Models are drifting back southward with the Dec. 30/31 system. We may end up with little or even no rain at all.

Yeah Phil mostly is good with the big picture stuff but I don’t know how much he knows about the precip averages or how that pattern translates to rainfall in the PNW. (Not a diss Phil)

Had time to take a more detailed look at things today. My take on the second half of January is, if the retraction of the Pacific jet is substantial and *holds* as the MJO returns to the E-Hem, then the odds of an arctic airmass advecting into SW-Canada/PNW is actually very high. That’s a big if, though. Has not cooperated at all thus far. Would need the next -EAMT/-dAAMt to be timed with the poleward-propagating -AAM moat reaching the critical latitudes to amplify the NPAC high. I’ll give it 60/40 odds (climo at this time for any given winter is more like 30/70, FWIW).

Our winter is half over while it’s often just starting in the east around now.

I noticed that too. Extrapolate out to February and it looks tanked.