Weather101 Posted February 6, 2014 Report Share Posted February 6, 2014 Holy crap... total precip from tomorrow afternoon through late Saturday night. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_081_precip_p60.gif Amazing gradient. Is that like 25 inches of snow in Salem and Eugene?If only this trends north.. Amazing Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 6, 2014 Report Share Posted February 6, 2014 Yeah. In all honestly I don't think the extreme nature of the arctic air over Northern Oregon and Washington would physically allow the low itself to track in any farther north than Eugene. Like Dewey and bb-kid were saying earlier today, this thing busting warm and wet for anyone north of Roseburg is off the table at this point. The only bust would be dry and cold. I agree... this is a different set-up and I think there is a limit to the northward trend this time. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 6, 2014 Report Share Posted February 6, 2014 My feeling is that the Saturday system will trend a bit north too, just a gut feeling though. One thing people need to keep in mind is the tendency for things to "trend" north is a detail-specific phenomenon. Doesn't mean it won't happen, but this situation is missing most, if not all the variables one would expect to cause models to tend to flub up trajectories. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 6, 2014 Report Share Posted February 6, 2014 Not surprising a bunch of California yuppies would plant palms. We just need a good old fashioned January to take care of it. This cold snap will probably take out a few.I ******* hate those trees up here in this part of the world. I hope they all die. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted February 6, 2014 Report Share Posted February 6, 2014 One thing people need to keep in mind is the tendency for things to "trend" north is a detail-specific phenomenon. Doesn't mean it won't happen, but this situation is missing most, if not all, the variables cause models to tend to flub up trajectories.But it can still budge a bit north Saturday still? Would be perfect Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 6, 2014 Report Share Posted February 6, 2014 Horse Creek which is 7 miles east of me is already down to 8. Wanderer's Peak to my NE is down to -1. 22 PDX, 23 Silverton, 24 SLE. DP's in the single digits. Hard to imagine it getting out of the 20s tomorrow anywhere north of Albany. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 6, 2014 Report Share Posted February 6, 2014 Big time. They won't even be able to get in and out of Salem or Eugene. Literally. Are there any historical examples of this type of extreme gradient from our weather history experts? Jan 1930, Dec 1919 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 6, 2014 Report Share Posted February 6, 2014 I ******* hate those trees up here in this part of the world. I hope they all die. I think we got it now. We are talking about an epic event in Oregon. Not the landscaping choice of people in Kirkland. That was a topic when the NAM was coming out and showing nothing for anyone. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 6, 2014 Report Share Posted February 6, 2014 But it can still budge a bit north Saturday still? Would be perfect Nothing says it can't, but at this point the message is the westerlies simply don't have all that much punch. Most of the moisture for the weekend is still associated with what will essentially be a stalled/weakening Arctic front somewhere over Oregon. The aggressive warm advection idea has put shelved for now. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 6, 2014 Report Share Posted February 6, 2014 Horse Creek which is 7 miles east of me is already down to 8. Wanderer's Peak to my NE is down to -1. 22 PDX, 23 Silverton, 24 SLE. DP's in the single digits. Hard to imagine it getting out of the 20s tomorrow anywhere north of Albany.No way PDX gets out of the 20's. Hopefully it is due to snow fall rather than cloud cover. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 6, 2014 Report Share Posted February 6, 2014 I'm wondering if they'll cancel school out here tomorrow. Just based on the forecast. They did that once last year when we were under a WSW. Only that time it busted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted February 6, 2014 Report Share Posted February 6, 2014 http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2011/02/03/article-1353073-0D05AC73000005DC-310_964x611.jpg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 6, 2014 Report Share Posted February 6, 2014 One thing people need to keep in mind is the tendency for things to "trend" north is a detail-specific phenomenon. Doesn't mean it won't happen, but this situation is missing most, if not all the variables one would expect to cause models to tend to flub up trajectories. Even if the lows track as the GFS shows, the normal model tendency is to not push moisture far enough north in cases like this. This will be interesting to watch. I will say this GFS solution makes the 12z ECMWF solution seem a lot more possible. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 6, 2014 Report Share Posted February 6, 2014 So odd to have a two degree separation between PDX and The Dalles at this stage of an event like this... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 6, 2014 Report Share Posted February 6, 2014 If the EURO agrees I bet the Winter Storm watch is upgraded to a warning for at least the south and central valley. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 6, 2014 Report Share Posted February 6, 2014 Even if the lows track as the GFS shows, the normal model tendency is to not push moisture far enough north in cases like this. This will be interesting to watch. I will say this GFS solution makes the 12z ECMWF solution seem a lot more possible. Also agrees with the ECMWF on a dry weekend for us up here as well. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 6, 2014 Report Share Posted February 6, 2014 Eugene is cloudy and 28 with a dp of 14 and a N wind gusting to 26mph. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 6, 2014 Report Share Posted February 6, 2014 No question it would be a serious bummer for people in the north half of Western WA if the GFS were to verify verbatim. To come that close and strike out hurts. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodhijr Posted February 6, 2014 Report Share Posted February 6, 2014 PDX GETS OBLITERATED! The public doesn't know what's about to hit them!I hope so! We have been patient. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted February 6, 2014 Report Share Posted February 6, 2014 No question it would be a serious bummer for people in the north half of Western WA if the GFS were to verify verbatim. To come that close and strike out hurts.Yah.... Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 6, 2014 Report Share Posted February 6, 2014 WRF says its sunny up here tomorrow: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/intcld.24.0000.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 6, 2014 Report Share Posted February 6, 2014 At least a couple of us here will die a painful death from cancer. Thats not funny. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted February 6, 2014 Report Share Posted February 6, 2014 I think before the end of the weekend, we're going to see some goodies up here. As confused as the models are, I wouldn't be surprised to see something new locked on for Saturday/Sunday. Also, there's a potential reload starting around President's day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brody Posted February 6, 2014 Report Share Posted February 6, 2014 Water Vapor Loop looks interesting.... Very volatile pattern evolving.Not sure what you're seeing Rob? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 6, 2014 Report Share Posted February 6, 2014 Eugene is cloudy and 28 with a dp of 14 and a N wind gusting to 26mph. Would precip be snow or rain with those conditions?? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parksvillewx Posted February 6, 2014 Report Share Posted February 6, 2014 http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v204/batman7150/gfssnow.jpg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 6, 2014 Report Share Posted February 6, 2014 Looks like the arctic boundary is somewhere just south of Roseburg, OR. Their dp has now dropped to 22. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 6, 2014 Report Share Posted February 6, 2014 Thats not funny. He didn't say it was funny... but its true. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted February 6, 2014 Report Share Posted February 6, 2014 This really sucks. Can't we just get an inch of snow before we warm up again? NW WA has done terrible this winter other than the short snow to rain transition in December. Even tonight the lows are not able to cool down. Still 25F here, 24F around Arlington, and 24F in Bellingham. Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 6, 2014 Report Share Posted February 6, 2014 The WRF shows precipitation forming in the southern Cascades just a few hours from now. We can almost start watching the radar to see this thing unfold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 6, 2014 Report Share Posted February 6, 2014 http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v204/batman7150/gfssnow.jpg Probably been asked before... but are these maps available to the public? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 6, 2014 Report Share Posted February 6, 2014 Probably been asked before... but are these maps available to the public?No, WeatherBell costs some money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parksvillewx Posted February 6, 2014 Report Share Posted February 6, 2014 Probably been asked before... but are these maps available to the public? They're from a pay site. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 6, 2014 Report Share Posted February 6, 2014 I think before the end of the weekend, we're going to see some goodies up here. As confused as the models are, I wouldn't be surprised to see something new locked on for Saturday/Sunday. Also, there's a potential reload starting around President's day. I agree... the weekend is far from decided. Things could do another dramatic change. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 6, 2014 Report Share Posted February 6, 2014 This really sucks. Can't we just get an inch of snow before we warm up again? NW WA has done terrible this winter other than the short snow to rain transition in December. Even tonight the lows are not able to cool down. Still 25F here, 24F around Arlington, and 24F in Bellingham.Ya this really blows for us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted February 6, 2014 Report Share Posted February 6, 2014 http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v204/batman7150/gfssnow.jpgWashington and B.C.: Oregon: Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 6, 2014 Report Share Posted February 6, 2014 Through Friday morning at 4am http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/snow24.36.0000.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 6, 2014 Report Share Posted February 6, 2014 I'm a bit nervous about the WRF-GFS. Shows the precip missing Portland entirely tomorrow, just barely. It was still a huge improvement over the 12z run but still.I hope this low spreads precip much further north than predicted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted February 6, 2014 Report Share Posted February 6, 2014 Come on ECMWF! Toss a few showers up here over the weekend. Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brody Posted February 6, 2014 Report Share Posted February 6, 2014 Washington and B.C.: Oregon: Yea, the ENTIRE state of Oregon F.O.L's Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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