PNW February 2022 - Winters Last Stand

[MossMan]

It’s over. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It’s over. 

Nah. It is what it is, a dry chilly trough. Probably similar to what we saw to close out February 2020. Best case scenario is a March 14, 2020 type of event. 

[TacomaWaWx]

14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Any guesses as to why our weather always sucks? In terms of airmasses it doesn’t get much better than this so late in the year. Moisture is the problem, need some juice to get sticking snow below 1000’ in late February and it doesn’t look like we get that. Maybe in some favored Randy type areas. 

Yeah, I’ll probably go on a hike out to green mountain or somewhere close by to get my snow fix next week. Our weather doesn’t always suck lol but then again it’s been a lot different the last few years up here. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nah. It is what it is, a dry chilly trough. Probably similar to what we saw to close out February 2020. Best case scenario is a March 14, 2020 type of event. 

PDX had a 48/37 day at its coldest the last 1/3 of February 2020 wouldn’t be too hard to beat that unless models do a huge 180 the next few days 

[awright-31]

 

02-16-2022 OBS for MBY

High temp - 51* at 3:00 pm 
Low temp - 33* at 10:30 pm

New precip - 0.00"
February precip to date- 0.30"
We have recieved 7% of our normal February precip 57% of the way through the month.

New snow - 0"
Winter 21-22 Snow to Date - 10.9"

[ShawniganLake]

40 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah this time of year…we need something like 510. Just not much precip either but should be good for the mountains and Atleast it’ll feel like winter. 

It’s plenty cold enough for snow. But this trajectory generally is pretty dry for most. 

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, The Blob said:

I forgot to mention that I already started some tomatoes and chili's for summer.

I would wait on the pot plants as well,  too cold

[Cascadia_Wx]

Cloudy and mildish 50/41 here yesterday mostly cloudy this morning with a low of 41 again 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Low of 37 this morning. Euro still looks pretty good even increased the snow coverage a bit…pretty marginal though. 515dm heights but the 510 line never crosses into western WA. Looks like 850mb temps go as low as -13. 

At face value that would be a top tier airmass for this late in the season at least in terms of cold. That said it’s always likely the models will pull back a little leading up to the event 

[Phishy Wx]

12z GEM is frigid

[MossMan]

24 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nah. It is what it is, a dry chilly trough. Probably similar to what we saw to close out February 2020. Best case scenario is a March 14, 2020 type of event. 

My kids looked bundled up the end of February 2020 and I was starting the garden cleanup on 3/15/20. I have no pictures of 3/14/20 so let’s just bring on the spring warmth then. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

12z GEM is frigid

12z GFs ensembles look about as cold as previous runs too 

[SnowWillarrive]

35 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It’s over. 

Not for Puget Sound area. We might score again. 

[ShawniganLake]

5 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

12z GEM is frigid

It pulled back from the 0z though. Doesn’t dig the trough as far west. 

[Phishy Wx]

brrr

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

13 minutes ago, MossMan said:

My kids looked bundled up the end of February 2020 and I was starting the garden cleanup on 3/15/20. I have no pictures of 3/14/20 so let’s just bring on the spring warmth then. 

It snowed a couple inches here on the 29th and about 4" on 3/14/20. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah 850mb temps drop to -10.1C at PDX for the mean on the 12z GFS. Really good stuff, my guess is we don't verify that cold, but maybe around -8C. Just very sparse moisture. Remember models always overdo the low level cold. Coldest day at PDX probably ends up 44/27 or something along those lines. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

One trend not liking is how aggressively many models seem to want to build ridging back in right after the cold shot 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Airmass also moderates much quicker on the 12z, models also moving away from that secondary slider later in the week. Makes sense given what a boring and mild winter we have had. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

One trend not liking is how aggressively many models seem to want to build ridging back in right after the cold shot 

The door to the Pacific does seem to open a bit later on, though things are a little splitty. This is the most consolidated system. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Airmass also moderates much quicker on the 12z, models also moving away from that secondary slider later in the week. Makes sense given what a boring and mild winter we have had. 

The upcoming event won’t seem good until we are looking at stats for it in 3-4 years

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The door to the Pacific does seem to open a bit later on, though things are a little splitty. This is the most consolidated system. 

This run bucks that trend nicely hope to see it keep up 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Overall the 12z is a step forward in the big picture. 

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah this time of year…we need something like 510. Just not much precip either but should be good for the mountains and Atleast it’ll feel like winter. 

Generally anything under 522 is still good enough for lowland snow now. It's just that precip rates become much more important as we get further into sun angle fun season. Which is why stronger onshore flow is actually sometimes better starting about now in terms of driving more snow opportunities in the lowlands.

[ShawniganLake]

44 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Overall the 12z is a step forward in the big picture. 

Ukmet went satanic cold on the 12z. 

[ShawniganLake]

850s of -14C at Pdx

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

850s of -14C at Pdx

The UKMET was showing ridiculous temps for the December event too. Way too optimistic.

[Phishy Wx]

UKIE is usually Dookie

[SilverFallsAndrew]

UKMET for the win!

[Cascadia_Wx]

Euro seems to be sticking to its guns with the cold. A notch or two colder than the 00z. It was the first model to bite on colder solutions and doesn’t seem ready to let go

[ShawniganLake]

23 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

The UKMET was showing ridiculous temps for the December event too. Way too optimistic.

Euro looks pretty similar. Within a degree or so.  
 

[Phishy Wx]

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Euro seems to be sticking to its guns with the cold. A notch or two colder than the 00z. It was the first model to bite on colder solutions and doesn’t seem ready to let go

yep, maybe even a tick colder for next wed

[ShawniganLake]

Euro looks a little more interesting later next week. Cold air gets a little secondary boost before the ridge pinches off.  Perhaps some over running snow?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Regardless all models seem to be trending towards a wetter period around day 10. Really like the direction the GFS ensembles seem to be going once we get into March. 

[Omegaraptor]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Regardless all models seem to be trending towards a wetter period around day 10. Really like the direction the GFS ensembles seem to be going once we get into March. 

First legitimate SW’rly flow signature in nearly two months. No sign of death ridging anywhere in the Pacific.

Hopefully the snow levels are low enough to be beneficial rather than detrimental to snowpack and skiing.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Heavy rain, where we need it...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EURO Snow. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

10 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

First legitimate SW’rly flow signature in nearly two months. No sign of death ridging anywhere in the Pacific.

Hopefully the snow levels are low enough to be beneficial rather than detrimental to snowpack and skiing.

Looks like Corvallis scored a freeze this morning 

[GHweatherChris]

Meh, next!

[Phishy Wx]

Just now, GHweatherChris said:

Meh, next!

CYA in December!!!