PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[The Blob]

Happy New Years everyone!

[RentonHill]

You got one shot at a thread title and you blew it!!!

[RentonHill]

EPS candygrams. Better! But long ways to go. Get rid of the extreme bad scenarios first

[Anti Marine Layer]

Happy New Year. The first crime of 2022 was just committed here with some guys shooting illegal fireworks.

[The Blob]

7 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

You got one shot at a thread title and you blew it!!!

Don't worry, @iFredwill make a new thread in about 4 days.

[Tyler Mode]

23...not a bad way to greet 2022.

[TeacherLori]

Happy New Year!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Happy New Year

Temp: 23.5, Dewpoint: 15.8. CLEAR skies. ENE wind 16.9mph

C O L D !!!!

[RentonHill]

Only 11 degrees to go!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Had to plug this song by Macklemore as my wife is one of the choir members who sung backup for the song.  Recorded in Ryan Lewis's studio outside of Leavenworth.

 

[FroYoBro]

Down to 24 already in the warm burbs. 

[Cloud]

It's 1AM in the morning and it's 17F out... these fookers needs to stop lighting fireworks. Scaring my dog. 

[MossMan]

Happy New Year and goodnight! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That -11 at La Grande right now is pretty impressive. In fact it's only 1 off the record from 1979.

Other impressive temps in E. Oregon. In addition there is a station near North Powder that is at -26 right now. 

-20 Seneca 

-18 Imbler

-16 Meacham

-16 Sumpter 

-14 North Powder

-12 Echo

- 11 Baker City

-11 Prairie City

-7 Joseph

- 7 Cove

-4 Monument

-4 Hermiston

-3 Maupin

 

 

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Single digits at Hood River now. 

[Cloud]

Just want to echo the sentiment of a better 2022! 2021 was a very very shittty year for our family and for me personally. 

[Cloud]

Just touched 16F.

Now easily the coldest temps of this cold snap since Boxing Day. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to -24 at Seneca, let's see if they can make a run at -30. It's the coldest spot in Oregon historically, but they haven't done as well in recent years. I'm really impressed by the cold in the Grande Ronde Valley too. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

-15 at Colville

-4 at Tri Cities 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to -15 at Baker City now. Their record for the date is -27 in 1979 however, one of their coldest lows of all time. -15 would be a record for the 2nd or 3rd. 

[Cloud]

This actually don't look half bad to me at all. Granted it's for KPAE but I'm liking the fact that we are not torching. Would like to keep January fairly below normal with some fake cold in play. Also looking at the December thread, there may be some signs of the block rebuilding 3rd week of Jan period. 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

-15 at Colville

-4 at Tri Cities 

5 minute observations shows Tri Cities hit -6 four times. Do they use those for official readings?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

5 minute observations shows Tri Cities hit -6 four times. Do they use those for official readings?

Yes. If it hits between a 5 min ob it will go on the daily climate report. Sometimes those readings are one degree off due to rounding errors. But it's safe to say they hit at least -5. 

 

[RayRay]

Can anybody confirm record temperature low for Bremerton Ntnl Airport?

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Bremerton+Junction&state=WA&site=SEW&textField1=47.5314&textField2=-122.733#.YdAY5C2ZO7o

https://w1.weather.gov/obhistory/KPWT.html

National Weather Service : Observed Weather for past 3 Days : Bremerton, Bremerton National Airport.pdf

[snow_wizard]

20 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Just want to echo the sentiment of a better 2022! 2021 was a very very shittty year for our family and for me personally. 

Same here.  2020 was a sheit show too.

[Cloud]

We may have a couple hours of cooling left. IR shows some high clouds moving in that could put a cap to the temps. Have to see if it does and how cold we'll get. 

https://atmos.uw.edu/current-weather/northwest-ir-satellite/

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, RayRay said:

Can anybody confirm record temperature low for Bremerton Ntnl Airport?

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Bremerton+Junction&state=WA&site=SEW&textField1=47.5314&textField2=-122.733#.YdAY5C2ZO7o

https://w1.weather.gov/obhistory/KPWT.html

National Weather Service : Observed Weather for past 3 Days : Bremerton, Bremerton National Airport.pdf 99.8 kB · 0 downloads

11 for 12/31 and 14 for 1/1

The records don't seem to be complete for Bremerton though.  Jan 1950 is missing and probably other heavy hitters.

[The Blob]

I want a repeat of January 2017 for PDX.

[snow_wizard]

Currently 16 degrees here.  Nice to see Jan will begin with some major cold in place.

As I mentioned in the other thread the 0z ECMWF only shows two days going above 40 for SEA over the next 10 days and only one low over 33.

[Cloud]

As cold as it is for OLM... amazingly, it won't be anywhere near record. Crazy!

 

[snow_wizard]

The EPS control is seriously going places by mid month.

[Cloud]

I am absolutely loving this cold tbh. With decent snow cover in place, I've been waiting for us to clear out and just knock the temps down. Went outside couple times already and it feels wonderful. Snow is also crusty. I wish every winter can be like this! 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

As cold as it is for OLM... amazingly, it won't be anywhere near record. Crazy!

 

Yeah....those OLM records from 1978-79 are insane.  I'm not even sure if there was much snow on the ground.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

I am absolutely loving this cold tbh. With decent snow cover in place, I've been waiting for us to clear out and just knock the temps down. Went outside couple times already and it feels wonderful. Snow is also crusty. I wish every winter can be like this! 

The snow here is dense and crunchy now.  Love it!  For me this is probably the best run of winter weather this century so far.  It has worked out very well for my microclimate.

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The snow here is dense and crunchy now.  Love it!  For me this is probably the best run of winter weather this century so far.  It has worked out very well for my microclimate.

Can't ask for better timing when we are still literally at shortest daylight times of the year. Of course, I'm hoping for more to come and we'll have a winter to remember. 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Can't ask for better timing when we are still literally at shortest daylight times of the year. Of course, I'm hoping for more to come and we'll have a winter to remember. 

Historically speaking the very best events come in roughly the Jan 15 to Feb 5 time frame.  A period that has refused to produce for a long time.  Good shot this time.

[Cloud]

OLM 7

PWT 5 (Bremerton)

TCM 12 (McChord)

BFI 17

Dang impressive. 

[Cloud]

Sunday night, Monday morning thingy. Lotsa snow. 

[Cloud]

From a run to run change perspective, this run is a couple degrees colder than the 00z during the time the very heavy precipitation takes place. Going to make a huge difference between just all snow or rain/snow mixed. Seattle stays below freezing throughout. 

[RayRay]

60F or 15 C in my bedroom. so cold... i am gonna be stuck under my covers all night... its absolutely freezing outside... the upstairs fire I should start soon before I go to bed or I will freeze.

[The Blob]

Phone says 23 here

[Cloud]

This run amazingly has us stay cold through next week with another significant snowstorm coming in Wednesday night. 

[Gradient Keeper]

La Grande hit -18? No way!

[snow_wizard]

So the GFS ups the ante even more.  Geeze.

[Cloud]

Wow... this is a crazy 6z run. We go back into the icebox heading into day 10 but the upper levels are warm, so a serious inversion? Back to back outlier op runs? 

Unfortunately, it appears people are all modeled out as well... any other times, this run would get the night shift popping with what it's showing for Sunday night and the mid-week again for Seattle. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Hood River 5 degrees!

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Cloud said:

Wow... this is a crazy 6z run. We go back into the icebox heading into day 10 but the upper levels are warm, so a serious inversion? Back to back outlier op runs? 

Unfortunately, it appears people are all modeled out as well... any other times, this run would get the night shift popping with what it's showing for Sunday night and the mid-week again for Seattle. 

6z same progression as previous runs. After day 7 big ridge develops over us. Inversions strengthens, low level cold pool develops and intensifies quickly with big time east winds.

[Gradient Keeper]

Temp: 23.2, Dewpoint: 15.1. CLEAR skies and east winds 13.8mph. I am heading off. Have a great night or early morning!

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Wow... this is a crazy 6z run. We go back into the icebox heading into day 10 but the upper levels are warm, so a serious inversion? Back to back outlier op runs? 

Unfortunately, it appears people are all modeled out as well... any other times, this run would get the night shift popping with what it's showing for Sunday night and the mid-week again for Seattle. 

This would be amazing if it happens.  Beyond amazing.  If the precip intensity it's showing with the Sunday night system is accurate I think it will happen.  Maybe something like Feb 2017?

[Cloud]

So the potential for the second week or possibly 3rd week of January looks fantastic. Base off of various ensemble runs and the GFS op runs continues to show the block retrograde back to GoA in the LR, this looks to set the table for arctic air to move back to us after the fake cold. Can't really ask for anything better if you're a cold fan. An exciting January on tap.