February 2014 in the PNW

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

No.

Was afraid of that.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I posted it for you:

 

DankA!

[BLI snowman]

Only got down to 21 during the '08 overrunning.  1-6-04 was indeed the last, at least for me.  

 

Just remember, it was in the single digits with snow on 12/30/68 down there. Awesome stuff can happen when the weather gods want to cooperate.

[Deweydog]

Just remember, it was in the single digits with snow on 12/30/68 down there. Awesome stuff can happen when the weather gods want to cooperate.

 

Yeah... We found a little nugget of perfection today.  The kids are having a blast.  

[BLI snowman]

Yeah... We found a little nugget of perfection today.  The kids are having a blast.  

 

Remember to post pics.

[Perturbed Member]

Can anyone point out the center of the low? Seems like it might make landfall somewhere between Florence and Newport?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Can anyone point out the center of the low? Seems like it might make landfall somewhere between Florence and Newport?

About 30 miles north of Florence.

[Deweydog]

Someone is gonna have to deal with the DZ well into tonight.  

[luvssnow_spokane]

Looks like Chehalis and Centralia are about to get in on the action. Can't see much on WDOT cams yet

[TT-SEA]

Someone is gonna have to deal with the DZ well into tonight.  

 

 

Definitely shifting north and east now.

[FroYoBro]

Very hard snow band coming through now. Looks like there might not be much more after it. 

[Deweydog]

Definitely shifting north and east now.

 

Yeah, it'll be interesting to see how it evolves.  It should shift south later on and dissipate, but that might not be until after 8pm or so.  

[Weather101]

Seems horrible Seattle north

 

FXUS66 KSEW 062358

AFDSEW

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA

358 PM PST THU FEB 6 2014

 

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN

WASHINGTON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME

SNOW SOUTH OF OLYMPIA TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A REPEAT PERFORMANCE ON

FRIDAY NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND. A

WARM FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...BRINGING LIQUID

RAIN BACK TO THE LOWLANDS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. A WETTER PATTERN IS

EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS PASSING WESTERN WASHINGTON

ABOUT EVERY OTHER DAY.

 

&&

 

.SHORT TERM...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR OF B.C.

AND ERN WA THIS AFTN...WITH KBLI-CYWL AND KSEA-KEAT GRADIENTS AT

-11.3 MB AND -9.3 MB RESPECTIVELY AS OF 23Z. SO NE-E SFC WINDS WILL

CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THE VERY COLD AND DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE.

RECENTLY GOT A SPOTTER REPORT FROM NORTH BEND INDICATING A PEAK WIND

GUST TODAY OF 57 MPH. KSEA-KEAT GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN

FURTHER THIS EVNG...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND HEADLINES NEAR THE

CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

 

MEANWHILE...AN ALMOST EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED

FROM NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND TO SE MONTANA THIS AFTN...WITH THE

PAC NW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...BUT WITH LOW

HEIGHTS. A SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE TROUGH WILL PASS EAST THROUGH NW ORE

AND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER THROUGH THIS EVNG.

 

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AN AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER SW WA TO

THE SOUTH OF LEWIS COUNTY. IN THE PAST 2 HOURS...THE NORTHERN EDGE

HAS STARTED CREEPING NORTH TOWARD LEWIS COUNTY...SO A WINTER WEATHER

ADVISORY WAS RECENTLY ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. THE FOCUS

WILL BE ON LEWIS AND SOUTHERN THURSTON COUNTIES. HEAVIER AMOUNTS

NEAR 2 INCHES SHOULD OCCUR SOUTH OF CHEHALIS...WITH AMOUNTS OF NEAR

1 INCH FROM GRAND MOUND SOUTH TO CHEHALIS THROUGH FRI MRNG. MERE

FLURRIES WITH LESS-THAN-HALF-INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM

KOLM TO FAR SOUTHERN KING COUNTY. LITTLE OR NO SNOW IS EXPECTED

NORTH OF THERE TONIGHT...INCLUDING THE SEATTLE METRO AREA.

 

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS WAITING IN THE WINGS WEST OF NORTHERN

VANCOUVER ISLAND. IT WILL HEAD SOUTH TONIGHT AND THEN EAST ACROSS NW

ORE / SW WA ON FRI NGT AND SAT MRNG. ONCE AGAIN...AN INCH OR TWO OF

SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SW INTERIOR FROM KOLM ON SOUTH.

LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH...INCLUDING THE SEATTLE AREA...WILL GET

LITTLE OR NOTHING.

 

AFTER SAT MRNG...MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF DRY OUT

THE WEATHER LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS A CHANGE

FROM RECENT DAYS...WHEN MODELS WERE SHOWING AN OVERRUNNING EVENT

WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL OVER THE LOWLANDS.

THE 12Z NAM WAS THE LAST TO SHOW A WINTRY OUTCOME...SO CONFIDENCE IN

SNOW OVER THE LOWLANDS ON SAT NGT OR SUN MRNG IS SINKING FAST. HAVE

LOWERED POPS INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...MERELY OUT OF RESPECT TO

AN OLDER RUN OF THE NAM AND PREVIOUS FORECASTS. AT THIS POINT...

EMPHASIS TURNING TO THE 70-80 PERCENT CHANCE OF DRY WEATHER ON SAT

NGT AND SUN MRNG.

 

NOW LOOKS LIKE A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY

NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A WARM FRONT. BY THE TIME PRECIP SPREADS

ONSHORE ON SUN NGT...TEMPS ALOFT WILL HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY...

AND THE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO MODERATE ENOUGH

FOR PRECIP TO ARRIVE OVER THE LOWLANDS AS RAIN. THE EXCEPTION COULD

BE OVER WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY...WHERE COLD AIR TENDS TO LINGER

LONGER THAN ELSEWHERE. HANER

 

.LONG TERM...A WETTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED NEXT

WEEK. THIS IS TYPICAL FOR THE PAC NW THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT IT HAS

BEEN SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL THIS DRY WINTER. FRONTAL SYSTEMS SHOULD PASS

THROUGH ABOUT EVERY OTHER DAY...ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN AND WIND...THEN

FOLLOWED BY POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS. THE GFS SHOWS FRONTS ON TUE AND

THU...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS A FRONT ON MONDAY...WITH A STRONG

MATURE LOW CENTER HEADING TO VANCOUVER ISLAND ON WED. ULTIMATELY...

DETAILS ARE MUDDY AT THIS POINT...BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL BE A

CHANGE TO MORE TYPICAL RAIN- AND WIND-PRODUCING SYSTEMS WITH

TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO MERELY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW

NORMAL. HANER

 

&&

 

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

 

&&

 

.AVIATION...WLY FLOW ALOFT WITH LOW LEVEL NE FLOW. AT 2PM THERE WAS

A 1005MB LOW NEAR THE OREGON COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER BRITISH

COLUMBIA EXTENDS SOUTH INTO EASTERN WA. COLD DRY AIR EXCEPT FOR THE

MID LEVEL DECK BUT THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SNOW NOW FROM ABOUT

MT RAINIER SOUTH AND CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE WA ORE BORDER.

FRASER OUTFLOW HAS EASED BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY IN A FEW

AREAS...AND THE CROSS CASCADE GRADIENT IS STRONG FOR EASTERLY MAINLY

GAP FLOW NEAR THE CASCADES.

 

KSEA...BREEZY EAST WINDS AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE TO REACH OUT AS FAR

AS SEA TAC THIS EVENING...BUT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO

OREGON THIS EVENING THE CROSS CASCADE GRADIENT MAY EASE AS THE HIGH

PRESSURE OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WE MIGHT SEE

FLURRIES DEVELOP TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM THE WEATHER SYSTEM

MOVING INTO OREGON BUT THE BEST BET IS STILL THAT THIS FAR NORTH WE

WOULD SEE ONLY A TRACE OF FLUFF.

 

&&

 

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND EASTERN WA

CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. AT 2PM THERE IS A 1005MB LOW NEAR THE OREGON

COAST. FRASER OUTFLOW HAS EASED A NOTCH BUT WITH A PRETTY

RESPECTABLE UIL-BLI EASTERLY GRADIENT AND HQM-SEA AS WELL I WILL

KEEP SMALL CRAFTS UP FOR E TO NE WINDS FOR SOME MARINE ZONES.

 

&&

 

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE LOWLANDS OF LEWIS AND SOUTHERN

THURSTON COUNTIES UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR COASTAL MARINE ZONE 150 AND 156...

WEST ENTRANCE AND CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND THE

NORTH PART OF THE INLAND WATERS.

 

&&

 

 

 

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

[paulb/eugene]

The system approaching the coast tomorrow reminds me of January 2004.  That low really bombed out as it went ashore, with very intense precipitation as it tracked from SW OR Coast over Douglas Co/Lane County into Central Oregon.   There was unexpectedly heavy snow from Eugene to PDX with that storm.    If I recall correctly, that low was supposed to head E into K Falls area.  

 

Similar circumstance anticipated tomorrow, perhaps farther N than it was in 2004.  A mess.   

[Deweydog]

Very hard snow band coming through now. Looks like there might not be much more after it. 

 

I think we'll see some back-building into the evening before things pivot through.  

[Perturbed Member]

Heaviest snow of the whole event seems to be coming through right now. Nice big flakes, low visibility. 

[HighlandExperience]

Wow. Depressing read from the Seattle NWS this afternoon. Pretty much saying stick a fork in the next few days and look forward to rain if you're anywhere north of Olympia. Fun.

 

Yup another cruddy transition for us. Maybe next winter will have better luck.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Wow. Depressing read from the Seattle NWS this afternoon. Pretty much saying stick a fork in the next few days and look forward to rain if you're anywhere north of Olympia. Fun.

Not over yet, and there is no way to know what will happen over the next 48hrs. Just go back 48hrs and look at the forecast and compare that to today.

[HighlandExperience]

Not over yet, and there is no way to know what will happen over the next 48hrs. Just go back 48hrs and look at the forecast and compare that to today.

 

At least you have maintained a pretty positive attitude

 

Edit: Appears the precip field is now moving north of Centralia.

[Perturbed Member]

Back edge of the really steady precip just about to pass but its dumping snow like crazy as its passing. Heavy snow, high winds, low visibility. I love it. 

[whitechristmas]

Mark Nelsen just said no more snow after Friday night. So I guess Saturday is a no-go for PDX now. I suppose that could change?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

At least you have maintained a pretty positive attitude

 

Edit: Appears the precip field is now moving north of Centralia.

It's because I can't change the outcome by getting mad and shitting my pants when it don't snow. Trust me I used to flip my lid when I was a young buck, even going as far as calling Steve pool and telling him how bad he was for saying it would snow and it didn't. I've launched a few weather radios out the window before also. I think we have a good chance of getting some Friday night and sat morning. Just going by past events. Also how do we know we will warm up Monday?

[BLI snowman]

Mark Nelsen just said no more snow after Friday night. So I guess Saturday is a no-go for PDX now. I suppose that could change?

 

You're going to get a ton more snow tomorrow evening. I wouldn't worry about the weekend at this point.

[whitechristmas]

You're going to get a ton more snow tomorrow evening. I wouldn't worry about the weekend at this point.

 

Thanks! Do you think Friday's storm will be PDX centered or more central/south valley centered?

[BLI snowman]

Thanks! Do you think Friday's storm will be PDX centered or more central/south valley centered?

 

I'd say south-central valley, but it should extend up to Longview again.

 

Places like Albany could be looking at 13-14"+ on the ground by Saturday morning.

[whitechristmas]

I'd say south-central valley, but it should extend up to Longview again.

 

Places like Albany could be looking at 13-14"+ on the ground by Saturday morning.

 

He just said maybe 1-3" on Friday, but didn't sound positive about it at all. Could the low move north?

[thekingslayer]

Jeez, it's a freakin blizzard outside. 

[Snow]

Systems always tend to curve north. PDX looks good for tomorrow.

[thekingslayer]

Mark Nelsen doesn't seem too optimistic about snow for PDX tomorrow or the weekend. Zaffino on KGW said 4-8" more for Portland tomorrow and 2-6" more on Saturday before the transition. Hmmm...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mark Nelsen doesn't seem too optimistic about snow for PDX tomorrow or the weekend. Zaffino on KGW said 4-8" more for Portland tomorrow and 2-6" more on Saturday before the transition. Hmmm...

 

Take Nelsen

[Snow]

The latest model runs POUND PDX Saturday morning.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/18/nam_namer_045_1000_500_thick.gif

[Perturbed Member]

You're going to get a ton more snow tomorrow evening. I wouldn't worry about the weekend at this point.

Any more details about your thoughts on tomorrow? Just have a feeling that the precip will extend further north than modeled?

[FroYoBro]

Any more details about your thoughts on tomorrow? Just have a feeling that the precip will extend further north than modeled?

I would just wait until the 0z models tonight. They should have a better handle on the position of things. Would ignore tv mets right now. They are all over the place. 

[Snow]

The precip on that map is a lot more into WA than I remember. Could it work out where the first event (today/tomorrow) hits Eugene-Portland and the second event (tomorrow/saturday) hits Portland-Seattle?

 

Probably not likely, but fun to imagine.

 

Yeah, the next system will be stronger than today's system and will trend north. It might not make it to Seattle but Olympia south looks good.

[whitechristmas]

The latest model runs POUND PDX Saturday morning.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/18/nam_namer_045_1000_500_thick.gif

 

Why is Mark predicting nothing with this map? Is the Euro dry?

[HighlandExperience]

Why is Mark predicting nothing with this map? Is the Euro dry?

 

Best to wait till later tonight before we jump to any conclusions. I am a little nervous!

[TT-SEA]

Why is Mark predicting nothing with this map? Is the Euro dry?

 

ECMWF is dry.

 

Follow it over the NAM.  

[Snow]

Why is Mark predicting nothing with this map? Is the Euro dry?

 

The 12z ECMWF barely misses PDX. I think he is going off.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

ECMWF is dry.

 

Follow it over the NAM.  

The nam is one of the most advanced models in the world.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The nam is one of the most advanced models in the world.

In 1990.