PNW February 2022 - Winters Last Stand

[MossMan]

4yrs ago today was EPIC! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

4yrs ago today was EPIC! 

I used to remember dates like that, then the pandemic happened and now my memory is screwed. 

[BLI snowman]

GEM trended way colder again from the 00z.

[Loniu7]

I know it's just gonna snow! Why? Because my fan for my heater/ac decided when it wants to work. So crossing fingers I can just just tap the blower fan and alls good

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM ensembles bottom out at -12C at PDX. LOL

[RentonHill]

Euro appears a little colder so far. 

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Euro appears a little colder so far. 

eh maybe not

[Omegaraptor]

Long range starting to look legit zonal with no big ridges anywhere in the Pacific.

[RentonHill]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

eh maybe not

conflicting reports

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

conflicting reports

Looks pretty much the same to me. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF increased snow amounts from the 00Z run...

 

[GHweatherChris]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF increased snow amounts from the 00Z run...

 

[GHweatherChris]

Perfect time for some potential goodies, start my new job on Monday morning, 100% work from home all the time!!

[SnowWillarrive]

28 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF increased snow amounts from the 00Z run...

 

Mind posting the closer view of just Western Wa?

[SnarkyGoblin]

5 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Perfect time for some potential goodies, start my new job on Monday morning, 100% work from home all the time!!

Congrats on the job!

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Perfect time for some potential goodies, start my new job on Monday morning, 100% work from home all the time!!

Congrats!!! 

[Phishy Wx]

13 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Perfect time for some potential goodies, start my new job on Monday morning, 100% work from home all the time!!

WFH is the best, I'll never go back to an office

[SilverFallsAndrew]

15 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

So nice to see the ensembles trending wetter!

IDK if you saw, I was looking at the PRISM dataset last night and for my area March 2018-2021 is the driest 4 year stretch in March since 1923-26. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EPS ensemble mean dips to -10.5C at PDX. 

[The Blob]

11 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

Does anyone drink Mt. Dew? If so, have you tried any of the new ones? I used to 'Do the Dew' years ago, but not anymore. I have tried single bottles of Voltage, not so great. I just tried Major Melon. That is NASTY! LOL. Code red is decent. Anyhow....

6z GFS in 1 hour 24 minutes

I use to, but my stomach can't handle sugary stuff anymore so if I do drink soda it's low sugar or sugar free.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS... getting much closer to normal precip over the next 2 weeks.

[bainbridgekid]

Will be nice for the mountains to get a good dump of snow this weekend. Should be close to a foot of powder at Stevens when I go Sunday. Been a while since there was any fresh snow on a weekend up there and there have been some horribly icy days the last several weeks.

[TT-SEA]

Gorgeous day here... sunny and 51.

We have a tree removal company here today taking down a bunch of fir trees that have grown ridiculously tall since we built the house and were now blocking our views and the afternoon sun in our backyard.    They had basically become a large wall.    And in a couple years there will be new trees growing tall to take their place.     I need to keep up on it while they are small.    At this point they have to top them first and then take the bottom half down separately.     They were about as tall as my 4-year old boys when we moved into this house.  

[Omegaraptor]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS... getting much closer to normal precip over the next 2 weeks.

Poor NorCal. Can’t catch a break.

Really want to take a road trip to Lassen NP and Tahoe sometime. Hard to plan that when the entire north state is burning or under noxious 300 AQI smoke by the Fourth.

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Gorgeous day here... sunny and 51.

We have a tree removal company here today taking down a bunch of fir trees that have grown ridiculously tall since we built the house and were now blocking our views and the afternoon sun in our backyard.    They had basically become a large wall.    And in a couple years there will be new trees growing tall to take their place.     I need to keep up on it while they are small.    At this point they have to top them first and then take the bottom half down separately.     They were about as tall as my 4-year old boys when we moved into this house.  

Was gorgeous here earlier but the clouds really came on quickly and thick. 

[TacomaWaWx]

No sunshine at all here today and 46. Euro still looks pretty good and snow chances seem to be a little higher than a couple days ago. 

[TT-SEA]

[SouthHillFrosty]

12 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

Does anyone drink Mt. Dew? If so, have you tried any of the new ones? I used to 'Do the Dew' years ago, but not anymore. I have tried single bottles of Voltage, not so great. I just tried Major Melon. That is NASTY! LOL. Code red is decent. Anyhow....

6z GFS in 1 hour 24 minutes

Baja blast is top tier. Any other Mountain Dew flavor is mid

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 hour ago, GHweatherChris said:

Perfect time for some potential goodies, start my new job on Monday morning, 100% work from home all the time!!

Congrats bro!!

[TacomaWaWx]

Shawnigan lake, snowmizer tim and randy will probably do fine early next week. I expect we will atleast see some snowflakes…but we don’t tend to do well here in spare NW flow precip set ups. 

[Omegaraptor]

Sorry about the screen window but extremely heavy fog early this morning. Corvallis has cleared but satellite shows fog in Lebanon/Sweet Home which I hope burns off before I drive through later.

[FroYoBro]

All sunshine here and a really beautiful afternoon. Would be fun to see a little snow next week, but not expecting much in the lowlands.

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Shawnigan lake, snowmizer tim and randy will probably do fine early next week. I expect we will atleast see some snowflakes…but we don’t tend to do well here in spare NW flow precip set ups. 

I don’t know, my area has unexpectedly sucked with marginal events this season but I’m hoping this one will be different. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sun just came out. Tim posting about murdering trees for his view is typical and makes my blood boil with righteous anger. ******* Saruman. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS is rock solid. 

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Sun just came out. Tim posting about murdering trees for his view is typical and makes my blood boil with righteous anger. ******* Saruman. 

Good Lord.   Murdering trees.   

Trees grow like corn here.    We have to make sure they don't get tall enough to fall on the house during storms.     Our development protects 500+ acres and we have to manage the forest and keep the vast majority of it in its natural state and actively remove invasive species.    We are also allowed to selectively remove trees to maintain our views.   Sorry this offends you... but our development does so much more than a cookie cutter housing development to live in harmony with nature.

[GHweatherChris]

21 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Congrats bro!!

Thanks dude!

 

[GHweatherChris]

2 hours ago, MossMan said:

Congrats!!! 

Thanks bro!

 

[GHweatherChris]

2 hours ago, einsteinjr said:

Congrats on the job!

Thanks man!

[Phishy Wx]

Yeah Buddy!

000
FXUS66 KOTX 181712
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
912 AM PST Fri Feb 18 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and mild weather will continue today. A cold front on Saturday
will bring a chance of valley rain and snow and mountain snow to
the region. There is a good chance that the mountains will
receive moderate to locally heavy snow this weekend in the Cascade
crest and Idaho Panhandle. Much colder temperatures are expected
next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

...Snow returns to the mountains this weekend followed by colder
temperatures next week...

Today through Saturday: Winds have remained elevated through the
night across parts Chelan and western Grant county. This has kept
temperatures up in 40s. Given winds will likely continue over the
next several hours, have adjusted temperatures...min temps this
morning and the forecasted highs for today. 850mb temps do cool a
few degrees, but given the last several days we have seen temps
above NBM values, have wagered today will be the same.

One more day of ridging with dry conditions. Temperatures will be
about 5 to 10 degrees above average. Warmest temps will be across
the Cascade valleys into the Columbia Basin and Palouse/LC region
w temps in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Meanwhile more cloud cover
extending from the Okanogan Valley east to the ID/MT border and
down towards Spokane/CdA will keep temps in the lower to mid 40s.

Saturday the ridge begins to flatten as a cold front moves through
the area. High res models are showing precip moving into the
Cascades during the morning and then moving east into northeastern
WA mid morning and into the ID Panhandle by afternoon.
Precipitation type through the morning will be snow. During the
afternoon, snow will mainly be confined to the mountains above
about 3k ft with rain in the valleys, maybe mixed with snow but
accumulations would be minor if that.

Winds increase Saturday afternoon across the Wenatchee Valley
into the Columbia Basin, Palouse and West Plains. Gusts 25-35 mph
is expected. The winds remain elevated through the evening and
overnight hours from east of a line from Davenport to the Tri
Cities to just east of the ID border.

Saturday Night through Sunday: Snow will continue at Stevens Pass.
The heaviest accumulation will occur through the evening hours.
Given the lack of snow in the mountains for the last month, and
the potential to see 10-14 inches at the Pass, have decided to
issue a winter storm watch starting Sat morning and continuing
through Sunday afternoon.

Best chances for precip will be across the Cascades as well as
extreme eastern WA and the ID Panhandle. Late Sat night into Sun
there could be some light valley snow, but accumulations will
largely be a tenth of an inch or less. The `big winners` could be
Sandpoint and Kellogg where they could see 1-2 inches of snow
through Sun afternoon. As the trough digs into the Pac NW, we will
see 500 mb temps of -35C. Guidance is suggesting enough
instability for some locally brief heavy showers in the afternoon.
Is thunder possible? Perhaps, but not confident enough to add it
to the forecast. Looks like the best instability is from the
Palouse east into the Clearwater mountains. /Nisbet


...Strong Arctic cold front to deliver blustery winds and possibly
record cold temperatures between...

Sunday night through Wednesday....Big weather changes are afoot
during this period as we see a late season brush with winter. The
culprit will be an amplifying ridge of high pressure around 145w
with a subsequent deepening of a trough over the much of the
northwestern US. This deepening will send two disturbances
southward through the Inland NW. The first one comes through from
the on Sunday but gets hung up over SE WA and the ID Panhandle
overnight as a stronger system moves in from the north on Monday
into early Tuesday. This second system wont contain as much
moisture as the first, however it will be the more dynamic of the
two as an arctic jet dives well south of the region and a strong
back door cold front tracks SW over the Continental Divide and
down the Okanogan Valley. This will change the predominant
precipitation type from any rain or rain/snow mix to all snow. It
will also deliver bitter winds and some of the coldest
temperatures we have seen this winter. It will feel especially
cold considering the relatively warm and dry weather of late.

*Precipitation...Between Sunday night through early Tuesday
 evening precipitation amounts should be relatively light, with
 anywhere from a few hundredths to around a tenth of an inch over
 most of the SE third of WA and much of the ID Panhandle.
 Meanwhile heavier amounts are expected to occur over Clearwaters,
 Blue Mountains and locations south of the Silver Valley in
 Shoshone County. Most of this will fall in the form of snow or
 possibly a brief rain/snow mix followed by all snow as 850 mb
 temperatures plunge from -1 to -3c Sunday evening down to -6 to
 -12c by Monday afternoon. Pinning down snow amounts with this
 arctic front could prove difficult as much will depend on how
 fast it moves and whether it will get hung up or not. Typically
 this isnt the case, as backdoor cold fronts are fairly
 progressive. Nonetheless we suspect most locations over the
 eastern third of Washington and north Idaho will receive
 measurable snow. The biggest totals will occur with the heaviest
 precipitation totals over the southern half of the ID Panhandle
 into the Blue Mountains. This translates to amounts of 2-4
 inches. Right now we have the Spokane/CdA area with snow amounts
 around an inch or so, with values between 1-2 inches for the
 Palouse and into the LC Valley. Meanwhile amounts on the Camas
 Prairie and Lookout Pass are around 3-4 inches. Across central WA
 we are looking at smaller amounts. The arctic boundary will push
 into a fairly unstable air mass so we cannot rule out the
 possibility of brief but intense snow squalls. But more on that
 later as we can leverage some higher resolution models.


*Cold and wind...While the premise of widespread significant
 snows is small, the bigger and more widespread impact will be the
 intrusion of arctic air accompanied by stiff north to northeast
 winds. The winds will be first to arrive over the northern
 Purcell Trench on Monday morning and spreading down the Okanogan
 Valley and Columbia Basin later in the day over overnight. The
 winds will then continue into Tuesday or Tuesday evening. There
 are significant differences with model timing and strength, but
 our confidence is high eventually most locations will be subject
 to blustery north to northeast winds. Right now we have gusts
 ranging from 25-40 mph over much of the Inland NW, but the NBM
 and GFS have been consistent with producing the strongest winds
 over the eastern Columbia Basin. Not sure if this will pan out
 since the Purcell Trench and Okanogan Valleys are quite effective
 at funneling this cold air so we have edited the forecast
 accordingly. Meanwhile these winds will plunge 850 mb temps to
 some of the coldest (if not the coldest) readings this year.
 Values from the ensembles range from -13 to -18c on Tuesday. This
 will possibly translate to high temperatures in the 20s to mid
 30s on Monday and in the 20s for most locations on Tuesday.
 Meanwhile the overnight lows should drop into the single digits,
 however for protected locations with fresh snow they could very
 well dip into the negative numbers. So the combination of
 blustery winds and cold temperatures will spell even colder wind
 chill values. Many locations could see values in the -5 to -15f
 range between Monday night and Tuesday. Based on how warm its
 been of late, this will likely feel colder than it would in the
 heart of winter. So speaking of cold temperatures, we could very
 well see records broken for this time of year. The forecast highs
 of in the 20s could break records in Pullman, Wenatchee,
 Lewiston, Winthrop, and a few other locations. Many of these
 records were set in 2018.

Wednesday night into Friday...The arctic air mass begins to
slowly moderate with much lighter winds. The weather will likely
remain dry and clear. The next chance of any precipitation, and it
is a small one, will either arrive late Thursday or Friday as the
offshore ridge begins to near the coast and allows a weak system
to pass over the top of it. fx