PNW February 2022 - Winters Last Stand

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Yeah Buddy!

000
FXUS66 KOTX 181712
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
912 AM PST Fri Feb 18 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and mild weather will continue today. A cold front on Saturday
will bring a chance of valley rain and snow and mountain snow to
the region. There is a good chance that the mountains will
receive moderate to locally heavy snow this weekend in the Cascade
crest and Idaho Panhandle. Much colder temperatures are expected
next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

...Snow returns to the mountains this weekend followed by colder
temperatures next week...

Today through Saturday: Winds have remained elevated through the
night across parts Chelan and western Grant county. This has kept
temperatures up in 40s. Given winds will likely continue over the
next several hours, have adjusted temperatures...min temps this
morning and the forecasted highs for today. 850mb temps do cool a
few degrees, but given the last several days we have seen temps
above NBM values, have wagered today will be the same.

One more day of ridging with dry conditions. Temperatures will be
about 5 to 10 degrees above average. Warmest temps will be across
the Cascade valleys into the Columbia Basin and Palouse/LC region
w temps in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Meanwhile more cloud cover
extending from the Okanogan Valley east to the ID/MT border and
down towards Spokane/CdA will keep temps in the lower to mid 40s.

Saturday the ridge begins to flatten as a cold front moves through
the area. High res models are showing precip moving into the
Cascades during the morning and then moving east into northeastern
WA mid morning and into the ID Panhandle by afternoon.
Precipitation type through the morning will be snow. During the
afternoon, snow will mainly be confined to the mountains above
about 3k ft with rain in the valleys, maybe mixed with snow but
accumulations would be minor if that.

Winds increase Saturday afternoon across the Wenatchee Valley
into the Columbia Basin, Palouse and West Plains. Gusts 25-35 mph
is expected. The winds remain elevated through the evening and
overnight hours from east of a line from Davenport to the Tri
Cities to just east of the ID border.

Saturday Night through Sunday: Snow will continue at Stevens Pass.
The heaviest accumulation will occur through the evening hours.
Given the lack of snow in the mountains for the last month, and
the potential to see 10-14 inches at the Pass, have decided to
issue a winter storm watch starting Sat morning and continuing
through Sunday afternoon.

Best chances for precip will be across the Cascades as well as
extreme eastern WA and the ID Panhandle. Late Sat night into Sun
there could be some light valley snow, but accumulations will
largely be a tenth of an inch or less. The `big winners` could be
Sandpoint and Kellogg where they could see 1-2 inches of snow
through Sun afternoon. As the trough digs into the Pac NW, we will
see 500 mb temps of -35C. Guidance is suggesting enough
instability for some locally brief heavy showers in the afternoon.
Is thunder possible? Perhaps, but not confident enough to add it
to the forecast. Looks like the best instability is from the
Palouse east into the Clearwater mountains. /Nisbet


...Strong Arctic cold front to deliver blustery winds and possibly
record cold temperatures between...

Sunday night through Wednesday....Big weather changes are afoot
during this period as we see a late season brush with winter. The
culprit will be an amplifying ridge of high pressure around 145w
with a subsequent deepening of a trough over the much of the
northwestern US. This deepening will send two disturbances
southward through the Inland NW. The first one comes through from
the on Sunday but gets hung up over SE WA and the ID Panhandle
overnight as a stronger system moves in from the north on Monday
into early Tuesday. This second system wont contain as much
moisture as the first, however it will be the more dynamic of the
two as an arctic jet dives well south of the region and a strong
back door cold front tracks SW over the Continental Divide and
down the Okanogan Valley. This will change the predominant
precipitation type from any rain or rain/snow mix to all snow. It
will also deliver bitter winds and some of the coldest
temperatures we have seen this winter. It will feel especially
cold considering the relatively warm and dry weather of late.

*Precipitation...Between Sunday night through early Tuesday
 evening precipitation amounts should be relatively light, with
 anywhere from a few hundredths to around a tenth of an inch over
 most of the SE third of WA and much of the ID Panhandle.
 Meanwhile heavier amounts are expected to occur over Clearwaters,
 Blue Mountains and locations south of the Silver Valley in
 Shoshone County. Most of this will fall in the form of snow or
 possibly a brief rain/snow mix followed by all snow as 850 mb
 temperatures plunge from -1 to -3c Sunday evening down to -6 to
 -12c by Monday afternoon. Pinning down snow amounts with this
 arctic front could prove difficult as much will depend on how
 fast it moves and whether it will get hung up or not. Typically
 this isnt the case, as backdoor cold fronts are fairly
 progressive. Nonetheless we suspect most locations over the
 eastern third of Washington and north Idaho will receive
 measurable snow. The biggest totals will occur with the heaviest
 precipitation totals over the southern half of the ID Panhandle
 into the Blue Mountains. This translates to amounts of 2-4
 inches. Right now we have the Spokane/CdA area with snow amounts
 around an inch or so, with values between 1-2 inches for the
 Palouse and into the LC Valley. Meanwhile amounts on the Camas
 Prairie and Lookout Pass are around 3-4 inches. Across central WA
 we are looking at smaller amounts. The arctic boundary will push
 into a fairly unstable air mass so we cannot rule out the
 possibility of brief but intense snow squalls. But more on that
 later as we can leverage some higher resolution models.


*Cold and wind...While the premise of widespread significant
 snows is small, the bigger and more widespread impact will be the
 intrusion of arctic air accompanied by stiff north to northeast
 winds. The winds will be first to arrive over the northern
 Purcell Trench on Monday morning and spreading down the Okanogan
 Valley and Columbia Basin later in the day over overnight. The
 winds will then continue into Tuesday or Tuesday evening. There
 are significant differences with model timing and strength, but
 our confidence is high eventually most locations will be subject
 to blustery north to northeast winds. Right now we have gusts
 ranging from 25-40 mph over much of the Inland NW, but the NBM
 and GFS have been consistent with producing the strongest winds
 over the eastern Columbia Basin. Not sure if this will pan out
 since the Purcell Trench and Okanogan Valleys are quite effective
 at funneling this cold air so we have edited the forecast
 accordingly. Meanwhile these winds will plunge 850 mb temps to
 some of the coldest (if not the coldest) readings this year.
 Values from the ensembles range from -13 to -18c on Tuesday. This
 will possibly translate to high temperatures in the 20s to mid
 30s on Monday and in the 20s for most locations on Tuesday.
 Meanwhile the overnight lows should drop into the single digits,
 however for protected locations with fresh snow they could very
 well dip into the negative numbers. So the combination of
 blustery winds and cold temperatures will spell even colder wind
 chill values. Many locations could see values in the -5 to -15f
 range between Monday night and Tuesday. Based on how warm its
 been of late, this will likely feel colder than it would in the
 heart of winter. So speaking of cold temperatures, we could very
 well see records broken for this time of year. The forecast highs
 of in the 20s could break records in Pullman, Wenatchee,
 Lewiston, Winthrop, and a few other locations. Many of these
 records were set in 2018.

Wednesday night into Friday...The arctic air mass begins to
slowly moderate with much lighter winds. The weather will likely
remain dry and clear. The next chance of any precipitation, and it
is a small one, will either arrive late Thursday or Friday as the
offshore ridge begins to near the coast and allows a weak system
to pass over the top of it. 

Wow... that is a long write up! 

[TT-SEA]

Side note... I bet some trees died to build Andrew's house.   That is pure evil.    He should be living in a tent outside and not using the renewable resources that God gave us.  

[Chewbacca Defense]

2 hours ago, GHweatherChris said:

Perfect time for some potential goodies, start my new job on Monday morning, 100% work from home all the time!!

Congrats!!!!!!!  What kind of work will you be doing?

[Gradient Keeper]

2 hours ago, GHweatherChris said:

Perfect time for some potential goodies, start my new job on Monday morning, 100% work from home all the time!!

Congratulations!

[Gradient Keeper]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

EPS ensemble mean dips to -10.5C at PDX. 

EURO not flinching at all. Moses Lake -18.1c coldest yet for the Columbia Basin.

[TT-SEA]

15 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Thanks man!

That is awesome.   Are you still planning to open the restaurant at some point?

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Side note... I bet some trees died to build Andrew's house.   That is pure evil.    He should be living in a tent outside and not using the renewable resources that God gave us.  

next time you have to take down any decent size fir/pine/cedar etc i'm always looking for nice straight logs for our sawmill. 8-10ft sections over 8 in diameter 

[FroYoBro]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Side note... I bet some trees died to build Andrew's house.   That is pure evil.    He should be living in a tent outside and not using the renewable resources that God gave us.  

The Saruman comment made me laugh though. Have to give it to him there. 

[The Blob]

Beautiful day

[SilverFallsAndrew]

21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Side note... I bet some trees died to build Andrew's house.   That is pure evil.    He should be living in a tent outside and not using the renewable resources that God gave us.  

Well what are you doing with the wood. Are they just feeding it into the wood chipper or are they actually going to put it to use? I burn firewood, mainly from deadfalls, and limbs that fall. 

It just came off as typically out of touch, kill the trees so you can have a view. Talk about vapid. 

[Phil]

Crazy.

 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well what are you doing with the wood. Are they just feeding it into the wood chipper or are they actually going to put it to use? I burn firewood, mainly from deadfalls, and limbs that fall. 

It just came off as typically out of touch, kill the trees so you can have a view. Talk about vapid. 

Its called yard maintenance in a place that gets almost 100 inches of rain a year.    Trees grow like weeds.   And we will use the wood for firewood and we also have someone who wants to haul the rest out for us because they heat their home entirely with wood burning stoves.     Trees are dying to keep people alive.   Sad deal.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Anyone have an analog for this? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Its called yard maintenance in a place that gets almost 100 inches of rain a year.    Trees grow like weeds.   And we will use the wood for firewood and we also have someone who wants to haul the rest out for us because they heat their home entirely with wood burning stoves.     Trees are dying to keep people alive.   Sad deal.   

I heat my home exclusively with wood too... Glad you are using their bodies for good. 

[Phil]

That poor guy sitting in the front.

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Crazy.

 

Have you seen the CFS?!

[Phil]

@SilverFallsAndrew Your bingeing on the CFS is almost as much of a forum classic as Gordon’s fisherman.  

[The Blob]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

That poor guy sitting in the front.

 

 

I love how the one guy just sits there like that is normal. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

@SilverFallsAndrew Your bingeing on the CFS is almost as much of a forum classic as Gordon’s fisherman.  

The eye candy the eye candy!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

But in all seriousness, March could be active in the PNW. 

[GHweatherChris]

30 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is awesome.   Are you still planning to open the restaurant at some point?

Yep, and being able to work from home and be off at noon everyday is perfect to keep working towards that dream!!

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I heat my home exclusively with wood too... Glad you are using their bodies for good. 

Can you imagine the environmental disaster if everyone heated their homes solely with wood burning stoves?   Our forests would be destroyed and the air quality would be a complete nightmare every winter.   Thankfully that is not the case.

[GHweatherChris]

34 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Congrats!!!!!!!  What kind of work will you be doing?

Thanks, Dispatch Monitoring Specialist for a security company.

[Tyler Mode]

A few spring scenes, and some late winter ones.  55 degrees currently after a low of 32.5.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ICON is ROCK SOLID. 

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Can you imagine the environmental disaster if everyone heated their homes solely with wood burning stoves?   Our forests would be destroyed and the air quality would be a complete nightmare every winter.   Thankfully that is not the case.

We need this.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-60312633

[TT-SEA]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Can you imagine the environmental disaster if everyone heated their homes solely with wood burning stoves?   Our forests would be destroyed and the air quality would be a complete nightmare every winter.   Thankfully that is not the case.

I don't even run the heater here. Even if it's like 32F I just wear a sweater. Way more comfortable and saves time and effort.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z is kolder.

[Phishy Wx]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

18z is kolder.

was going to say Druncle is a degree or two colder

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow, this is SORT OF exciting...

 

[BLI snowman]

Shame it's looking so dry. Nice airmass.

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow, this is SORT OF exciting...

 

 

Some 2/16/1993 vibes there, Andrew.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1993/us0216.php

Later that week.....

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

 

Some 2/16/1993 vibes there, Andrew.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1993/us0216.php

Later that week.....

Oh

My

God

[SilverFallsAndrew]

60 at Horse Creek up at 3400'. Should be a little cooler soon. 

[Loniu7]

1 hour ago, The Blob said:

Beautiful day

I meant that to be a

[FroYoBro]

8 minutes ago, Loniu7 said:

I meant that to be a

Lol. You can just change the reactions by clicking on it again at anytime. 

[Jbolin]

GODDAMMIT Tim,

 

Would you do something about all this f***** rain already.

 

Uggghhh

[Gradient Keeper]

52 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

18z is kolder.

Yep. Moved towards the EURO/EPS. 850s PDX -12c. Here we go!

00z GFS in 4 hours 41 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]