PNW February 2022 - Winters Last Stand

[jakerepp]

Well it's nice to have something quasi interesting to track now. It's been such a snooze fest lately. 

[ShawniganLake]

Jim was right. We are going to get hit again 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

AND HERE WE GO.

[ShawniganLake]

7th strait 50+ here today. Haven’t seen that in February since 2015

[Phishy Wx]

Per NWS Spokane morning discussion,  hints at Thundersnow sunday afternoon in E WA and says the NBM is catching up to other models and could still go even colder.

 

...PATTERN SHIFT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATE
TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW AND POSSIBLE ARCTIC INTRUSION...

Saturday through Sunday night: It`s looking more and more likely
that winter will be returning to the Inland Northwest. A shift in
the longwave pressure pattern is coming with what we typically
asociated with La Nina winters: longwave ridge of high pressure
builds over the Gulf of Alaska resulting in a stronger northerly
flow component into the region.

 

A 500 mb cold pool with temperatures dropping to around -34
degrees celsius will also result in more convective showers for
Sunday afternoon. Models are indicating skinny CAPE over the
southeast portion of the region. It`s not out of the question that
a few lightning strikes pop off with convective cells that
develop.

Monday through Thursday: Models are continuing with the trend that
an Arctic front will push across the region. There is better
agreement and the NBM has continued to lower temperatures for
early next week. It`s quite possible, if not probably, that the
NBM is lagging behind this trend of much colder temperatures. It
looks as if the Arctic front will push across around Monday
afternoon or evening. This will come with bitterly cold north
winds. It may come as a shock to the system with the mild
temperatures we have been experiencing. North to northeast winds
with gusts of 25 to 35 mph is generally anticipated down the
Okanogan Valley, Purcell Trench and out across the basin as this
Arctic front pushes across. There will also likely be some snow
showers that accompany the front. Temperatures will plummet
Monday night and cold wind chills will be factor into Tuesday.
High temperatures look to go from the 40s on Sunday to the 20s to
30s across the northern valleys on Monday. Cold air will spread
out further into Tuesday with most places unlikely to warm up
above freezing. Widespread single digit low temperatures are
expected during this period as well. Wednesday morning may be the
coldest of the week as winds die off, skies clear out, and much of
the region sees strong radiational cooling. /SVH

[RentonHill]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Improving, and dovetails nicely with the 12z CFS... AKA THE MONSTER

[Dave]

Looks cold and dry.

 

[Meatyorologist]

6 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Any guesses as to why our weather always sucks? In terms of airmasses it doesn’t get much better than this so late in the year. Moisture is the problem, need some juice to get sticking snow below 1000’ in late February and it doesn’t look like we get that. Maybe in some favored Randy type areas. 

pasiphic oshen

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z is quite a bit cooler next week than the 12z. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

51F and clouding up.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

51F and clouding up.

It’s coming! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

51F and clouding up.

47 with severe clear here. Are you ready to record a low in the teens?!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Really nice run. 

[MossMan]

Looks fun in Kansas City! 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS ensembles bottom out a tad warmer at PDX. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

47 with severe clear here. Are you ready to record a low in the teens?!

Haven't really been paying attention. I've been totally dialed in on college hoops and corresponding with HoopsHD as the season is in the home stretch. Turned off my WB subscription this month since winter has seemed over and the weeds here are all going full spring. Ran out of propane for them yesterday.

Lows in the teens being depicted? Lol yeah, I'll be shocked to see anything below 26F. We haven't been colder than that here since hitting 23F on October 26 of 2020. We haven't been down into the teens since Jan 6, 2017.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Haven't really been paying attention. I've been totally dialed in on college hoops and corresponding with HoopsHD as the season is in the home stretch. Turned off my WB subscription this month since winter has seemed over and the weeds here are all going full spring. Ran out of propane for them yesterday.

Lows in the teens being depicted? Lol yeah, I'll be shocked to see anything below 26F. We haven't been colder than that here since hitting 23F on October 26 of 2020. We haven't been down into the teens since Jan 6, 2017.

According to God Emperor EURO. 

[Phil]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'm really tired of people dumping on the CFS, it is often a trend setter. It does fluctuate wildly sometimes, but let's not just throw it out. Especially when it shows what we want!

The CFS is a piece of junk.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

The CFS is a piece of junk.

Totally unnecessarily and uncalled for. 

[Phil]

I’d been casually monitoring the 500mb pattern and am surprised at some of the projected thermals in the PNW.

At face value it doesn’t look like a noteworthy pattern, but seems as if the right ingredients appear to be in place at the right time for a solid cold shot.

Let’s hope the trend is our friend this time..it has been so far. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, Phil said:

I’d been casually monitoring the 500mb pattern and am surprised at some of the projected thermals in the PNW.

At face value (aloft) it doesn’t look like a noteworthy pattern, but clearly the right ingredients appear to be in place at the right   time for a solid cold shot. 

If a CCG presents itself then things get interesting.

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Totally unnecessarily and uncalled for. 

The truth can hurt.

[ShawniganLake]

20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GFS ensembles bottom out a tad warmer at PDX. 

It’s over. 
 

 

[GHweatherChris]

[GHweatherChris]

4 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Any true member of this forum knows what this means!!

[Kayla]

Yeah so uhhh...this is going to be a hard pass for me! Ensemble mean!?!

[MWG]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We should expect the EURO to take a step back this evening. 

[GHweatherChris]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We should expect the EURO to take a step back this evening. 

[Dave]

23 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Yeah so uhhh...this is going to be a hard pass for me! Ensemble mean!?!

My buddy that just moved to Kalispell right before the winter has remarked about how the winters here "aren't bad at all". I hope he get his @ss handed to him. He doesn't even like cold or snow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 minutes ago, Dave said:

My buddy that just moved to Kalispell right before the winter has remarked about how the winters here "aren't bad at all". I hope he get his @ss handed to him. He doesn't even like cold or snow.

Kalispell is gorgeous.

[MossMan]

Noticed my non dog molested grass has really greened up over the last two days. Enough for me to stop as I was pulling down my driveway and take a picture. 
It’s coming. 

[Tyler Mode]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Noticed my non dog molested grass has really greened up over the last two days. Enough for me to stop as I was pulling down my driveway and take a picture. 
It’s coming. 

Just noticed the same thing last night!  Afraid to mow already...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Generalized ensemble improvements.

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Generalized ensemble improvements.

march madness coming together

[TacomaWaWx]

46/37 here today. Drizzle fest currently. 

[RentonHill]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

46/37 here today. Drizzle fest currently. 

Really nice here. 48/32 and sunny. 

[TT-SEA]

22 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

46/37 here today. Drizzle fest currently. 

Wow... totally dry all day here.