv2 continues to show a chill 45 day period and a much below normal pattern to open April. Wouldn't be surprised if Opening Day for baseball season is a chilly one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 What a pattern if this unfolds the way the 12z Euro Ensembles are seeing it. Day 8 (next arctic blast), Day 12 and Day 15 show a continuation of Winter weather. Classic Greenland Block develops Day 12-15. This month may get pretty wild as we roll on through March. I think a lot of us are going to endure a March never seen in years to be quite honest. If your a winter weather fan and love meteorology, the way the atmosphere is setting up this month is quiet amazing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'm wondering how the Super Bowl storm develops in the LRC's 4th cycle this month. Target period is sometime mid month when models are showing some good blocking around that time frame. Another Blizzard repeat???? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted February 26, 2015 Report Share Posted February 26, 2015 Woah, overnight runs of the GFS/EURO now showing a -AO/NAO developing as we roll into March along with a consistently -EPO. We haven't had this type of Trio all season long and to see them mirage together in March could spell a memorable month. If everything aligns just right, we could be seeing another record setting March for cold/snow. March '58 repeat????What was so special about March 1958? If you're talking about a March 1960 repeat, then there's 0 chance of that happening ever again for the CONUS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 26, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2015 What was so special about March 1958? If you're talking about a March 1960 repeat, then there's 0 chance of that happening ever again for the CONUS.It's one of the top coldest March's in recent memory for alot of the Central CONUS. JB is using that year along with 1960 as one of his analogs and Climate Models are pointing to something similar. http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/cd73_52_79_128_50_12_56_9_prcp.png Maxim, anything is possible and saying there is a 0% chance of that happening isn't wise. You wouldn't be a good gambler if that was the case. Last year ORD ended up having the coldest Nov-Mar on Record and nobody believed it would happen, it did. This year our Winter is obviously back loaded with snow/cold. For goodness sakes, we are breaking 75+ year records and might break another 131 year old record Saturday morning! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted February 26, 2015 Report Share Posted February 26, 2015 It's one of the top coldest March's in recent memory for alot of the Central CONUS. JB is using that year along with 1960 as one of his analogs and Climate Models are pointing to something similar. http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/cd73_52_79_128_50_12_56_9_prcp.png Maxim, anything is possible and saying there is a 0% chance of that happening isn't wise. You wouldn't be a good gambler if that was the case. Last year ORD ended up having the coldest Nov-Mar on Record and nobody believed it would happen, it did. This year our Winter is obviously back loaded with snow/cold. For goodness sakes, we are breaking 75+ year records and might break another 131 year old record Saturday morning!Well sure, anything is possible. It's technically possible that the Earth could crash into the sun tomorrow, but to suggest that this March could possibly end up as a March 1960 redux is like saying one of us could win the lottery next week. Sure, it's possible, but the likelihood of it happening is extremely low. March 1960 was by far the coldest and most severe March for a good chunk of the CONUS. It was essentially the opposite of March 2012 (which will also probably never happen again.) March 1960 had persistent blocking on a different level. The pattern kept repeating, whether it be from a Scandinavian block or another type of block form. There were many occasions of snow falling in the deep south. The cold-air damming was recurrent too. It was so strong that it allowed snow to be predominant a couple times down into the Carolinas, and not ice. Freezing rain also reached the coast of Georgia and SC. There was also at least one storm that turned into a 970 mb nor'easter (March 4), along with many instances of clippers and disturbances/ULL that moved through the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic that would drop measurable snow. Can't forget about that split-flow pattern and massive high pressure ridges straight from Canada that dominated mid-month too. Once again, even suggesting that a repeat of that month may occur for March of 2015 would be pretty unwise IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 26, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2015 I said a repeat of March 1958 NOT 1960...but thanks anyway for the detailed explanation of the weather pattern in March 1960. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted February 26, 2015 Report Share Posted February 26, 2015 I said a repeat of March 1958 NOT 1960...but thanks anyway for the detailed explanation of the weather pattern in March 1960.Oh, I realize that. I'm just saying that it WOULD be unwise if you (or anyone for that matter) were holding your breath for a repeat of 1960. I don't have enough information about March 1958, so can't say anything about that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 26, 2015 Report Share Posted February 26, 2015 I said a repeat of March 1958 NOT 1960...but thanks anyway for the detailed explanation of the weather pattern in March 1960. Your probably like...what the heck??!! Am I writing French here?! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 26, 2015 Report Share Posted February 26, 2015 GFS back to craptastic in the long range i see. Signs of a real pattern change. Just a mirage I am sure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 26, 2015 Report Share Posted February 26, 2015 HMMM GFS ensembles look blah and average as far as temps go to. Not sure about the cryptic cold call Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted February 26, 2015 Report Share Posted February 26, 2015 HMMM GFS ensembles look blah and average as far as temps go to. Not sure about the cryptic cold callyeah, I'm not seeing a torch, but not sure what was up with those hyped up cold calls. Looks pretty average to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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