February 2014 in the PNW

[FroYoBro]

no way they go to 41 tomorrow.

I wouldn't be surprised to see PDX hit 40 tomorrow. Tomorrow is a tricky forecast. If the east wind takes a while to get going, the sun could get us fairly warm tomorrow. Tough call. 

[epiceast]

00z GEM doesn't seem to dig the trough over us nearly as much as previous runs. Similar to the NCEP 00z GFS. Hmmm...

Post MAPS!

[snow_wizard]

The Canadian keeps it notably colder in WA on Sunday than previous runs. We still have NE wind gradients and 528 thickness. Oregon may be the big winner for snow though. This is such a big change that we'll have to see a few more runs to know what's really going on. Looking more likely somebody will have some serious snow though.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This is by far the most interesting run, especially if this low can reinforce the modified cold air + lock in low elevations into the freezer with snow cover. All of the overrunning ones were 33 in one way or another, with none amounting to much more than December's transition storm.

 

Yes I dont understand why people are upset with this. Could be huge.

[Gradient Keeper]

Not as cold, but that isn't necessarily a bad thing either.

[snow_wizard]

wouldn't surprise me. Would put most places around 31 32. I was 36 at work today in port orchard.

It would shock me. 850s are way colder later in the week than they were today. It would make no sense to only have it 5 degrees colder than today. I still say people are going to be surprised by how cold this ends up.

[epiceast]

Yes I dont understand why people are upset with this. Could be huge.

Just re-read my post, the censorship of bad words is quite witty here

[snow_wizard]

The 00z still shows the overrunning event, so no worries even if this run were to verify.

IMO the run is a wash for the Seattle area. Less moisture, but the cold hangs on longer. The Canadian is dangerously close to something that could end up really good.

[Snow]

00z GEM BIG SNOWSTORM for PDX Friday Night.

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_096.jpg

[TT-SEA]

The Canadian keeps it notably colder in WA on Sunday than previous runs. We still have NE wind gradients and 528 thickness. Oregon may be the big winner for snow though. This is such a big change that we'll have to see a few more runs to know what's really going on. Looking more likely somebody will have some serious snow though.

 

I love the trend of keeping it colder.

[TT-SEA]

Seriously??

 

No precip up here through the entire weekend?

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg

[Gradient Keeper]

"Warmer" , but still plenty cold and importantly, air mass over the Gorge and Columbia Basin looks just every bit as cold, and WRF shows we keep more easterly gradient Thursday and Friday. Previous runs nearly killed that. Hmm....the fact the gradient keeps going we'll be very cold.

[epiceast]

Wow the GEM looks to be at least an inch for PDX based of that one frame, probably more like 3. Only if the moisture went further north of the low.

[FroYoBro]

The Canadian gives Portland two snowstorms. This is going to be a close call over the next few days. WEENIE HEART ATTACK.

[epiceast]

Well I just copied the link and wen through the frames over the weekend. It seems like a solid 25mm+ of liquid, so over a foot for portland? I don't see any reason for precipitation to be anything other than snow.

[Jesse]

Any warmer trend like this will initially start out looking like a good thing. "Durrr-it's warmer but we get more snow!"

 

Watch, now that the general pattern the models had been showing up until tonight has been warmed so drastically, the models will only continue warming. The whole thing will probably dig offshore and we will be left with warm SW flow and rain up to the ski resorts.

[epiceast]

Any warmer trend like this will initially start out looking like a good thing. "Durrr-it's warmer but we get more snow!"

 

Watch, now that the general pattern the models had been showing up until tonight has been warmed so drastically, the models will only continue warming. The whole thing will probably dig offshore and we will be left with warm SW flow and rain up to the ski resorts.

As opposed to nothing?

[Snow]

Well I just copied the link and wen through the frames over the weekend. It seems like a solid 25mm+ of liquid, so over a foot for portland? I don't see any reason for precipitation to be anything other than snow.

 

If the low tracks south of PDX it will be all snow, so yea over a foot.

[epiceast]

If the low tracks south of PDX it will be all snow, so yea over a foot.

It seems like it to me, unless there is another low in a missing frame that goes a lot further north than central Oregon coast. Btw if you live in Pyuallup and low tracks to your south you can still get a bit of nothing/rain thanks to SE downslope winds when everyone else is getting snow. I'm sure there is an uninhabited location like that in Willamette valley too.

[TT-SEA]

Any warmer trend like this will initially start out looking like a good thing. "Durrr-it's warmer but we get more snow!"

 

Watch, now that the general pattern the models had been showing up until tonight has been warmed so drastically, the models will only continue warming. The whole thing will probably dig offshore and we will be left with warm SW flow and rain up to the ski resorts.

 

Wow.

[Snow]

It seems like it to me, unless there is another low in a missing frame that goes a lot further north than central Oregon coast. Btw if you live in Pyuallup and low tracks to your south you can still get a bit of nothing/rain thanks to SE downslope winds when everyone else is getting snow. I'm sure there is an uninhabited location like that in Willamette valley too.

 

Yeah we have that here in the Valley in Milwaukie.

[Guest Monty67]

Any warmer trend like this will initially start out looking like a good thing. "Durrr-it's warmer but we get more snow!"

 

Watch, now that the general pattern the models had been showing up until tonight has been warmed so drastically, the models will only continue warming. The whole thing will probably dig offshore and we will be left with warm SW flow and rain up to the ski resorts.

.  Wait are you serious.  Are you about to have a breakdown?

[Timmy]

Any warmer trend like this will initially start out looking like a good thing. "Durrr-it's warmer but we get more snow!"

 

Watch, now that the general pattern the models had been showing up until tonight has been warmed so drastically, the models will only continue warming. The whole thing will probably dig offshore and we will be left with warm SW flow and rain up to the ski resorts.

Did Andrew hack your account?

[Jesse]

63 degree rain for PDX on the long range 00Z!

[Gradient Keeper]

Wait. What?

[epiceast]

can we report Jesse for trolling?

[Guest Monty67]

Its all over but they crying.  Until maybe late month.

[Jesse]

can we report Jesse for trolling?

 

It seriously does. Look at the output yourself.

[Weather101]

. Wait are you serious. Are you about to have a breakdown?

[Weather101]

So winter canceled?

[The Swamp]

It seriously does. Look at the output yourself.

Advanced Member.  

[Snow]

00z GEM has 2 snowstorms for PDX, 1 on Friday night and an even bigger one of Sunday. I will take that.

[East Dubzz]

Lol all you guys are funny.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This place is getting wierd.

[Guest Monty67]

63 degree rain for PDX on the long range 00Z!

Looks over done. Unlikely they top 60F.

 

I think maybe you have been putting a little too much weight in the ensemble mean for short term forecasting the last few days. Its still going to be very cold and windy in the gorge. As for snow, probably some of that too, sometime between Friday night and sunday. It will all work out in the end for you.

[Gradient Keeper]

This place is getting wierd.

Just a bit.

[whitechristmas]

Is this comedy night? What's going on? Now we have 2 snowstorms for PDX, 63 and rain in LR, 0Z GFS is freakin' out, winter cancel, a foot of snow for PDX, and the cold spell is now not so cold. How can all this happen in such a short time???

[Jesse]

Looks over done. Unlikely they top 60F.

 

I think maybe you have been putting a little too much weight in the ensemble mean for short term forecasting the last few days. Its still going to be very cold and windy in the gorge. As for snow, probably some of that too, sometime between Friday night and sunday. It will all work out in the end for you.

 

Not really. The WRF, EURO and Canadian were all pretty solid on a major cold outbreak. Even the operational GFS came around the last few days. Until tonight. And now the Canadian is following it.

 

Just feels like the whole thing is falling apart on us all of a sudden, and to add insult to injury certain people are rubbing it in. Maybe it would be best if I just stopped posting for the night.

[brody]

So winter canceled?

You know it

[Guest Monty67]

Is this comedy night? What's going on? Now we have 2 snowstorms for PDX, 63 and rain in LR, 0Z GFS is freakin' out, winter cancel, a foot of snow for PDX, and the cold spell is now not so cold. How can all this happen in such a short time???

Probably global warming interacting with the polar vortex, and something about a rossby wave-train.