Jump to content
The Weather Forums

Jan 5th-7th Snowfall Potential (2 Separate Systems) - GL's Lake Effect Machine


Tom
 Share

Recommended Posts

13 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z GFS is starting to catch on to the southern storm

snku_acc.us_c.png

snku_acc.us_mw.png

I can see your area getting some accumulating snow w/ this bud......couple of inches at least.

  • Like 1

Final Snowfall as of today July 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Niko said:

I can see your area getting some accumulating snow w/ this bud......couple of inches at least.

I hope so, it would be nice to get a few inches.  The NAM has this feeding up your way kind of like your AFD mentioned.

  • Snow 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I hope so, it would be nice to get a few inches.  The NAM has this feeding up your way kind of like your AFD mentioned.

 Hopefully that verifies. Would like it to go a little bit more neg-tilt, but we will see. That CF coming on Wednesday kinda pushes the Thurs-Fri system a bit too far south, but we will see what happens.

Btw: Huntsville, AL received 7" of snow today 😅 That is more snow than what NYC or Boston currently have for the season so far.. This goes to show you how crazy weather can be.

  • Like 3

Final Snowfall as of today July 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Hello everyone. Took some time off as I’ve been battling Covid for the last few weeks. Now I’m dealing with Post Covid pneumonia. Went to the doctor and I think I’m on the road to recovery. Probably the worst sickness I’ve ever had. I read the comments from many of you about my absence and I really appreciated them. Weather was just not my top priority the last month. Forecast say potential for 6” on Wednesday. 

We completely understand bud and I'm glad to hear your doing better.  Many on here seem to have been effected one way or another.  Sign of the times.  Looking forward to reading your comments!

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

12z CMC just came out with clear skies for KC tomorrow evening. LOL The once very snowy CMC

Another tough forecast for KC. We'll see which way the EURO goes, it has been consistent with a 1-3 inch snow in KC.

Global models say nada!  Hi-res models are able to pick up this disturbance but there is no margin for error in KC.

15z RAP

snku_acc.us_mw.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Global models say nada!  Hi-res models are able to pick up this disturbance but there is no margin for error in KC.

15z RAP

snku_acc.us_mw.png

Per Gary’s blog this morning, this system last cycle came thru and dropped about a quarter inch of precip so the disturbance is there. We just have to track to see where it goes and how much moisture it will produce this time 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Winter Storm Warning.  

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO
7 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow, heavy at times, and strong winds expected. Total
  snow accumulations of 4 to 9 inches. Winds gusting as high as
  50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest and west central Michigan.

* WHEN...From 4 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. Scattered power
  outages are possible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Near blizzard conditions and occasional
  whiteouts may occur. Localized heavy lake effect snow and
  hazardous travel conditions could continue into Thursday and
  Thursday night for portions of western Lower Michigan.
  • Excited 1
  • Snow 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

area around Sisseton,Wheaton SD must rank very high in # of Blizzard Warnings issued. I believe it's there 3 or 4th all ready this year.

image.png.445da8ab8dc66bb0c7246c2d22338bb6.png

  • Like 2
  • scream 1

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

18z

snku_acc.us_c (1).png

Lines up with what the KC office is saying.  I do think there will be a band of higher accumulations somewhere near by.  Sadly this would be our highest snowfall of the season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If the 00z NAM ends up being correct, I will have missed both of KC's "snowstorms" by about 30 miles in each direction.  The airport got 2.2 inches last week, while I got a dusting.  KCI is 30 miles north of me. The NAM says that about 25 miles south of me is supposed to get 6 inches of snow tomorrow night while I get a dusting.  So even within the KC metro region, I may end up being right in between the two measurable snows. 

Edit:  The other mesoscale models look to be following suit with pushing the snow south of the KC metro.  So if you ever said to yourself, "dang, that guy is always so negative."  Now you know why.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

If the 00z NAM ends up being correct, I will have missed both of KC's "snowstorms" by about 30 miles in each direction.  The airport got 2.2 inches last week, while I got a dusting.  KCI is 30 miles north of me. The NAM says that about 30 miles south of me is supposed to get 6 inches of snow tomorrow night while I get a dusting.  So even within the KC metro region, I may end up being right in between the two measurable snows. 

I like how the NAM has been steady in producing accumulations, lets hope it goes north and widens out a little.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I like how the NAM has been steady in producing accumulations, lets hope it goes north and widens out a little.

Agreed.  But if Miami County, KS gets 6 inches, and I get 1 inch or less, I'm going to lose it.  I mean, it would be difficult to be in a worse spot in the entire Midwest for barely missing snow.  If it was just the NAM going south a little bit, I wouldn't be so nervous.  But the HRW models did the same thing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Agreed.  But if Miami County, KS gets 6 inches, and I get 1 inch or less, I'm going to lose it.  I mean, it would be difficult to be in a worse spot in the entire Midwest for barely missing snow.  

I'm in the same boat, on that run I would get 1.5 while Henry, County would get over 6.  I miss the days when we had better than a 50 mile wide band of snow.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I'm in the same boat, on that run I would get 1.5 while Henry, County would get over 6.  I miss the days when we had better than a 50 mile wide band of snow.

HRR still better than the NAM, but it went south too.  Something in the data definitely pushed things south since this afternoon.  I guess the cold dry air moving in from the north? Which is funny because that didn't hurt Iowa last week when they got 6+ inches.  This area can't win for losing. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here's a picture to put it in perspective.  The yellow areas recently got, or are forecasted by the NAM to get, more than 2 inches of snow (2 inches isn't all that much to ask).   The orange area is predicted by the NAM to get 4* inches.  I live pretty close to Olathe on the SW side of the city.  

Untitled.jpg

  • Sad 1
  • scream 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The I-70 corridor from Topeka to KC has been a dead zone for years. I never take any model seriously that places this area in the axis of heaviest snow which they rarely do anyway. It always a question of will we get missed to the north or missed to the south. You'd think dumb luck would give us a major snowstorm now and then but it never happens. As I've noted before, the last Topeka snowfall greater than 6" was nearly 8 years ago, Feb 4, 2014. I need a new hobby..lol

  • 21-22 Total Snowfall: 21.1" (123% of seasonal normal 17.1" )
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

The I-70 corridor from Topeka to KC has been a dead zone for years. I never take any model seriously that places this area in the axis of heaviest snow which they rarely do anyway. It always a question of will we get missed to the north or missed to the south. You'd think dumb luck would give us a major snowstorm now and then but it never happens. As I've noted before, the last Topeka snowfall greater than 6" was nearly 8 years ago, Feb 4, 2014. I need a new hobby..lol

Chief Tonganoxie needs to reverse the curse.

  • lol 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

While not the way I had envisioned this system to set up,  Blitz Warnings have been issued again for the Upper MW...I did think this storm would have a chance to track a little farther south but the blocking disappeared just as the storm approached.  Bad luck!  Good luck to those up north who are in for a treat.

Screen Shot 2022-01-05 at 1.07.06 AM.png

 

Man, the LES machine looks fantastic for SW MI...1st legit set up in prob a few years, right?

1.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Tom unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share


×
×
  • Create New...