Tom Posted September 11, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 11, 2015 Here's a graphic comparing temps from this coming cool shot to last year's...much different story...I think I remember having to turn the Heat on one of those days. http://static.chicagoweathercenter.com/media/2015/09/feature091115a-1024x635.jpg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted September 11, 2015 Report Share Posted September 11, 2015 It's going to be a very snow winter for the Central Plains this winter. I can just feel it. We are long overdue in Nebraska for a snowy winter. We have a similar El Nino going into this winter that we had in 09/10. The warm water in the Pacific is in the right spot to pump troughs into the Central Plains. That coupled with the increased southern jet and upper latitude blocking could spell one heck of a winter. Bring it on! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 11, 2015 Report Share Posted September 11, 2015 From LOT: Geo's, maybe you can catch a water spout on the lake Friday or Saturday! Interesting setup. It happen last September too. This month is king for waterspouts.Will have to be tomorrow, because I fly to Washington on Saturday morning. 0.32" of rain today and a high of 69°. Finally some comfortable air typical of September. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 12, 2015 Report Share Posted September 12, 2015 No LER yet. Although it did rain this morning. Tacked on 0.30" of rain to the yearly total this morning. High of 64° here today with a lot of clouds until mid afternoon. Cool and breezy late in the day. Seeing more leaves fall to the ground the past few days, and more yellow appearing in the foliage. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 12, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 12, 2015 Lake Effect rain showers targeting the city ATM...http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20150912.1542.gif Here is a water spout that is trying to form from those cells coming off the lake near the city... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 12, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 12, 2015 Chilly morning up near the Northwoods: 31F Manitowish Waters, WI 31F Tomahawk, WI 32F Eagle River, WI 32F Grand Marais, MN 34F Ely, MN Live Camera up near Barrow, AK...let it snow.... http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_webcam 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted September 12, 2015 Report Share Posted September 12, 2015 I'm definitely glad we escaped the lake effect rain, as it would make these low 60 highs feel rawer with overcast skies and rain showers. As it stands, looks like a nice fall-like weekend followed by another warm period, though a far cry from the first week of September with no 90s in the forecast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted September 12, 2015 Report Share Posted September 12, 2015 A year ago today we had a high temp of 51. For that week we had two days in the 50s and four in the 60s, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 30s on four nights. This morning's 45 was nippy for sitting outside to watch the birds, but it was a very pleasant day in the 60s. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 13, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 13, 2015 The new JMA monthlies came out 2 days ago and here is what they show for Oct-Dec. As expected, in the month of October we begin to see the NW NAMER ridge take place while the trough centered south of the Aleutians begins to take place. Temps in October are slightly cooler from the East/Lakes into the southern Plains. The west coast begins to see some moisture as the Pacific jet begins to energize. In November, it has a warmer look for a majority of the nation with some serious ridging over the lower 48 except near the south as the STJ becomes more active which suggest above normal precip from the southern Midwest/Plains/Southeast. I don't know if I buy that outcome just yet, bc you will notice the Aleutian Low is deeper and not necessarily centered in the GOA ( which would pump warmth into the U.S.) Let's see what the models projections are next month. Once we get into December, surprisingly it is not as warm as I thought it would be and a typical El NINO look with above normal Precip from Cali/4 corners/southern plains and then all the way up the East coast. Notice the Monster Trough south of the Aleutians and extensive blocking over the top with above normal temps in NW NAMER. These are certainly very interesting details the JMA is indicating and following the SST analogs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 13, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 13, 2015 Just to comment farther on what I think will be common feature this Fall/Winter season. It's pretty evident that a majority of the long range seasonal models are all agreeing on is a powerhouse Aleutian Low, centered farther west and not in the GOA. The presence of the Aleutian Low will create a baraclinic zone in the Pacific and activate the southern branch of the jet stream as we head into mid/late November/early December. I wonder how active the subtropical jet will be this season since oceanic temps are extremely warm W/SW of Baja.http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomp.9.10.2015.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 13, 2015 Report Share Posted September 13, 2015 What a chilly morning it was. I believe it got down to the lower 40s and I would not be surprised if spots in the area dipped into the upper 30s in SEMI. I will double check. Also, the leaves have started to change colors. Actually, some started a week ago or so. I'd say, that's a little too early. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 13, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 13, 2015 What a chilly morning it was. I believe it got down to the lower 40s and I would not be surprised if spots in the area dipped into the upper 30s in SEMI. I will double check. Also, the leaves have started to change colors. Actually, some started a week ago or so. I'd say, that's a little too early.Upper Michigan low's were pretty cold... 28F Spincich Lake, MI 28F Kenton, MI 29F Baraga Plains, MI 29F Brimson, MN 31F Tomahawk, WI Part of the reason why the leaves may be changing color faster this year may be due to the drier weather we had in August. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 13, 2015 Report Share Posted September 13, 2015 Upper Michigan low's were pretty cold... 28F Spincich Lake, MI 28F Kenton, MI 29F Baraga Plains, MI 29F Brimson, MN 31F Tomahawk, WI Part of the reason why the leaves may be changing color faster this year may be due to the drier weather we had in August.That's pretty darn cold for this time of the year. My low was a nippy 37F. Not a record though. Old record was 31F. I was thought that the leaves were changing colors fast this year because of a tough, brutal winter that's coming. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 13, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 13, 2015 That's pretty darn cold for this time of the year. My low was a nippy 37F. Not a record though. Old record was 31F. I was thought that the leaves were changing colors fast this year because of a tough, brutal winter that's coming. Could actually be a combination of both! Let' see how fast they shed this year. Meanwhile, it has been a gorgeous Fall day today. Ample sunshine, light breeze and of course, another Bear's loss against the Packers! Haha...Packer fans can thank Cutler...again, for his turnovers. Another summer like week ahead. I should have great traveling weather on Thursday as I'm driving with my brother to AZ with our Seadoo XP's and leaving them there till nxt Spring. Can't wait to rip them up on the lakes in between the Canyon's. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 13, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 13, 2015 Snow and Ice coverage a bit above normal in AK/Siberia...this map should be showing more Blue over the coming 2 weeks as the pattern in both regions will be favorable for more early season snows... http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/png/daily_dn/2015255.png Arctic regions responding well with a continued trend in Arctic temps that are heading south... http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2015.png The state of AK may have a lot more snow on the ground by months end...not to bad for this time of year... http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/prvsnow_alaska.gif North America snow cover should be well ahead of last year's start and even the prior year if models continue the trends... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015091318/gfs_asnow_namer_41.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hckyplayer8 Posted September 14, 2015 Report Share Posted September 14, 2015 Warm one today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted September 14, 2015 Report Share Posted September 14, 2015 More above average stuff this week. September will finish well above average. Cfs says more of the same for october Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 14, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 14, 2015 Latest 10 day chunk from the CFSv2 for October... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbT2mMonInd1.gif Month thus far shows how much of the nation has been torchy...CFS has been done good so far for this month for the central/eastern CONUS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 14, 2015 Report Share Posted September 14, 2015 Well, that was a warm GFS run. Decent little cool down for this weekend though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 14, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 14, 2015 CPC says...a warm finish to the month... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 14, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 14, 2015 It's been wet in recent days around here. 12z GFS paints some more soaking rains Thu-Sat in the region... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015091412/gfs_apcpn_ncus_21.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 14, 2015 Report Share Posted September 14, 2015 My God that's a torch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 15, 2015 Report Share Posted September 15, 2015 Looks like heavy rain potential for a lot of us on this forum late week. Nice track. Lets hope for this kinda system this coming Winter! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted September 15, 2015 Report Share Posted September 15, 2015 I am sure ready for some serious fall weather here in Central Nebraska. As of 3:30 PM, it is 98 degrees with a humidity of 16% with south winds of 26 mph gusting to 40 mph. Talk about hot and dry. I guess it will get the corn ready for harvest fairly quickly. By Friday, we are only low 70's for highs and a low of 44 which will feel heavenly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 16, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 16, 2015 Boom! I believe the JAMSTEC model has updated their September forecast and its coming around to a nasty Winter for the lower 48. If you have been following this model, it primarily focused the coldest temps and wetter pattern up along the EC/SE. However, this months run is now backing it up all the way from the Rockies to the East! First, let's take notice to the SST's for the remainder of this Autumn. It has cooled the NE PAC waters somewhat from last months runs which may be a sign of what is currently happening in the NE PAC right now as some cooler eddy's have been showing up. Still, the waters remain quite warm, but not overly warm which may be a good thing as we head into Winter. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.SON2015.1sep2015.gif The model is still indicating a colder central CONUS for the Autumn months and a warmer EC as the waters are still quite warm off the EC which will promote ridging early on in the season. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.SON2015.1sep2015.gif A rather wet looking pattern right in the heart of the nation during the Fall is a great look for storminess as the new LRC sets up. Notice how wet the 4 corners region is which may be an indication of the STJ becoming active fueling off the warm waters SW of Baja/Mexico. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.SON2015.1sep2015.gif As we move into Winter, the Modiki El Nino takes shape while the Aleutian Low deepens south of the Islands in the NE PAC pumping the ridge and unleashing the Fridge into the lower 48. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.DJF2016.1sep2015.gif I like the look of this temp & precip forecast map for the heart of the Winter...look at those warmer temps in AK/Yukon Territories. Now you know why I am monitoring the snow pack up that way as we head into Autumn??? Pop that ridge as Winter matures, your going to feel those temps down in the lower 48 crash. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2016.1sep2015.gif http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.DJF2016.1sep2015.gif Cali should get pounded with tons of precip this Winter if this forecast should verify. Looks like a coast 2 coast, action packed Winter season. Sure hope there are plenty of storm systems to track this coming season. I'm pretty thrilled to see the JAMSTEC taking the right steps to a wild winter season. Plenty of time to see how this unfolds. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 16, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 16, 2015 Crashing SOI suggest a trough to push into the Eastern CONUS...GFS/EURO may be starting to hint at that to finish off the month. What a gorgeous couple of days we've had around here. Low humidity, mild temps, nice breeze during the day and nights, can't ask for better weather in September. A more active weather pattern is shaping up over the next 10-15 days as we head deeper into the month. The colder air up north will begin to make intrusions and the "second season" of Severe Weather should ignite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted September 16, 2015 Report Share Posted September 16, 2015 Great information Tom. The maps look good. Always look forward to your posts. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 17, 2015 Report Share Posted September 17, 2015 Crashing SOI suggest a trough to push into the Eastern CONUS...GFS/EURO may be starting to hint at that to finish off the month. What a gorgeous couple of days we've had around here. Low humidity, mild temps, nice breeze during the day and nights, can't ask for better weather in September. A more active weather pattern is shaping up over the next 10-15 days as we head deeper into the month. The colder air up north will begin to make intrusions and the "second season" of Severe Weather should ignite.The weather has been phenomenal, but, to tell you he truth, I am ready for some real Autumn weather. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 17, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 17, 2015 JMA Weeklies suggest late-Summer weather to continue through the end of this month and even into the first part of October near the Plains/Midwest/Lakes region...NW NAMER stays cold and builds up the snow cover... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted September 19, 2015 Report Share Posted September 19, 2015 Looks like some nasty storms for you guys in Chicago. Good thing it didn't happen today so the Cubs could continue the winning streak!! Seen some decent rain and hail cover the ground this morning around my area. Now windows are open and enjoying the cool fall air. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted September 19, 2015 Report Share Posted September 19, 2015 2.99" is my 48-hour total from this system, the best rain event since June. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 19, 2015 While some media outlets focused on the Arctic Sea Ice reaching its 4th lowest minimum since 1979...Nature decides to take a turn and now is setting Record Growth as Ice accelerates. It's not a surprise as Arctic Temps continue to crash... http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/climatechange/annual-arctic-sea-ice-minimum-1/52421596 http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2015.png Interestingly enough, this is the fastest seasonal decline in arctic temps since the 2009-2010 El Nino...similarities??? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 20, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 20, 2015 It's been a hot couple of days here in the valley of the sun...back to back 100F days can dry you out in a hurry! However, a pretty potent tropical system is poised to hit the region Mon/Tue and unload some tropical moisture here in AZ. Flood Watches have been hoisted in the region with 2-3" of rain being forecast. I'm sure you all will be hearing about these flooding rains in the next couple of days. Is this a sign of the new pattern starting to take shape??? Super warm waters continue to boil off the Baja coast where this system is coming from...http://weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Ocean-Anomalies-September-1.jpg I'm already seeing signs of the new LRC starting to form up near the northern latitudes...over the next 1-2 weeks, the lower 48 will begin to see a brand new pattern as October approaches. What is interesting to see in the NE PAC, the warmest of waters are just off shore the NW NAMER coastline which is a good position if you want a trough centered more into the central CONUS as we head towards winter. If your a fan of Winter weather and live in the central CONUS, I'd say that is a perfect location of where you want the warmest waters to be located. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 20, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 20, 2015 It's still to early in the season for any Stratospheric Warming Events to really impact the lower 48. However, I find it rather interesting to see that a minor SSW event is occurring over N Canada in recent days... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif Could low solar/low geomagnetic be impacting the upper atmosphere this early in the season??? We shall see how this evolves later on in the season. In any case, during a normal SSW event, you would see a cooler period Week 2-4 and that would put us into the first couple weeks of October. Let's see if this impacts our weather down the road. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 20, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 20, 2015 Eurasia and North America continue to build up an early season snow cover in recent days/weeks and the pattern looks to continue. The CFS sniffed this pattern out over 2 months ago and it has been my go-to model as we head into the Fall/Winter months. It seems this model does a good job during a transitioning season from Summer into Autumn. http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_alaska.gif Nonetheless, the CFS model is showing a continued trend to a Fast Start to Winter in November and it's been dialing in a colder/snowier pattern for the lower 48 just before Thanksgiving week. I find it intriguing that the model is centering the main trough in North America over the NW Territories/Yukon, southeast into the Central CONUS. November 23rd... http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/09/20/basis00/namk/weas/15112300_2000.gif December 1st... http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/09/20/basis00/namk/weas/15120112_2000.gif Mid December... http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/09/20/basis00/namk/weas/15121400_2000.gif Let's see if the trends persist as we head deeper into October. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 20, 2015 Report Share Posted September 20, 2015 GFS continues to be warm into the first week of October. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted September 21, 2015 Report Share Posted September 21, 2015 Run after run of the Euro keeps the pattern stuck through day ten. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 21, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 21, 2015 The CFS is keeping the 1st half of October rather warm before the pattern begins to shift cooler. We saw this same pattern in October 2002 during the 2002-03' Winter season. I don't mind seeing the cold air and snow continue to build and intensify up north in the Autumn, because chances are there will be blocking this season that will unload the cold into the Lower 48 as we get deeper into Oct/Nov. I guess you could say...extended Summer??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 21, 2015 Report Share Posted September 21, 2015 The CFS is keeping the 1st half of October rather warm before the pattern begins to shift cooler. We saw this same pattern in October 2002 during the 2002-03' Winter season. I don't mind seeing the cold air and snow continue to build and intensify up north in the Autumn, because chances are there will be blocking this season that will unload the cold into the Lower 48 as we get deeper into Oct/Nov. I guess you could say...extended Summer??? Yeah but the 1st half of October is also part of the new LRC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 21, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 21, 2015 Yeah but the 1st half of October is also part of the new LRC.Sure is, but its not like there won't be any warm phases in the 2015-16 LRC cycle this year. I think its almost a given there will be bouts of warmer conditions this season. There are many other variables that can offset warming, cooling, etc...its part of the surprises Nature brings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.