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2017 California/Southwest Weather Thread

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#51
Chris

Posted 10 January 2017 - 02:27 PM

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GFS says a lot more precip headed your way.

 

screenshot_92.png


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#52
happ

Posted 10 January 2017 - 06:06 PM

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GFS says a lot more precip headed your way.

 

screenshot_92.png

 

It would be great to keep this pattern going; even in regular rain seasons there are storms generally every 2-3 weeks. The drought deficit is lowering significantly esp in northern 2/3rd of California.

 

60/ 50



#53
happ

Posted 10 January 2017 - 09:52 PM

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Good shower now; looks like an evening of rainfall :P



#54
richard mann

Posted 11 January 2017 - 12:49 AM

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(.. cross-reference.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1445-mid-late-fall-early-winter-2016-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=205355


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#55
happ

Posted 11 January 2017 - 08:38 AM

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I'm a bit confused by the NWS_LA discussion that overnight/ current rainfall was insignificant! I have 0.80 since last night.


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#56
happ

Posted 11 January 2017 - 12:22 PM

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‘This is a big deal’: Storms could spell end to historic drought"

 

http://www.sfchronic...nd-10848802.php



#57
happ

Posted 11 January 2017 - 05:45 PM

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Rain data suggests orographic lift greatly help boost totals around Pasadena [ie. San Rafael Hills: 1.85]. Next storm tomorrow!

 

65/ 56

 

0.80

Jan: 2.35 



#58
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 11 January 2017 - 07:23 PM

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We have been getting the tail end of all these storms, which is better than nothing, but I'm hoping for another one to bring at least an inch of rain.

 

The sun did come out this afternoon before more clouds started to move in around sunset.



#59
Thunder98

Posted 12 January 2017 - 05:48 AM

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I'm no longer in Exceptional drought!!

 

179632d1484228745-winter-thread-2016-17-


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#60
Andie

Posted 12 January 2017 - 06:54 AM

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‘This is a big deal’: Storms could spell end to historic drought"
 
http://www.sfchronic...nd-10848802.php


Great news for you guys. Hope this fills those reservoirs.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.


#61
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 12 January 2017 - 07:56 AM

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It's been raining for the last few hours at Fullerton Airport, but not a single drop down here in Irvine so far. Looking like a "pick and choose" storm that will once again bypass most of San Diego County.



#62
happ

Posted 12 January 2017 - 08:28 AM

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Great news for you guys. Hope this fills those reservoirs.

 

Thanks Andie

 

I recall the Texas drought in 2011; about the same time that California entered its current drought. Seems that lower middle latitude climates are prone to drought.



#63
happ

Posted 12 January 2017 - 08:46 AM

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The trough is moving southwest to off Baja. Perhaps the elongated position helped Los Angeles. Past an inch now and it is still raining.   

 

51°



#64
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 12 January 2017 - 12:29 PM

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Rain has stopped for now, but it looks like more is coming.



#65
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 12 January 2017 - 02:12 PM

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It has been raining heavily for at least half an hour here, but Fullerton Airport is getting only light rain.

#66
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 12 January 2017 - 04:06 PM

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Looks like no one finds the rain too exciting. What do we need to get some activity here? 100 mph winds with hail and thunderstorms and tornadoes?

#67
Thunder98

Posted 12 January 2017 - 06:41 PM

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More rain will continue after the break.

 

Attached File  SantaMariawxforecast45.1.PNG   31.16KB   0 downloads

 

 

Attached File  SantaMariawxforecast45.PNG   54.14KB   0 downloads

 

610prcp.new.gif

 

 

 

 


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#68
happ

Posted 12 January 2017 - 06:56 PM

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Convective shower this afternoon; nothing since but a great day for viewing/ getting out in the rain. Slight flooding in front of my house.

 

56/ 52

 

1.58

 

Rainyear: 10.49

 

Sorry for the size of photo

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#69
snow_wizard

Posted 12 January 2017 - 08:49 PM

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I knew you guys were going to score this winter. It had suppressed jet written all over it.
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Death To Warm Anomalies!
 
winter.jpg

Winter 2016-17 Stats

Total snow = 9.8"
Days Min 32 or below = 61
Days Max 32 or below = 1
Days Max Below 40 = 29
Coldest Min = 16

#70
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 12 January 2017 - 09:57 PM

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Still raining here. John Wayne Airport always has one of the lowest rainfall totals in any storm.



#71
Thunder98

Posted 13 January 2017 - 06:09 AM

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It is a currently a chilly 33F 



#72
happ

Posted 13 January 2017 - 08:18 AM

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It is a currently a chilly 33F 

 

Near consistent onshore flow has made it difficult to attain cold minimums this month. Statistically average mean temps actually rise in January [60.6°] making December [59.5°] the coldest month.  

 

How did Santa Maria fare during recent storms? Above normal rainfall?


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#73
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 13 January 2017 - 08:41 PM

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The desert got some rain today from our slow moving cutoff low and it looks like San Diego could still get something too.

We should have a massive wildflower bloom in the spring.

Five straight days of rain for Southern California.
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#74
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 13 January 2017 - 09:48 PM

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Just got another brief shower here. It probably did not amount to much.

#75
Thunder98

Posted 14 January 2017 - 07:11 AM

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Near consistent onshore flow has made it difficult to attain cold minimums this month. Statistically average mean temps actually rise in January [60.6°] making December [59.5°] the coldest month.  

 

How did Santa Maria fare during recent storms? Above normal rainfall?

 

I'm at 9.47" of rain this water year so far (Sept 1st-Aug 31st) Which is between 150%-200% of average so far. I'm only around 4 inches away from my annual average.

 

Attached File  raintotalsofar.PNG   21.16KB   0 downloads


Edited by Thunder98, 14 January 2017 - 07:11 AM.

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#76
happ

Posted 14 January 2017 - 09:58 AM

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Only some desert communities are currently below normal. But it is Important that a progressive pattern of more storms continue for at least the next 2-3 months.

 

  

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#77
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 14 January 2017 - 08:25 PM

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First warm and sunny day in quite a while today. Got to see sunshine after 5 PM for the first time since November 5.



#78
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 14 January 2017 - 11:15 PM

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I knew you guys were going to score this winter. It had suppressed jet written all over it.

 

This season has been worlds better than the last few across the entire state so far. Plentiful snowfall in the mountains and a good deal of rain even in Socal. I have recorded nearly 10 inches of rain here in Orange since July 1 and more is likely later next week.


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#79
happ

Posted 15 January 2017 - 09:05 AM

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Encouraging model agreement on a series of storms this week. B)  

 

Saturday: 70/ 49


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#80
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 15 January 2017 - 03:30 PM

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Eddy is generating a strong wind today. Still, it is a very nice day.

#81
happ

Posted 16 January 2017 - 09:19 AM

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Tule fog thick in the Central Valley

 

 

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#82
happ

Posted 16 January 2017 - 12:17 PM

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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1125 AM PST Mon Jan 16 2017

...SERIES OF PACIFIC STORMS TO IMPACT CALIFORNIA THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY...

CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING FOR A SIGNIFICANT WET PERIOD ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA BEGINNING THURSDAY JANUARY 19TH...AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY JANUARY 24TH. UNLIKE THE LAST Series
OF STORMS...THE STORM TRACK LATER THIS WEEK WILL BE SUPPRESSED
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH ACROSS THE PACIFIC TO INCLUDE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION.
LITTLE RECOVERY TIME IS EXPECTED BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

THIS WILL BE THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2010 THE DEVELOPING WEATHER
PATTERN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
ENHANCED RUNOFF INTO AREA STREAMS AND MAIN-STEM RIVERS. IN
ADDITION...AFTER THE FIRST AND SECOND STORMS...THE SOILS WILL
LIKELY HAVE LITTLE CAPACITY TO ABSORB MUCH MORE RAIN...WITH MOST
OF IT BECOMING RUNOFF.

THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE STRONGER SYSTEMS THIS WEEKENDAND EARLY NEXT WEEK...DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL
EXIST IN AND BELOW RECENT BURN SCARS AND IN POORLY DRAINED URBAN
AREAS.

Some very preliminary 6-DAY forecast rainfall totals for Thursday
through Tuesday of next week...

Coast...........2 to 4 inches.
Valleys.........3 to 5 inches.
Mountains.......5 to 10 inches.
Upper deserts...1 to 3 inches.
Lower deserts...1 to 2 inchES.

SOME FAVORED COASTAL SLOPES COULD RECEIVE A FOOT OR MORE OF RAIN.
SNOW LEVELS WILL FLUCTUATE MOSTLY BETWEEN 4500 AND 5500 FEET...
WHICH WILL HELP TO MITIGATE RUNOFF FROM THE UPPER MOUNTAIN SLOPES
INITIALLY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THE FREEZING LEVELS MAY
RISE FOR A TIME DURING THE FINAL STORM IN THIS SERIES. THIS COULD
AUGMENT RUNOFF. SEVERAL FEET OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN COMMUNITIES BY NEXT TUESDAY.

SEVERAL OF OUR RIVER SYSTEMS HAVE NOT RECORDED SIGNIFICANT FLOW
SINCE 2010 INCLUDING THE SAN LUIS REY...SANTA MARGARITA...AND THE
MOJAVE. THE SAN DIEGO RIVER RESPONDS MORE QUICKLY TO RAINFALL AND
RUNOFF AND WILL LIKELY EXCEED MONITOR LEVEL...FLOWING OVER SOME OF
THE LOWER WATER CROSSINGS IN MISSION VALLEY AT TIMES.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE SANTA MARGARITA...SAN DIEGO...WHITEWATER...MOJAVE...AND
TIJUANA RIVERS MAY RECORD SIGNIFICANT FLOWS.

* THE SAN DIEGO AND SANTA MARGARITA RIVERS MAY REACH FLOOD LEVELS.
  THIS WILL IMPACT TRAVEL THROUGH MISSION VALLEY... AND ON
  VANDERGRIFT AND STUART MESA ROADS ON CAMP PENDLETON. ROAD
  CLOSURES ARE POSSIBLE.

* FOR THE MOJAVE RIVER...PRESENT RAINFALL EXPECTATIONS WOULD NOT
  RESULT IN THE RIVER REACHING FLOOD LEVEL. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT
  FLOWS IN THE HIGH DESERT ARE RARE AND MAY IMPACT LOW WATER
  CROSSINGS AND AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS IN AND NEAR THE RIVER
  CHANNEL.

* THE WHITEWATER RIVER DRAINS INTO THE COACHELLA CANAL WHICH FLOWS
  THROUGH HEAVILY POPULATED AREAS IN THE COACHELLA VALLEY. LOW-
  WATER CROSSINGS MAY BE INUNDATED AND BARRICADED AT TIMES IF THE
  FLOW BECOMES MODERATE TO HEAVY.

* THE TIJUANA RIVER TENDS TO RESPOND QUICKLY TO HEAVY RAINFALL
  RATES...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE SOIL HAS BECOME SATURATED. RESIDENTS
  AND INTERESTS IN THE TIJUANA RIVER VALLEY SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
  FLOODING AT TIMES THIS COMING WEEKEND AND MAKE PREPARATIONS TO
  MOVE EQUIPMENT AND ANIMALS TO HIGHER GROUND IF NECESSARY.

* FLOWS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN LUIS REY RIVER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
  AFTER YEARS OF VERY LITTLE FLOW...DENSE OVERGROWTH HAS DEVELOPED
  IN THE CHANNEL. ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOW CAN RESULT IN FLOODING DUE
  TO TEMPORARY CHANNEL BLOCKAGES THAT MAY DEVELOP. LOCAL FLOODING
  IS POSSIBLE IN UPSTREAM AREAS FROM BONSALL TO PAUMA VALLEY. SOME
  ROAD IMPACTS OR CLOSURES ARE POSSIBLE... INCLUDING SHEARER
  CROSSING...COUSER CANYON AND LILAC ROAD.

A PRELIMINARY FORECAST FROM THE CALIFORNIA-NEVADA RIVER FORECAST
CENTER HAS THE SAN DIEGO RIVER REACHING 7.5 FT BY 6 PM PST FRIDAY.
THIS MAY CAUSE SOME CLOSURES OF LOW-WATER CROSSINGS IN MISSION
VALLEY THEN. WATCH FOR LAXRVSSGX ISSUANCES FOR RIVER FORECAST
LEVELS IN THE COMING DAYS...OR CHECK THE WEB AT:
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=SGX

SOME FLOODING IS LIKELY LATER THIS WEEK. EXPECT ROAD CLOSURES OR
DELAYS AT LOW-WATER CROSSINGS AND URBAN FLOODING AT TIMES OF
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. WATCH FOR UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WATCHES AND
WARNINGS AT WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

 



#83
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 16 January 2017 - 02:21 PM

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Looks like it could get pretty wet. However, they said the same thing last January before the few El Nino storms and they were much weaker than forecast.



#84
Thunder98

Posted 16 January 2017 - 04:18 PM

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Wow!

 

p168i.gif?1431475333


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#85
happ

Posted 17 January 2017 - 09:08 AM

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I like the description of a "full latitude trough" across the West Coast ushering in north Pacific storms all the way down to Baja. ;)

 

Monday: 65/ 50 
 


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#86
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 17 January 2017 - 04:49 PM

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High clouds moved in right before sunset today. Hopefully they will make for a colorful sunset.

#87
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 17 January 2017 - 05:31 PM

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High clouds moved in right before sunset today. Hopefully they will make for a colorful sunset.

 

Yes they did.

Attached File  IMG_20170117_172606.jpg   32.01KB   0 downloads


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#88
happ

Posted 18 January 2017 - 08:04 AM

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It is interesting that there is some anxiety being expressed and not about the upcoming series of storms into early next week but, rather, the likely prolonged dry period following all the rain. Dan the Weatherman pointed out that past years/ analogs [ie. 1996-97] that started quite wet to only go completely dry for the rest of the rain season starting in February. :o

 

Tuesday: 68/ 49



#89
FrostFuzz

Posted 18 January 2017 - 10:29 AM

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Wow the 12z GFS goes nuts with well over 3 inches of rain in a 9 hour period and over 4 inches total on Sunday in LA. When's the last time there's been a single day storm like that? 2010 didn't have anything like that. 2005? Models have been inconsistent with that storm in particular but what a run.

 

Now that I think about it I remember there being a storm... a quick search brings up November 30 2007. It dumped 2-4+ inches throughout the inland empire, but didn't hit the coastal areas anywhere near as hard if memory serves me correctly. Wunderground says Riverside got over 2 inches but LA only got half an inch. That was an unusual storm.


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#90
Jesse

Posted 18 January 2017 - 12:30 PM

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Glad to hear Southern California looks to get some needed rainfall.
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#91
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 18 January 2017 - 07:50 PM

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Rain has started, but looks like the main part of our first storm is tomorrow morning.



#92
happ

Posted 19 January 2017 - 06:36 AM

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Good amount of rainfall overnight [as usual] w/ approximately 0.70; it is raining lightly now.

 

Wednesday: 62/ 47



#93
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 19 January 2017 - 07:07 AM

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This January is now wetter than last year for KFUL and we are already way above October 2015-September 2016 for the 2016-2017 water year.


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#94
Bonk

Posted 19 January 2017 - 08:20 AM

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Conflicting rainfall reports from Modjeska  - a Weather UnderGround station reports 1.32 and the CNRFC site reports 1.07.  Rain is still falling.

 

Santiago Creek has been flowing briskly for the last 10 days and the Baja tree frogs have been croaking up a storm.

 

If the forecast holds, I expect it to be a gully washer on Sunday and Monday.


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#95
happ

Posted 19 January 2017 - 08:52 AM

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Conflicting rainfall reports from Modjeska  - a Weather UnderGround station reports 1.32 and the CNRFC site reports 1.07.  Rain is still falling.

 

Santiago Creek has been flowing briskly for the last 10 days and the Baja tree frogs have been croaking up a storm.

 

If the forecast holds, I expect it to be a gully washer on Sunday and Monday.

 

I see mosquitos are back. 



#96
Thunder98

Posted 19 January 2017 - 02:37 PM

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Now having these pop up heavy rain showers



#97
happ

Posted 19 January 2017 - 06:53 PM

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Took a walk around the neighborhood checking out the clouds and green hillsides this afternoon

 

63/50

0.77

 

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#98
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 19 January 2017 - 10:19 PM

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Most of the day was partly cloudy today. Looks like an exciting day tomorrow.



#99
happ

Posted 20 January 2017 - 09:47 AM

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Santa Barbara county has been one of the worse areas in the state for the drought. Lake Cachuma was nearly dried up until recent storms.

 

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service OXNARD CA
929 AM PST FRI JAN 20 2017

CAC083-201945-
/O.CON.KLOX.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-170120T1945Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Santa Barbara CA-
929 AM PST FRI JAN 20 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 AM PST FOR
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...

Flash flooding of on area roadways and small creeks is likely
occurring or imminent across the warning area. Numerous rock
and mudslides will also be occurring, especially near canyon roadways.
In addition, mud and debris flows will be possible across the Sherpa
and Rey burn areas.

At 915 AM PST, Doppler radar indicated very rain across Southern
Santa Barbara county, with several automated gauges showing
hourly rainfall rates in excess of one inch per hour. Refugio
Pass, just west of the Sherpa burn area, reported 1.93 inches
of rain in the past hour.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Santa Barbara...Lompoc...Montecito...Santa Ynez...Carpinteria...Solvang...
Vandenberg Air Force Base...Refugio State Beach...Gaviota...El Capitan
State Beach...Goleta...as well as the Sherpa and Rey burn areas.
 



#100
happ

Posted 20 January 2017 - 10:58 AM

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El Capitan beach campgrounds are flooding w/ multiple rescues

http://syvnews.com/n...6c31f2f1fd.html

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