PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[Meatyorologist]

Make of this what you will. No real discernable "trend", save for speeding up northward height propagation.

Ridge axis is worryingly far west, I'm afraid. Blocking highs have loved to center around the Bering coast of AK all winter long. Unless that changes, we'll have to thread the needle to get things done. It worked in Dec, at least up here, but that was a bit lucky.

[RentonHill]

Well the CMCE looks fine. 

[MossMan]

Matt and JAYA are laughing at all of us right now. 

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Matt and JAYA are laughing at all of us right now. 

why hang around here with us losers? 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Matt and JAYA are laughing at all of us right now. 

I haven't really even been looking at models. I didn't like what was shown a few days ago. Feels like we're going to be chasing our tail with this.  I still think mid February will offer some colder days and chances of snow.

[RentonHill]

GEFS v CMCE day 12ish. 

[Phishy Wx]

Ain't Skeer'd

[SouthHillFrosty]

34 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Eth fees can, to quote Donnie Darko, "suck a f*ck" 

I looked at Eth and it was a couple hundred dollars. Look at the binance network but it would take a week to transfer funds onto the binance network since I don’t use it. I already use the Avax network so I am trying this…..

[Snownerd3000]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

I looked at Eth and it was a couple hundred dollars. Look at the binance network but it would take a week to transfer funds onto the binance network since I don’t use it. I already use the Avax network so I am trying this…..

Avax is the shiz. When scaling hits ada this year, game on. 

[GHweatherChris]

I think a Raccoon meme coin would be the most appropriate!!

[snow_wizard]

The GEM is an absolute beauty at the end.  Hopefully the bad run on the GFS suite of models was just a hiccup.  At least the control on the ensemble was good.

[snow_wizard]

Looking more closely at the GEM it would be huge snowstorm for Seattle.  A good amount has already fallen at hour 240 with the best yet to come as the low tracks inland to the SW.

[Gradient Keeper]

Uh oh.... just kidding. About kidding, not .... Yeah.

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looking more closely at the GEM it would be huge snowstorm for Seattle.  A good amount has already fallen at hour 240 with the best yet to come as the low tracks inland to the SW.

So legit

[Slushy Inch]

EURO, please save us from the crap GFS run!

[RentonHill]

Time for the euro to do us dirty

day 5

[snow_wizard]

As long as the EPS holds strong I'll be feeling pretty good after seeing how awesome the Canadian ensemble is tonight.

[Slushy Inch]

So far, the secondary trough southwest of the Alaska ridge that messes things up in the GFS trough isn't there in the EURO that's good. 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

So legit

That's as it gets for the EPSL lowlands right there.  Little doubt that low would track straight east from there.  The GFS definitely shows a bias toward wanting to dig too much energy over the ocean in cases like this.  That's what went wrong with the operational GFS tonight.

[Deweydog]

Resting up for the big show on Sunday!

 

[RentonHill]

They all over the place

[Gradient Keeper]

[snow_wizard]

Decent cold pool developing over the Basin already.  Good news for Portland and the approaches to the passes in the Seattle area.  We should easily pull off considerably colder nights than the previous inversion.

[RentonHill]

Day 7

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Pretty hard to draw any firm conclusions yet on this ECMWF run.  I'm betting the EPS will be excellent again tonight.  I think the operational models have problems with pattern evolutions in cases like this.

[RentonHill]

GDI. Mf’er looks just like the GFS

[Gradient Keeper]

Icky. Shows how much of an outlier and garbage even the 18z GEFS was.

[Phishy Wx]

we're fine. get the garbage out of the way now

[Gradient Keeper]

Crummy 00z runs. No idea if its a trend and when you're 10 days out from the potential cold pattern it's impossible to know.

[Slushy Inch]

I guess we can still hope for a good EPS run, at least we still have the CMC.

[snow_wizard]

It looks like the ECMWF may pull it off in the end.  At any rate the positive anom center is in the absolute sweet spot.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

we're fine. get the garbage out of the way now

Yup.  I'll take my chances with the positive center location the ECMWF is showing any day of the week.

[RentonHill]

Day 9

[Slushy Inch]

What a mess the models are tonight, look at the similarities between the CMC and EURO at day 10.

[snow_wizard]

32 degrees now.  Better than I was expecting at this time.

[RentonHill]

Day 10

[snow_wizard]

Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said:

What a mess the models are tonight, look at the similarities between the CMC and EURO at day 10.

It always blows my mind how fast people forget the models always give us a scare going into these things.  ALWAYS.  I think this one has actually had less of that than most.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Day 10

That positive center is money.  Right where it was in Jan 1950.

[RentonHill]

Did WB add this Columbia river basin region recently? Or has it always been there?

[snow_wizard]

Analogs on tonight's GFS run are the same as they've been the last couple of days.  1954, 1957, 1962, 1989.  The whole thing just comes down to details.  The big players are in the right places.