luvssnow_spokane Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Sun angle is not a real problem until mid to late May. of course because they used to get some amazing snowstorm in May back in the 1600's so I really think we are due!! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 So, did the Euro stay as cold as previous runs, or did it move toward the GFS? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 On the ECMWF at hour 75 cold not as far south but penetrating a bit deeper westward. Still chilly just less southward movement. WA stays cold. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 An exciting snow pic from my backyard this evening! 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 So, did the Euro stay as cold as previous runs, or did it move toward the GFS?It looks a little warmer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 So what's going on guys? Mixed comments lol Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Out to hour 99 on EURO it looks like low pressure is heading right toward the WA/OR boarder.. Still to soon on the run to know for sure. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Out to hour 99 on EURO it looks like low pressure is heading right toward the WA/OR boarder.. Still to soon on the run to know for sure.Thats the sweet spot for up here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Euro doesn't show anything on Thursday or Friday down south. No low. No precip. Faster with the overrunning storm on Saturday though, Portland is getting snow on Saturday morning now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Sounds like there was some new twist in the 00z data this afternoon that made all of the 00z runs go decidedly warmer at the last minute. Bummer... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Sounds like there was some new twist in the 00z data this afternoon that made all of the 00z runs go decidedly warmer at the last minute. Bummer...How warm? And what twist? Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Well this is just a great forum tonight. As much fun as it is to say how much we dislike snow and would prefer it on December 25 between 12:00 a.m. (because we don't want to have to drive home from a Christmas Eve party in the snow) and 7:00 a.m. (because we want the roads to be clear for a Christmas party later in the day) can we keep these posts to a minimum. Just a suggestion as people can post whatever they want, but it seems depressing to talk about how winter should just end on January 1 because we are close enough to spring that it doesn't matter anymore and if we get snow it might be too wet or too short lived or too white or too heavy... I don't care if it snows in February or March or October or July as long as there is snow because snow is amazing to experience and we don't get very many chances to enjoy it. 4 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Sounds like there was some new twist in the 00z data this afternoon that made all of the 00z runs go decidedly warmer at the last minute. Bummer...Euro is still pretty D**n cold. It won't make a huge difference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 00z ECMWF colder than GFS, no Friday system and overrunning system is earlier. PDX starts seeing snow around 2am-4am Saturday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Well this is just a great forum tonight. As much fun as it is to say how much we dislike snow and would prefer it on December 25 between 12:00 a.m. (because we don't want to have to drive home from a Christmas Eve party in the snow) and 7:00 a.m. (because we want the roads to be clear for a Christmas party later in the day) can we keep these posts to a minimum. Just a suggestion as people can post whatever they want, but it seems depressing to talk about how winter should just end on January 1 because we are close enough to spring that it doesn't matter anymore and if we get snow it might be too wet or too short lived or too white or too heavy... I don't care if it snows in February or March or October or July as long as there is snow because snow is amazing to experience and we don't get very many chances to enjoy it. Stop wasting space on here with opinions. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Hmmm I still think I'll be cold enough for a overrunning event for us tho!?In order for overrunning item 1 must over run item 2. You'll have #2. Me thinks #1 not so much. Things are going to start shifting north though as this cold push fizzles. You could end up the big winner. Stay tuned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 ECMWF looks more the Canadian for the weekend. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 00z EURO -14c PDX Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 In order for overrunning item 1 must over run item 2. You'll have #2. Me thinks #1 not so much. Things are going to start shifting north though as this cold push fizzles. You could end up the big winner. Stay tuned.Haha thank you! Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 00z EURO -14c PDX-16c in Seattle Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 00z EURO -14c PDX I hope Jesse takes his noose down, now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Quick snow event for Seattle on the 00Z ECMWF on Saturday morning. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Quick snow event for Seattle on the 00Z ECMWF on Saturday morning. yeah super quick... Epic and memorable I am sure. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Well this is just a great forum tonight. As much fun as it is to say how much we dislike snow and would prefer it on December 25 between 12:00 a.m. (because we don't want to have to drive home from a Christmas Eve party in the snow) and 7:00 a.m. (because we want the roads to be clear for a Christmas party later in the day) can we keep these posts to a minimum. Just a suggestion as people can post whatever they want, but it seems depressing to talk about how winter should just end on January 1 because we are close enough to spring that it doesn't matter anymore and if we get snow it might be too wet or too short lived or too white or too heavy... I don't care if it snows in February or March or October or July as long as there is snow because snow is amazing to experience and we don't get very many chances to enjoy it.I think bars close at 2 am, right? Should move that up to 3 or 4 am, we'll assume most of the posters are responsible and taking public transit that runs once during owl hours or a taxi. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Quick snow event for Seattle on the 00Z ECMWF on Saturday morning.Actually what the 00z Euro is showing is one of the best outlooks I have seen. According to the Wundermap, precipitation stays snow from 10 a.m. Saturday till about 2 a.m. Sunday. I would take that and yes it would be epic and memorable. Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 I can't make any judgments really until 12z suite of runs tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Actually what the 00z Euro is showing is one of the best outlooks I have seen. According to the Wundermap, precipitation stays snow from 10 a.m. Saturday till about 2 a.m. Sunday. I would take that and yes it would be epic and memorable. Yeah, love the 00z Euro for us North Sounders. Great all day event on Saturday. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 So after a whole bunch of pages tonight what's the conclusion? Reading them all its hard to understand who gets what. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yeah, love the 00z Euro for us North Sounders. Great all day event on Saturday. enjoy! At least some gets snow for a few hours on this run. I hope things can improve for everyone. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whitechristmas Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Rod Hill says potential for 6" on Saturday for PDX. Is this realistic guys (and gals)? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Model riding has really been turned up a few thousand notches now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parksvillewx Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Euro 10AM Saturday. stopping 10AM sunday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Actually what the 00z Euro is showing is one of the best outlooks I have seen. According to the Wundermap, precipitation stays snow from 10 a.m. Saturday till about 2 a.m. Sunday. I would take that and yes it would be epic and memorable.Could I get a link to the wundermap? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 So after a whole bunch of pages tonight what's the conclusion? Reading them all its hard to understand who gets what.Basically people had no clue what was going to happen next weekend because we can't trust the models and now the models have proven that they really can't be trusted. What we know is that it will get cold and most people will probably see at least one snowflake in the next week. Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 I just read this, this explains why the GFS showed such a new trend tonight. http://www.intelligentutility.com/blog/14/01/weather-model-differences-between-gfs-american-and-ecmwf-european?quicktabs_4=1 WINTER WEATHER SKILL1 Day Ahead: GFS is better2 Days Ahead: Average of GFS and ECMWF is bestDays 3 and Beyond: ECMWF has higher skill GFSOnce a month, GFS has “dropouts”, where the forecast is a major fail, a major outlier, and very divergent from the ECMWF, which does not have dropouts. GFS scientists are trying to fix dropouts through better initializations. One proposal is to use ECMWF initializations (better quality satellite observations), which would lower dropouts by 90%, but solutions are taking time. There are some other key stuff. Tonights GFS will not verify. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Euro 10AM Saturday. euro114.jpg stopping 10AM sunday euro138.jpg omg!!! 3 inches of snow at my house before it turns to rain... I am beyond excited. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Could I get a link to the wundermap? http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/beta/?lat=48.43156&lon=-121.49358&zoom=6&type=terrain&units=english&tl.play=0&tl.spd=2&viewportstart=now-5600&viewportend=now-2000&groupSevere=1&groupHurricane=1&groupFire=1&groupCamsPhotos=1&groupRealEstate=1&eyedropper=0&extremes=0&fault=0&favs=0&femaflood=0&fire=0&firewfas=0&fissures=0&fronts=0&hurrevac=0&hur=0&labels=0&lightning=0&livesurge=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=ECMWF&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=111&mm.opa=100&ndfd=0&rad=0&dir=1&dir.mode=driving&sst=0&sat=0&seismicrisk=0&svr=0&ski=0&snowfall=0&stormreports=0&tor=0&tfk=0&tsunami=0&riv=0&wxsn=0&cams=0&pix=0 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parksvillewx Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 omg!!! 3 inches of snow at my house before it turns to rain... I am beyond excited. lol. you forgot the "/sarcasm" at the end! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whitechristmas Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Euro 10AM Saturday. euro114.jpg stopping 10AM sunday euro138.jpg Can you post these maps for us PDXers? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 lol. you forgot the "/sarcasm" at the end! oops! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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