TT-SEA Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 00Z ECMWF sure is ugly at 240 hours... looks like a warm rain pattern. http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015112600!!chart.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 This would be interesting. FB_IMG_1448518673355.jpgThat looks like a major storm face value if the tracks over southern tip of Vancouver island, 50 plus wind gusts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 Interesting to see the GFS and ECMWF both indicate we will go back to a stormy pattern with a good chance of a fire hose again. Looks like we could easily see another shot at some cold assuming the basic regime repeats again. Pretty interesting how 2006 has been a very strong analog the past several GFS runs. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 This would be interesting. FB_IMG_1448518673355.jpgDoes the Euro show this? I really need to buy a generator. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 Good point snow wiz. Still no sign of an el Nino split flow pattern, which is really good. Just a fire hose, followed by a modified arctic outbreak, at least here that is, then back to fire hose relatively soon. Hopefully we all get a severe arctic outbreak this winter. Happy Thanksgiving all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 00Z ECMWF sure is ugly at 240 hours... looks like a warm rain pattern. http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015112600!!chart.gifTalk about a nationwide blowtorch. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 Does the Euro show this? I really need to buy a generator.It also has a very strong storm (968mb) but the low goes way further North so it wouldn't be windy here. Definitely potential for wind the second half of next week though. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 Happy Thanksgiving to everyone. Or as our Canadian friends call it ..."Thursday". Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 24 current degrees.Happy Thanksgiving! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 00Z ECMWF sure is ugly at 240 hours... looks like a warm rain pattern. http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015112600!!chart.gifNow wouldn't it be cool if this is all the models showed leading up to maybe hour, hmmm, gee i don't know 36 or something(I don't know much), and then flipped and it went all cold? I mean isn't that the typical mode of operation with these computer models? show one thing and then verify another? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 22 here so far this morning… 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 Mid-20s at PDX this morning. A chilly 27 here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 12Z GFS is much drier for early next week at least. Starting to back off. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 12Z GFS is much drier for early next week at least. Starting to back off. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 Corvallis 21 at their hourly update. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 12Z GFS is much drier for early next week at least. Starting to back off.How about late in the week? Windstorm? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 How about late in the week? Windstorm? Completely gone. Much drier all week. A little rain maybe Thursday or Friday per that run. Everything is much farther west. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catnip Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 Completely gone. Much drier all week. A little rain maybe Thursday or Friday per that run. Everything is much farther west. Mr. Stuff will be happy to hear that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 Happy discount shopping day everyone! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 Next week I'll probably tally up all my rain and see how much more or if I already am at average precipitation. I'm guessing I'm not quite there yet, but we'll see. It will be close. I'm guessing I'm in the 70" range right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 Haha, ouch. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 00Z Euro is torchy and wet. 5.4" of rain through 10 days, and highs in mid 50's for up here. It will be interesting to see if the 12Z is much different. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 24 at PDX!19 at OLM and 30 at SEA 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 Arlington came in with 18F this morning, I had 21F here. It almost looks like it snowed here with so much frost. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 Burns, Oregon hit -8. Only up to 4 as of 10am. Pretty good basin inversion there. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 The WRF is advertising a possible freezing rain event toward the middle of next week. It even shows the Seattle well below 40 with rain. If things continue to unfold in this way Portland will have a good chance of seeing rain with temps well below freezing. The WRF is normally VERY conservative with showing shallow low level cold. Either they fixed that bias or this going to be a serious inversion. Strangely the WRF shows Portland no colder than Seattle with the inversion which is obviously not going to happen. Both the 0z and 12z GFS like the idea of a cool regime setting up for the NW later in week 2. The 12z shows a very suppressed jet over the West, but no sign of typical Nino split flow. I think we have a great chance of seeing another good setup for delivering Arctic air a bit down the road. It's a bummer the situation a couple of days ago didn't have some cold over BC to tap into. From an upper level and surface pressure perspective it was a pretty classic Arctic outbreak pattern. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 The cold subsurface water under the Nino regions is making its move. It appears this Nino could collapse very suddenly when it does like it did in 1998. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 Another interesting note about ENSO is this month will one of the highest SOI Novembers ever recorded during a Nino. It will by far be the highest during a strong Nino. It looks like it will end around zero while 1982 was -30 and 1997 was -22. No doubt something is suppressing the effects of the Nino thus far. OLR anomalies between 5N and 5S, 160W to 160E should be off the charts negative right now and it's basically neutral. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 Pretty impressed with the 24 at PDX this morning. MOS guidance shows them with highs in the 30s by Sunday. And, as Jim was saying, that models is usually pretty conservative with inversions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 12Z ECMWF is splitty and warm at 240 hours. Let's keep analyzing the GFS in the long range though. Very productive. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 Metro low temps: 22 at VUO 20 at HIO 22 at SPB 27 at TTD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 We're going to need more Euro support before getting our hopes up about having an even halfway decent pattern the first part of December. Maybe the low level cold will stay intact with that drier, splitter solution, at least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 24 at SLE23 at EUG21 at CVO Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 Another interesting note about ENSO is this month will one of the highest SOI Novembers ever recorded during a Nino. It will by far be the highest during a strong Nino. It looks like it will end around zero while 1982 was -30 and 1997 was -22. No doubt something is suppressing the effects of the Nino thus far. OLR anomalies between 5N and 5S, 160W to 160E should be off the charts negative right now and it's basically neutral.Isn't the MJO the thing suppressing the Nino? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 I hit 20 this morning. Currently 32. It will be a chilly afternon in Eugene for the Civil War bloodbath tomorrow. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 Salem and pdx warming nicely again today. Eugene and corvallis still in the 30s. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 Meanwhile Burns up to 7. I doubt they get out of the teens today. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 These well below freezing temps are great because it will kill all of the annoying flowers that try to keep blooming all winter during mild years. Nothing worse than seeing blooming flowers anytime from November-February at our latitude. Winter should be winter. Having them in some state of bloom year round cheapens their return in the springtime, IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 Up to 43 here. Seem to be warming rather quickly. Then again it is completely sunny. Hoping to get some NE winds in here again to dry things out, then it can decouple tonight and get into the teens hopefully. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 Isn't the MJO the thing suppressing the Nino?Intraseasonal IO forcing. Next week, the IO will shut down and Niño forcing will return, as will the -SOI. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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