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New Year's Day Storm


bud2380
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Models have been showing this for a few days now and all are in agreement of a storm impacting the mid section of the country.  The GFS has shifted further north, the Euro has weakened a bit, but both are showing plenty to keep an eye on.  The Canadian is similar to the Euro on placement but as strong as the GFS.  

 

18z GFS

 

snku_024h.us_mw.png

 

12z Canadian

1641092400-NNfg7sDIPY0.png

 

12z Euro

 

1641103200-IxNjlbBbamg.png

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Season Snowfall: 0.00"

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So, we have a thread and models all go north lol. My early call for the SLP running over Chicago solidly in play.

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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11 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Big changes in the euro from 12z

Ugh... a strong piece of energy in southern Canada really suppresses everything.

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I'm not buying into the north camp just yet bc every global ensemble mean SLP has it riding thru the S MW/OHV.  I think the GFS is over amped in a positively inverted trough scenarios its hard to believe it.  If the set up was a little different up stream, I'd say yes, but I think this will be a strung out wave and then maybe it tries to go somewhat neg tilt later in the game.  That's my 2 cents at this range.

Meantime, 0z GEFS...

image.png

 

Slowly showing some big hits in the mix...

image.png

 

Classic TX PanHandle track up thru the OHV...

 

1.gif

 

The bias of the Euro holding energy back in the SW is still showing up but the EPS is slowly ejecting the energy out quicker each passing run.  00z EPS is not overly enthusiastic with this system compared to the GEFS/GEPS.

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19 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

The GFS SLP shifted considerably south, but oddly enough the snow and precip shield didn't shift.  Typically a SLP through central to northeast MO would put eastern Iowa in a good path for snow, but it's not showing up that way on this run.

 

prateptype_cat.us_mw.png

 

snku_024h.us_mw.png

GFS is trash this far out.  Snow could end up anywhere from Wichita to Duluth.  GFS properly predicts snow in MPLS only 65% of the time at 48 hours out.  That's with only 48 hours lead time.  And that's in MPLS where snow is more predictable than, say, Kansas, Missouri and Illinois. 

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Let's go ICON!! Has KC in the 6-8 inch range.....I know.....stupid model. But, I'm going with it because I need to feel good about a chance of snow in KC. We haven't even come close to a chance of snow since Nov. 1st. I'm locking in the ICON model and going with it

 

GFS and GEM....not so much for KC. 

 

5 days to go

At least KC has a storm to track. 

 

 

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I have a feeling the Euro and its more progressive positively tilted trough solution will win out.  I'm just hoping it will be further north than where it's running now.  I feel fairly good 5 days out that the GFS is to my north and the Euro to my south with the Canadian and now UK right in the middle.  Hopefully they all meet up in the middle. :)

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Season Snowfall: 0.00"

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Gary says the LRC favors a further south solution.  But he admits that he's gun shy about predicting anything significant for KC because we've had 0.19 inches of precipitation in the last 43 days.  I think he has to be sweating the whole LRC thing this year.  We haven't had anything yet that truly resembles October. 

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18 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Gary says the LRC favors a further south solution.  But he admits that he's gun shy about predicting anything significant for KC because we've had 0.19 inches of precipitation in the last 43 days.  I think he has to be sweating the whole LRC thing this year.  We haven't had anything yet that truly resembles October. 

Here's is quote and I'm still shocked that so many storms have tracked by with no moisture to work with for us. @Tomdo you agree with him?  I keep looking for a fully phased storm, not sure if we're going to get it.

The LRC strongly suggests the farther south solution, but the 43-day dry spell has me a bit "freaked out" over anything that looks like rain or snow.

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19 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Gary says the LRC favors a further south solution.  But he admits that he's gun shy about predicting anything significant for KC because we've had 0.19 inches of precipitation in the last 43 days.  I think he has to be sweating the whole LRC thing this year.  We haven't had anything yet that truly resembles October. 

Hopefully the cold air is stronger on the models that will push the system south to finally give kc its first snow of the season!

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The Euro is back nw and a bit stronger again, so it's fairly similar to other models.  Models agree on the general scenario.  Energy digs down from the pacNW, which grabs the Baha energy and slingshots it across the midwest very quickly.  The rest of the energy in the west is then wasted as the northern stream rushes in behind the initial energy and suppresses everything.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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53 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Here's is quote and I'm still shocked that so many storms have tracked by with no moisture to work with for us. @Tomdo you agree with him?  I keep looking for a fully phased storm, not sure if we're going to get it.

The LRC strongly suggests the farther south solution, but the 43-day dry spell has me a bit "freaked out" over anything that looks like rain or snow.

It’s hard for me to see this storm really phasing into a stronger storm like the GFS keeps showing.  We are at that 5-day window where things can change a lot.  The energy needs to get samples better by say, Wed/Thu…if by then the models begin to show some phasing, then I’ll be more optimistic.  Otherwise, I see this as a strung out + tilted trough.  Still though, this storm could end up laying down a significant snowstorm over the Sub.  Nice changes on the Euro over here.

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^^ Love for that to verify but the heaviest snow falls with a temp around 4F Saturday PM and falling.

20:1 ratios. 

Not sure I by it 

** Back in the saddle after having my world rocked by Rona. *** Nasty stuff. Ivermectin works.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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ICON inched north leaving KC on the northern edge of the rain for the most part.  Wouldn't surprise me if KC ends up 50-100 miles too far south for this one.  That's a VERY common occurrence here.  There's a reason Des Moines gets twice as much snow as us even though it's only 2.5 hours away (and there's no major features like mountains or water to influence the weather).  We'll see . . . 

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DMX actually more concerned than I would've gathered at this juncture-

This western trof advance eastward later Friday into Saturday.  The
surface wave in Colorado is forecast to eject into the central
United States on Saturday with moisture streaming northward from the
Gulf. The deterministic runs of the GFS and Euro are beginning to
come closer in their respective solutions although the GFS remains
farther north.  The ensemble guidance would also suggest some decent
snow associated with a deformation axis across Iowa as well on
Saturday and will begin to mention the potential for significant
snowfalls this upcoming holiday weekend.  Temperatures are also
expected to remain quite cold through the weekend with the southern
edge of the arctic air dipping into the state.  Any potential snow
cover would only help the cold air migrate farther into Iowa.
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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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1 minute ago, Grizzcoat said:

DMX actually more concerned than I would've gathered at this juncture-

This western trof advance eastward later Friday into Saturday.  The
surface wave in Colorado is forecast to eject into the central
United States on Saturday with moisture streaming northward from the
Gulf. The deterministic runs of the GFS and Euro are beginning to
come closer in their respective solutions although the GFS remains
farther north.  The ensemble guidance would also suggest some decent
snow associated with a deformation axis across Iowa as well on
Saturday and will begin to mention the potential for significant
snowfalls this upcoming holiday weekend.  Temperatures are also
expected to remain quite cold through the weekend with the southern
edge of the arctic air dipping into the state.  Any potential snow
cover would only help the cold air migrate farther into Iowa.

Won't be long before they start throwing out "Historic" lol. Seems to me they do it quite a bit. 

A certain group on a certain media app is forecasting DEADLY BLIZZARD ..lol.

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2 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

^^ Love for that to verify but the heaviest snow falls with a temp around 4F Saturday PM and falling.

20:1 ratios. 

Not sure I by it 

** Back in the saddle after having my world rocked by Rona. *** Nasty stuff. Ivermectin works.

Been down the past 4 days myself with a fever. Doubt it's rona but still not pleasant. Glad you're doing better and back just in time for the action.

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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First mention by DTX. Glad to read there's still a fair number of ensemble members SOUTH of me

A potential bigger system is being eyed for the Saturday-
Sunday time frame as ensemble solutions are starting to converge on
a low pressure system impacting the Ohio Valley. Still plenty of
divergence noted within EPS cyclone centers, so it is way too soon to
start talking about any winter weather impacts. WPC Day 4 paints
Michigan (and a large portion of the Midwest and Northeast, owing to
model divergence) with a 10-30 percent chance of observing .25"
liquid equivalent of snow, while CPC clusters still have about half
of its 100 ensemble model suite holding .25" liquid equivalent south
of the state line.

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Take a look at my blog post regarding this storm-- I have a specific focus on the KC area and the midwest being from KC and currently living and attending graduate school for meteorology in St. Louis. Feel free to subscribe! Would love to have other fellow weather enthusiasts join. 
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At 250, there has been a noticeable trend towards weaker, more westerly flow potentially causing the low to track a bit further south, but also to be much weaker. The trough upstream over the western states has also trended to be much more positively tilted leading to the more westerly flower over the central states. I want to see stronger, more coupled upper jet that could lead to stronger upper-level divergence, strengthening the surface low. 

Screen Shot 2021-12-27 at 8.13.11 PM.png

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Any chance this system gets going early? I am driving from West Michigan to Northern Colorado. I plan to arrive on the 31st, but I don't want to get stuck on the road in a snowstorm, so I am preparing to try to arrive earlier if needed. Looks pretty safe at the moment though.

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2 minutes ago, Jarod said:

Any chance this system gets going early? I am driving from West Michigan to Northern Colorado. I plan to arrive on the 31st, but I don't want to get stuck on the road in a snowstorm, so I am preparing to try to arrive earlier if needed. Looks pretty safe at the moment though.

Nothing is pointing towards that at the moment. 

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