PNW February 2022 - Winters Last Stand

[Phil]

 

[Meatyorologist]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

LOL still only “slows down” to 2sigma then bounces back up. What a beast. Remember when the Autumn EPS was all in on a weak SPV?

[Omegaraptor]

Leaving Corvallis!

[BLI snowman]

For those wondering where our rain has been going.... Juneau has already broken their record for wettest February. Immediately after also breaking the January precip record.

Climate change shifting that midwinter storm track further and further north.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

1 hour ago, Tyler Mode said:

A few spring scenes, and some late winter ones.  55 degrees currently after a low of 32.5.

Is that a Chief Joseph Lodgepole Pine?

[BLI snowman]

Interestingly though the previous February precip record setter for Juneau had been 1964.

That was another month that was bone dry in these parts. 0.78" at PDX and  1.66" at SEA. Of course an absolutely lovely spring and summer followed.

[MossMan]

All of this tree cutting talk reminds me of when we first moved in to our current place almost 4yrs ago, I met the neighbor to our north when getting to his fence line while looking for property line markers. Anyway we started talking and he owns a land development company, one of the first things he asked was if I was going to take down my trees and that he would do the work if I wanted to. As I look over at his nearly 10 acres and he has hardly any trees and just a crap load of grass…I said I might take down a few alders eventually but that I like having a wooded property, especially since taking down my trees would not improve any view except to view my neighbors property. He seemed a little put out by that, I think he has been in land development for so long that he just defaults to “almost every tree must go” haha! Now if I was up at our neighbors to the east that are also our fiends that have just an epic view of the water, Camano Island, and even the islands up north then yeah I would maintain trees to keep that view (though they are up so high that trees are not much of an issue) But down at our property it would do us no good to remove any healthy tree. 

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

For those wondering where our rain has been going.... Juneau has already broken their record for wettest February. Immediately after also breaking the January precip record.

Climate change shifting that midwinter storm track further and further north.

with that in mind maybe the southern jet shifts north in El Nino to the PNW?

[TacomaWaWx]

49/43 here today. Sun did manage to come out this afternoon. 

[TacomaWaWx]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Interestingly though the previous February precip record setter for Juneau had been 1964.

That was another month that was bone dry in these parts. 0.78" at PDX and  1.66" at SEA. Of course an absolutely lovely spring and summer followed.

These stats will make Tim nervous. 

[TT-SEA]

17 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

These stats will make Tim nervous. 

Indeed... just a -5 departure at SEA for JJA and rainfall way above normal.     I would not plan on that type of summer this year.    

I will say that last summer ended up within 1 degree of normal at SEA and it was a spectacular summer out here with the major exception of the last week of June which I despised.    Anything around normal is fine with me.  

 

[TacomaWaWx]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Indeed... just a -5 departure at SEA for JJA and rainfall way above normal.     I would not plan on that type of summer this year.    

I will say that last summer ended up within 1 degree of normal at SEA and it was a spectacular summer out here with the major exception of the last week of June which I despised.    Anything around normal is fine with me.  

 

Wasn’t as bad as some recent ones but it was too dry. I still can’t believe that heatwave happened. Hopefully a once in a lifetime thing…I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw something like that again in like 10-20 years from now though. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Wasn’t as bad as some recent ones but it was too dry. I still can’t believe that heatwave happened. Hopefully a once in a lifetime thing…I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw something like that again in like 10-20 years from now though. 

I would be fine with never getting above 90.    Of course I also don't want summer high temps below 70.   I am hard to please... but luckily climo in right in that range.  

[Gradient Keeper]

1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

Leaving Corvallis!

Safe travels!

00z ECMWF in 4 hours 41 minutes

[Front Ranger]

NWS has highs on Tue/Wed next week right around 10. Near top tier for this time of year.

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I would be fine with never getting above 90.    Of course I also don't want summer high temps below 70.   I am hard to please... but luckily climo in right in that range.  

I’m fine with whatever as long as it stays below 85…some years that only happens a couple times (none in 2011) others years as much as 15-20 times. So even in the worst years that’s only like 20% of the days. 

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

NWS has highs on Tue/Wed next week right around 10. Near top tier for this time of year.

39 and 41 here Tuesday and Wednesday

[Blizzard777]

4 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

No sunshine at all here today and 46. Euro still looks pretty good and snow chances seem to be a little higher than a couple days ago. 

Down here in Portland it’s Spring warm!   Loved today…..out in the sun playing with addon tent for the 4Runner in a t-shirt  

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Down here in Portland it’s Spring warm!   Loved today…..out in the sun playing with addon tent for the 4Runner in a t-shirt  

Very spring-like here today as well.    But I have not moved the snowblower to the lower shed yet.   Its ready to go and probably be back in use on Monday.  

[MWG]

64/28 for today going to be even colder during the morning next week.

[Blizzard777]

3 hours ago, Phil said:

That poor guy sitting in the front.

 

 

New Disney ride !?!   Wow….that was total immersion for that fella up front! Natures air bag going off…..Yikes 

[Blizzard777]

3 hours ago, The Blob said:

I love how the one guy just sits there like that is normal. 

Lol…..once his brain sorted out things…..stage right he went! 

[Chewbacca Defense]

[Deweydog]

Couldn’t have asked for a better three weather days in Bend for February. Sunny, pleasant days and fireplace weather at nite.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

55/33 today.

[Omegaraptor]

Beautiful sunset between Sisters and Bend! Unfortunately I couldn’t get a picture. Now in Sunriver. Road was completely clear over both Tombstone and Santiam Pass. Didn’t quite realize before how steep the climb to Tombstone Pass or the drop afterward is!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

40F and hopefully some stars for a bit.

[Gradient Keeper]

--FRIDAY--NIGHT--MODEL--RIDING--

 

Think Cold and SNOW! C'MON!!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Gradient Keeper]

Hmmmmmm!

PARTY TIME!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 Ohhh, arctic trough digging out more. Hmmm!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 850s

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 Well the trough was digging out more initially. Didn't end up exactly as I hoped.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 Now we hope the westerlies break through...

[Tyler Mode]

5 hours ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Is that a Chief Joseph Lodgepole Pine?

Sure is!  Great eye!  Love the pop of yellow all winter!  Should be changing back to green in about two months.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

[Phil]

 

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Indeed... just a -5 departure at SEA for JJA and rainfall way above normal.     I would not plan on that type of summer this year.    

I will say that last summer ended up within 1 degree of normal at SEA and it was a spectacular summer out here with the major exception of the last week of June which I despised.    Anything around normal is fine with me.  

 

What’s the source for that? Hate those smoothed surface temperature graphs.

Interesting tidbit re: attribution. There is evidence for an overall decline in global cloud cover during the satellite era. If so, this will have contributed to the observed warming.

Depending on the altitude/latitude of the declines, a 2% decrease could actually explain the majority of the observed warming since 1980. But that cannot be confirmed with only the total cloud fraction.

Still, it’s interesting.

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[Gradient Keeper]

Westerlies are a comin'