bud2380 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 NAM looks weaker, slower, further south again. Flip flop. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 In the end the qpf was still high this run it was just slower to develop and further south. About 100-150 miles south from 18z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 1 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 What in the 00z NAM is happening here? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 Kc crush job also on the icon looks like the kc peeps Will get there wish Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 FWIW, here's the 00z HRW-FV3 at 60 hrs... well north of the NAM. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 11 minutes ago, NH4NU said: What in the 00z NAM is happening here? Desperate times call for desperate measures. 2 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 I can’t count how many times the NAM has thrown a huge curveball only to end up being a major outlier. It still drops 9” IMBY but I still It’s a far south outlier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 Icon remains south 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 Please be right nam 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 00z RDPS is a bit nw 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 29 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: Icon remains south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 SREF plume for CR is about 5.5” with a low of 0 and a high of 22”. Lol. Quite the spread Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 GFS is also south. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 About 100 miles further south with the heaviest snow band. Can’t get any consistency right now. It also delays the storm by several hours compared to the 12z run. Still drops 7” IMBY but this would be way too close for comfort for me. This one seems destined to bullseye either southern iowa or northern Missouri 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 I’m interested to compare the GEFS mean to the op model. The GEFS have consistently been north of the operational model. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 A couple days ago it looked like heavy snow would move in here before sunrise. Now the GFS doesn't even have a flurry until mid afternoon. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 Is the Nam and GFS bipolar? If the euro moves way south then south trends are gold Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 0z GFS for the eastern half of the forum. Even @Timmy_Supercellgets in on the action. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 Canadian looking much better this run than the 12z run. Not sure if it’s north or south of the gfs or NAM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 9.6” on the Canadian. Where do I sign up? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 0z GEFS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 The southern edge of the GEFS mean didn’t shift south much. But the northern edge shrunk. The heaviest axis did shift south a little compared to 18z but not a lot. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 UK on deck. Out to 24 hours. It’s a fast running model. It should be to the storm in a few minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 UK gives everyone some snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 Ukie a lot further north but overall weaker. Hard to fairly compare with only 10:1 maps Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 00z UK 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 Let’s see what the Euro says. If it’s weaker and/or further south. I’ll be pretty disappointed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 Mainly because I’m bias for OMA/LNK, I have to get on board with “Barbs Rule”. If you know, you know. Toss models out once you reach 3 days prior to event onset. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 If you're in southern Iowa you're looking pretty good I'd say Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 Returned home from Florida last night. It was 9° with 2" of snow OTG. I guess winter arrived finally. We left Nashville in the morning and it was 71° so thats a 62° drop we went through in about 12 hours. Impressive. Veered off route a bit to check out Mayfield KY and almost felt bad for being there. That tornado damage is horrific. Military was still in town. Some streets were closed. We got out after 30min or so. Definitely felt some sadness driving down the road after seeing that devastation. Anyway....back to NYD. Not feeling too good up here. Definitely will be cold. We got Arctic air finally! 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 18 minutes ago, james1976 said: Returned home from Florida last night. It was 9° with 2" of snow OTG. I guess winter arrived finally. We left Nashville in the morning and it was 71° so thats a 62° drop we went through in about 12 hours. Impressive. Veered off route a bit to check out Mayfield KY and almost felt bad for being there. That tornado damage is horrific. Military was still in town. Some streets were closed. We got out after 30min or so. Definitely felt some sadness driving down the road after seeing that devastation. Anyway....back to NYD. Not feeling too good up here. Definitely will be cold. We got Arctic air finally! Haha I left KMEM at 70 degrees and you could hear a few groans when the pilot said "it's currently about 3 degrees in Minneapolis". Returned to low 20s in Omaha/Lincoln. Feels refreshing after 70s and humid in for most of my time in Memphis. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 29 minutes ago, james1976 said: Returned home from Florida last night. It was 9° with 2" of snow OTG. I guess winter arrived finally. We left Nashville in the morning and it was 71° so thats a 62° drop we went through in about 12 hours. Impressive. Veered off route a bit to check out Mayfield KY and almost felt bad for being there. That tornado damage is horrific. Military was still in town. Some streets were closed. We got out after 30min or so. Definitely felt some sadness driving down the road after seeing that devastation. Anyway....back to NYD. Not feeling too good up here. Definitely will be cold. We got Arctic air finally! I'm still hoping for a miracle for us, but, this isn't 34th Street lol 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 9 minutes ago, Bellona said: I'm still hoping for a miracle for us, but, this isn't 34th Street lol Got a couple days yet but a southern trend when you're already on the north edge is a bad place to be lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 00z Euro 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 South trend is the real deal tonight. Maybe the KC peeps get their storm finally. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 Certainly has drifted south for us in southeast Nebraska. It’s south from the 12z b about 2.5 counties. By tomorrow night she will be a KC special for sure 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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