Meatyorologist Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 Make of this what you will. No real discernable "trend", save for speeding up northward height propagation. Ridge axis is worryingly far west, I'm afraid. Blocking highs have loved to center around the Bering coast of AK all winter long. Unless that changes, we'll have to thread the needle to get things done. It worked in Dec, at least up here, but that was a bit lucky. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 Well the CMCE looks fine. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 Matt and JAYA are laughing at all of us right now. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 minute ago, MossMan said: Matt and JAYA are laughing at all of us right now. why hang around here with us losers? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, MossMan said: Matt and JAYA are laughing at all of us right now. I haven't really even been looking at models. I didn't like what was shown a few days ago. Feels like we're going to be chasing our tail with this. I still think mid February will offer some colder days and chances of snow. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 GEFS v CMCE day 12ish. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 Ain't Skeer'd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 34 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said: Eth fees can, to quote Donnie Darko, "suck a f*ck" I looked at Eth and it was a couple hundred dollars. Look at the binance network but it would take a week to transfer funds onto the binance network since I don’t use it. I already use the Avax network so I am trying this….. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 Just now, SouthHillFrosty said: I looked at Eth and it was a couple hundred dollars. Look at the binance network but it would take a week to transfer funds onto the binance network since I don’t use it. I already use the Avax network so I am trying this….. Avax is the shiz. When scaling hits ada this year, game on. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 I think a Raccoon meme coin would be the most appropriate!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 The GEM is an absolute beauty at the end. Hopefully the bad run on the GFS suite of models was just a hiccup. At least the control on the ensemble was good. 4 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 Looking more closely at the GEM it would be huge snowstorm for Seattle. A good amount has already fallen at hour 240 with the best yet to come as the low tracks inland to the SW. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 Uh oh.... just kidding. About kidding, not .... Yeah. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Looking more closely at the GEM it would be huge snowstorm for Seattle. A good amount has already fallen at hour 240 with the best yet to come as the low tracks inland to the SW. So legit 2 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 EURO, please save us from the crap GFS run! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 Time for the euro to do us dirty day 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 As long as the EPS holds strong I'll be feeling pretty good after seeing how awesome the Canadian ensemble is tonight. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 So far, the secondary trough southwest of the Alaska ridge that messes things up in the GFS trough isn't there in the EURO that's good. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: So legit That's as it gets for the EPSL lowlands right there. Little doubt that low would track straight east from there. The GFS definitely shows a bias toward wanting to dig too much energy over the ocean in cases like this. That's what went wrong with the operational GFS tonight. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 Resting up for the big show on Sunday! 3 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 They all over the place 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 Decent cold pool developing over the Basin already. Good news for Portland and the approaches to the passes in the Seattle area. We should easily pull off considerably colder nights than the previous inversion. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 Day 7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Pretty hard to draw any firm conclusions yet on this ECMWF run. I'm betting the EPS will be excellent again tonight. I think the operational models have problems with pattern evolutions in cases like this. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 GDI. Mf’er looks just like the GFS 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 Icky. Shows how much of an outlier and garbage even the 18z GEFS was. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 we're fine. get the garbage out of the way now 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 Crummy 00z runs. No idea if its a trend and when you're 10 days out from the potential cold pattern it's impossible to know. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 I guess we can still hope for a good EPS run, at least we still have the CMC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 It looks like the ECMWF may pull it off in the end. At any rate the positive anom center is in the absolute sweet spot. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 6 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: we're fine. get the garbage out of the way now Yup. I'll take my chances with the positive center location the ECMWF is showing any day of the week. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 Day 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 What a mess the models are tonight, look at the similarities between the CMC and EURO at day 10. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 32 degrees now. Better than I was expecting at this time. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 Day 10 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said: What a mess the models are tonight, look at the similarities between the CMC and EURO at day 10. It always blows my mind how fast people forget the models always give us a scare going into these things. ALWAYS. I think this one has actually had less of that than most. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said: Day 10 That positive center is money. Right where it was in Jan 1950. 2 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 Did WB add this Columbia river basin region recently? Or has it always been there? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 Analogs on tonight's GFS run are the same as they've been the last couple of days. 1954, 1957, 1962, 1989. The whole thing just comes down to details. The big players are in the right places. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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